R: PHX, S: FEATURES, D: 11/04/1999, B: Seth Gitell,

National - Election 1999

With the eyes of most political observers on the jockeying of the presidential candidates, many have missed what's been the most surprising trend of the 1999 electoral season -- a swing to the left by voters on the state and local levels.

To be sure, Republicans won control of the Virginia state legislature for the first time, and a key tax-cut initiative passed in Washington State. But those results are exceptions. Take the case of Maine, where a ballot initiative legalizing medical use of marijuana passed and an attempt to limit abortion rights failed. Also, in a widely watched contest in Falmouth, Maine, Christian conservatives suffered a defeat when voters rejected an attempt to repeal a local gay-rights measure.

Even more telling is what happened in New York, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis. Voters trounced a city charter-reform measure backed by New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani; underdog Democrat John Street edged out Republican Sam Katz as mayor of Philadelphia; and, in a turnabout that is likely to damage Governor George W. Bush's presidential run, Democrats took control of Indianapolis, a city that was formerly controlled by a key Bush ally, Mayor Stephen Goldsmith. The Democrats also captured the Nassau County Legislature in New York, the patronage-laden body that fueled the electoral dominance of former senator Alfonse D'Amato and Governor George Pataki.

"At the state and local level, we're seeing the re-emergence of a competitive party system," says Mitchell Moss, the director of the Taub Urban Research Center at New York University. "The Democrats are going to be highly competitive in the Northeast and the Midwest -- the key battlegrounds for the 2000 election."

The Down East results point to the voters' progressive tilt on social issues. "Maine's the first state on the East Coast in which patients will no longer have to fear growing and using medical marijuana," says Chuck Thomas, a spokesperson for the Washington, DC-based Marijuana Policy Project. "It shows that medical marijuana is widely supported by the public wherever it is on the ballot."

Likewise, the Maine abortion vote is encouraging to pro-choice activists. "We are breathing a sigh of relief today," says the executive director of Mass NARAL, Melissa Kogut, who hopes that results on the state level reflect the instincts voters will follow in next year's presidential race. "We're very nervous about the presidential election," she says. "[George W.] Bush has a very bad voting record. I just hope voters understand that and what it means in terms of Supreme Court [appointments] and potential federal legislation."

Activists are also hailing the defeat of a Christian conservative-backed attempt to repeal a local ordinance banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation -- which was passed last April in response to a statewide repeal of a similar measure. Mary Bonauto, the civil-rights director of the Boston-based Gay and Lesbian Advocates and Defenders, calls the Falmouth vote "a victory -- and a sweet one." Now activists have their eyes on California, where an initiative to ban legal recognition of same-sex marriages will be on the ballot next spring. "We hope that state will stand up and ban discrimination," Bonauto says.

The fortunes of Republican mayors could foretell trouble for the GOP as well. For Giuliani, in particular, the results were bad. Giuliani, all but certain to be enmeshed in a messy Senate contest against Hillary Rodham Clinton, was pushing for charter reform in an attempt to influence who his successor will be (he especially wants to block the ascendance of his frequent ideological and political foe, Public Advocate Mark Green). Voters said no.

"Giuliani put his prestige on the line and he was humiliated," says Henry Sheinkopf, a New York Democratic political consultant. Giuliani's defeat underlines the quality voters most dislike about the aggressive big-city mayor: his tendency to get everything his way. "The vote suggests that he has overreached and that he appeared heavy-handed in his attempt to win it," Sheinkopf says. "This means Giuliani faces a very tough contest and if he overreaches he could lose -- that's the lesson he ought to have learned."

Also in New York, the Nassau County Legislature, the body that powered Senator D'Amato's rise -- and helped George Pataki win the governorship of New York -- is now in Democratic hands. This could weaken Pataki, who has sometimes been at odds with Giuliani.

Goldsmith, who declined to run for re-election in Indianapolis, wasn't able to help the GOP retain control of the city. This is significant because Indianapolis helped pioneer many of the public-private initiatives that Goldsmith is lobbying Bush to adopt. In addition, the city is influential in conservative circles as the home of the Hudson Institute.

One issue does give hope to conservative activists, however, and that is tax reform. Local activists are praising the passage of Initiative 695 in Washington State, a measure that will abolish the annual excise tax on vehicles. Harold Hubschman, founder of the Commuter Tax Relief Coalition, hopes to get a similar measure on the Massachusetts ballot next year. "Americans really hate taxes on their cars," Hubschman says. This could set up the interesting prospect of two tax-cutting efforts on next year's state ballot: the car tax and the income-tax-rollback measure backed by Governor Paul Cellucci and Citizens for Limited Taxation (CLT). Although advocates for both initiatives say the tax-cut measures complement each other, having two such questions on the ballot could split the resources of those working to lower taxes in Massachusetts. Still, says Barbara Anderson, the executive director of CLT: "The voters have a choice of doing both of them. That's the whole point of ballot initiatives and ballot choice."

In one sense, all the major trends -- the rebuff of control freak Giuliani, the Maine state initiatives, and the passage of the excise cut in Washington -- suggest an electorate that puts a premium on individual freedom and shuns government authority. At a time when voters focus more on individual candidates than on party affiliation, the presidential contender who best harnesses this feeling in 2000 could prosper. At the least, Republicans are going to have to examine why events have turned in the Democrats' favor for the second consecutive year -- the anger over the impeachment debacle is no longer an excuse.