E-Mail This Article to a Friend The confidence game: A tale of two cities BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

It is my belief that Yankees fans have not been surprised — truly stunned and shocked by their team’s failure — since the evening of November 4, 2001. On that night, after receiving a solid seventh-game outing by Roger Clemens and a clutch eighth-inning home run by Alfonso Soriano off Curt Schilling, the Yankees sent closer extraordinaire Mariano Rivera to the hill to close out the Pinstripers’ 2-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks and thereby clinch the team’s fourth-straight World Series title. Rivera was, and still is, nearly unbeatable, and there was absolutely no reason for Yankees fans to believe that he would not come through as he always had.

Coming just seven weeks after the events of 9/11 that devastated New York City and its populace, Yankees-championship number 27 was practically preordained, and would have provided a temporary soothing balm to the Big Apple’s resident fandom. With Rivera, the game’s most successful post-season closer of all time, on the mound ready to convert his 24th-straight playoff save, there was no reason to doubt the impending outcome. The stars had already aligned a week earlier, when the Yankees had miraculously rallied in the ninth inning from two-run deficits in games four and five to steal those home contests and head for the desert with a 3-2 series lead.

That is why it was such a surprise when the D-Backs parlayed three hits and a Rivera error into two runs and a stunning 3-2 victory, giving the fledgling franchise its first championship, after only four years of existence.

Yankees fans have been disappointed the last two years as well, when their team lost to the eventual-champion Angels in 2002 and the Marlins in the Fall Classic last year, but since 1981 — when the Yankees dynasty of that era ended with a game-six defeat in the 1981 World Series — there has never been such a cataclysmic turn of events as the Snakes’ ninth-inning torching of Rivera.

Then we have the Boston Red Sox. Rare is the occasion when the team has truly surprised its fandom in a good way. While Yankees fans are astonished when their team falters, Red Sox fans have come to expect it — even when it happens in a manner that the most pessimistic dyed-in-the-wool Sox fan would never have come to expect.

We won’t go into the deep, dark history of the two franchises, because the story’s been retold too many times already, and frankly, it’s a bit one-sided. Suffice it to say that in the storied "rivalry" of the two century-old franchises, last year’s ALCS game seven was typical: a 5-2 eighth-inning lead for Boston was viewed in two diametrically different ways by fans of the two teams. Only the most foolhardy Sox fans could have been cracking the Champagne late in that memorable contest, because history dictated that no lead was safe (see WS game six, 1986); instead, and prudently, Boston fans asked last October, "How can they possibly blow this?" Yankee fans, on the other hand, while certainly nervous given the circumstances (Clemens shelled, Pedro on the hill), still were of one mindset: "We will manage to pull this out, even though we’re not sure how the Red Sox can possibly blow this." One team was brimming with confidence despite a three-run deficit and time running out; the other one was admittedly pleased with the situation but nonetheless looking over its shoulder for the lurking and inevitable specter of a Pinstriper comeback.

And so it was: Martinez tired, the One Who Must Not Be Named left his starter in too long, and a lack of clutch hitting in the remaining innings doomed the Red Sox. Mike Mussina, Rivera, and the hero du jour, Aaron Boone, put the finishing touches on the all-too-predictable outcome: a come-from-behind 6-5 Bronx Bomber victory in 11 innings.

Ever since 1978, when the Red Sox blew their 14-and-a-half-game August division lead in the AL East, it has been thus. Yankees fans not only have the belief that their team will find a way to win — somehow, some way — but also the rock-solid assurance that if that doesn’t happen, the flip side certainly will: the Red Sox will find a way to lose. The cast of characters changes, as do the GMs, managers, and batboys, but until history is for the very first time altered, then the psyche of the two franchises will remain the same. And since you-know-when, that has been the case, and the championship scoreboard certainly reflects that argument: Yankees 26, Red Sox 0. It doesn’t seem possible in a sport that has its ebbs and flows, its ups and downs, and its winners and losers, but it is.

This year was supposed to be different. Right. And I know what I wrote on Monday — that gobbledygook about it being only June and 88 games left. But here we are, heading into the Independence Day weekend, and the remaining fans of the ultra-loaded $125 million Red Sox are already relegated to talking about the bloomin’ wild-card race. More than half the season remains, but the division title has apparently already been ceded to the Empire Staters. And why not? If the efforts put forth by the Crimson Hose this past week in the Bronx are any indication, very little has changed despite the Sox’ upgraded roster and win-it-or-else philosophy. The same bugaboos raised their ugly little heads, and karma and destiny (along with obvious superior play) again settled on the shoulders of the Men in Stripes.

Boston came into the three-game clash having finally won a series after three straight lost, but its record over May and June was decidedly mediocre and hovered around the .500 mark. The Yanks, having lost six of seven to Boston in April, had gone on a 39-15 tear and led the division by five and a half games. Yet when you break down the three games of New York’s three-game sweep this past week, you see plenty of evidence that it was more than just defensive liabilities that cost the Sox three more games in the standings; it was the Yanks’ confidence, coupled with the Murphy’s Law enveloping the local nine. And for important games such as these were for Boston, there are three excruciating ways to lose: get blown out; take a lead and blow it late; and rally back from an imposing deficit only to again succumb in the final reel. The Sox gave their fans one of each.

Game one: Johnny Damon hits a pair of homers and David Ortiz hits one, but they’re all solo jobs, and Javier Vazquez stymies the rest of the potent Sox line-up in an 11-3 laugher. Twice Boston could have escaped potential disaster by turning routine grounders into outs, but instead the bobbles resulted in Yankee home runs. Vazquez, who had been beaten by Boston in two earlier outings, easily out-pitched Derek Lowe, who was let down by his defense but nonetheless gave up nine runs in just five innings in a continuation of his lackluster contract year.

Game two: eerily similar to last year’s game-six ALCS debacle. Tim Wakefield is staked to a 2-0 lead, and the Sox have the chance to blow the game open in the seventh when they load the bases with no outs with the top of the order coming up. A ground-out, a pop-out, and a called strike-out later, and the Empire Staters are out of it with Big Mo (mentum) and Little Mo (Rivera) both on their side. Let’s spare the details and cut to the chase: every time Boston made a miscue, it seemed to cost them, and on this night, a couple of critical Sox errors in the seventh and the subsequent eighth paved the way for New York’s 4-2 victory, which undoubtedly proved disheartening for rooters of the Olde Towne Team. But that was nothing compared to ...

Game three: Pedro needs to pitch well, and the Sox absolutely must have the getaway game. Instead, Martinez surrenders a two-run homer early to former Sox cast-off (and rightly so) Tony Clark, and another solo shot to October’s villain, Jorge Posada, and the Bombers are quickly up, 3-0, behind the improbable shutout (!) efforts of rookie Brad Halsey. The Admiral, who was shelled for five runs in three innings last weekend against the Mets, keeps Boston batters 9-1-2 hitless (0-for-10) through six. Then the real fun begins: the visitors manage to tie the score in the sixth and seventh, and the fans back home begin to believe that a turning point in the Sox’ underachieving season is at hand. Keith Foulke escapes a ninth-inning jam, recent acquisition Curtis Leskanic (along with some wacky managerial machinations on defense) weaves his way out of an unbelievable 12th-inning mess, and Manny Ramirez’s 13th-inning dinger lifts the Sox into a 4-3 advantage. By this time, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Posada, Enrique Wilson, and the vaunted Bomber bullpen are out of the game; left are Devils Rays alum Tanyon Sturtze on the hill, the DH lost, Gary Sheffield playing third, and no-namers like Bubba Crosby and Miguel Cairo in the line-up. In the bottom of the 13th, Leskanic quickly dispatches the first two Yanks, and heartwarming NESN camera shots display the Sox dugout, panning the likes of a smiling Lowe, Doug Mirabelli, and a thumbs-up-bearing Schilling. Every Sox player seems to be on the top steps ready to rush the field as Cairo faces his last strike.

Fans watching back in Boston rejoice; Yankees fans gather their things.

But not in the home dugout. "How will we win it, and how will they blow it?"

Leskanic has now apparently foresworn the wicked slider that seemingly clinched his impending win, and he tries to sneak a fastball by the once-overmatched Cairo, who doubles into the right-center gap — despite the deep positioning of right fielder Kevin Millar. Ruben Sierra, who collected a two-out single and resided on first, scores, and the game is tied again. Up comes former Sox catcher John Flaherty, the last Yankee position player available. He is batting .153. Is there any doubt as to what is to come?

Nah. Another fastball, another deep ball, this time over Ramirez’s head in left. The double sends Cairo to the plate with the winning run in the Yanks’ surprising-but-not-really 5-4 victory in 13.

Boston: smiles gone after a four-hour wait. New York: smiles in the a.m. when its long-departed fans read about it and start spreadin’ the news.

Same as it ever was.

Eight and a half back.

For Sox fans, there are two thoughts: damn this team. And thank God for the wild card.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com