TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2002 — Late winter is the time MTV turns up the sex. The new steamy Real World, set in Chicago, is more graphic than ever. In a few weeks, MTV’s raunchy Spring Break Coverage will begin. But there was a surprising play made for this audience a few weeks early by Secretary of State Colin Powell last week, who told teens they should use condoms if they’re going to have sex.

Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Secretary of State Colin Powell stood behind his statement. "Any other statement is reckless and irresponsible." Few can deny the logic behind Powell’s words. "I believe condoms [are] part of the solution to the HIV/AIDS crisis, and I encourage their use by young people who are sexually active," Powell told the MTV audience. Of course, that’s not the way it went over in the White House, which still relies on religious conservatives for political support. According to Tim Russert, host of Meet the Press, Powell’s comments "created somewhat a firestorm in some segments of the Christian community." That’s not surprising. More interestingly, Powell went further than he had too — seeming deliberately to tweak these outspoken voices in a key Republican controversy: "Forget about conservative ideas with respect to what you should tell young people about," said Powell, just in case anyone missed the point.

Personally, I applaud Powell’s comments (one of the few times I’ve had opportunity to praise the Secretary of State, who’s generally too squeamish for my taste). Such sentiments might save lives, but they’re also controversial within the Republican coalition. Here’s my speculation as to what’s going on.

Powell has clearly lost the internal policy debate on the War on Terrorism. Even before the terrorist attacks on September 11, Powell had been warring with more hawkish members of Bush’s foreign-policy team, including Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. From the start of the War on Terrorism, Powell has taken a minimalist approach: limit the war to Afghanistan and Al Qaeda and go no further than necessary. Behind the scenes, Powell has fought staunchly against the expansion of the war to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. He also has favored what Foggy Bottom calls a more "even-handed" approach to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians — one which generally means cracking down on the Israelis and giving the Palestinians a pass.

In recent weeks, however, the hawks appear to have won. Bush called Iraq, Iran, and North Korea the "axis of evil" during his State of the Union address. The military appears to be preparing for war with Iraq. With a few qualifications, Bush appears to be closer to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon than ever. Every policy Powell has pushed for seems have fallen into the background.

Now, if Powell quit over these policy differences, it would constitute a major blow to America’s credibility in the world. Ever honorable, Powell realizes that American interests in a time of war outweigh his personal feelings. Perhaps Powell has laid the groundwork for a resignation — one that burnishes his liberal image — without tarnishing his credentials as a patriot. We’ll have to watch for the fallout from Powell’s pre–Spring Break address.