E-Mail This Article to a Friend The AL contenders at the three-quarter pole BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

For New England baseball fans, after the histrionics of the 2003-’04 off-season, it seemed like the current MLB season would never begin. It began, but not all the glory that was anticipated this season has occurred. And all that has happened since last fall’s game-seven ALCS in the Bronx — Grady Little’s departure, the signings of Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke, Terry Francona’s hire, the 15-6 start, the .500 stretch thereafter, and the Nomar trade — has brought us to this point: 40 games left (give or take) to decide the post-season field. Only a quarter of the regular season remains, and, as usual, there is mayhem and excitement in the American League pennant and wild-card races.

For the sake of argument — with Minnesota holding a four-game lead in the AL Central and each of its division mates hovering around .500, let’s eliminate the Twins from this particular equation and concede them the Central crown. The Indians and White Sox have indeed put up gallant fights, but Minnesota’s balanced pitching certainly gives them the edge the rest of the way, and it’s difficult to believe that either the surprising Tribe or the injury-ravaged ChiSox will realistically emerge as a factor in the wild-card proceedings. That leaves five good teams fighting for three playoff berths, and what better time to break down the contenders’ schedules and hopes for reaching the coveted post-season?

Heading into the weekend, the Yankees hold a comfortable eight-and-a-half-game lead in the East, the A’s lead the West by just half-a-game over the resilient Rangers and a game-and-a-half over the Angels, and Boston and Texas are tied for the wild-card lead, with the Angels a game back. Who has the edge heading down the home stretch? Let’s investigate.

New York. Record: 76-44 (43-15 home, 33-29 away). Remaining games: 23 home, 19 away. Games remaining against sub-.500 teams: 24. Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 12.

The Yanks have scored 10 runs fewer than Boston this season, and given up 21 more than the Sox, yet the Pinstripers sit atop the East by eight-plus. How can this be? Simple: one-run games. New York is 19-12 in one-runners, while Boston is 9-17, and therein lies the difference. Couple that with the Bombers’ superior home record and enough depth (ahem) to allow them to overcome the numerous injuries to their pitching staff (along with Jason Giambi), and you have a typical Yankees powerhouse. It’s doubtful that the Empire Staters have even noticed that Boston has climbed to within shouting distance in the division, but even if they have, the similar schedules that each team will face in September should allow NY to ride it out and capture AL East honors for the seventh straight time. The Yanks’ critical stretch to put away the Bostonians will be September 3–15, when the Yanks meet the Orioles (against whom New York is already 11-2 this season) for six, the Devil Rays for five (all at home), and the Royals for three; during that same period, the Sox will be taking on the four AL West teams, including two series on the West Coast. Indeed, to the distress of Soxian fans everywhere, the Yankees will reach the post-season, but as the team well knows, nothing is guaranteed once it gets there — particularly this season. Especially with the way their superior but getting-up-in-years bullpen’s been overused.

Boston. Record: 67-52 (40-21 home, 27-31 away). Remaining games: 24 home, 19 away. Games remaining against sub-.500 teams: 25. Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 12.

The Red Sox have apparently shaken their malaise lately, having won seven of 10 in their recent homestand, but against competition like Tampa, Chicago, and Toronto, why shouldn’t they? With upcoming series against the White Sox, Jays, and Tigers looming, the Sox need to dismiss the patsies now if they are to survive September and hone in on a rematch with the Striped Ones come October. The Sox’ crucial test will begin August 31 and extend through September 12, when the team hosts the Angels and Rangers before flying cross-country to take on the A’s and Mariners. With a solid run against those West clubs, the balance of the schedule is cut and dried, with home-and-home series with the Yanks breaking up a late-September ledger that includes only the Rays and Orioles. Boston has pretty much dominated Tampa this season (winning 10 of 13), but the Birds have played the Sox much tougher than they have the Yanks, and the local nine’s struggles against Lee Mazzilli’s lads (having won only four of 11) is another big reason why the Sox’ deficit in the East is so significant. Still, Tampa and Baltimore should be eager to go home for the winter by the time Boston rolls into town for the season’s final two series, and given the West teams’ difficult slates that final week, the wild-card race could very well come down to the Sox’ success in those match-ups. What Boston does have going for it, though, is the possible return down the stretch of key components Mark Bellhorn (thumb), Pokey Reese (ribs), Kevin Youkilis (ankle bruise), and Trot Nixon (strained quad), not to mention an improved defense and, most important, the most imposing rotation this side of Oakland. After all, a $120-million payroll has to be good for something. And despite the squad’s seeming underachievement to this point, it is still only two games apart from last year’s Cowboys at this same point in time.

Oakland. Record: 68-52 (38-19 home, 30-33 away). Remaining games: 24 home, 18 away. Games remaining against sub-.500 teams: 20. Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 16.

The A’s appear to be in the driver’s seat for the final 40 games, since their rotation seems healthy again and Mark Mulder appears destined for a Cy Young–award season. Oakland has played solidly at home but struggled a bit as the visitor, but the schedule certainly favors it compared to the other two divisional contenders. The A’s can put some space between themselves and Texas/Anaheim almost immediately, as their upcoming ledger is loaded with pretenders (Tampa, Baltimore, Chicago, Toronto) from now until their three-game series in Boston begins on September 6. During that same time, the Rangers and Angels will be facing some imposing competition, and those two teams will need to hang tough during that span to stay in the divisional race. Sure, the A’s have a nasty closing run — nine straight roadies against their division mates, followed by the M’s and Angels at home to finish things off — but their West counterparts have it even worse, so look for the A’s to again host an ALDS.

Texas. Record: 67-52 (38-19 home, 29-33 away). Remaining games: 24 home, 19 away. Games remaining against sub-.500 teams: 15. Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 24.

It’s been a truly remarkable season for the Rangers, even as observers continue to anticipate and witness their ultimate downfall. It hasn’t come yet, and who knows? Maybe Texas will actually hold on to capture its first post-season spot since 1999. No matter what happens, it will be the Rangers’ first trip out of the cellar in five seasons, and who would argue that Buck Showalter is deserving of the Manager of the Year mantle? If the bubble is to burst, though, it will probably not happen until the final three weeks of the season, when the schedule is particularly brutal and will more than likely KO a pitching staff that has overachieved throughout this magical season. The Rangers must remain within striking distance at least until September 13, because the division will be decided in the subsequent weeks when the team is at Oakland and Anaheim, home with the A’s, M’s, and Angels, and finishes on the road in Seattle. Even worse, Texas has only one off-day between August 31 and the end of the season, and that’ll be tough on a rotation that boasts 39-year-old Kenny Rogers as its ace, along with a bevy of untested youngsters.

Anaheim. Record: 67-54 (33-27 home, 34-27 away). Remaining games: 21 home, 20 away. Games remaining against sub-.500 teams: 13. Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 22.

Still remarkably in the pennant race despite an unending string of injuries, the Halos are getting some folks back at just the right time, and are the only team in this discussion that has played as well on the road as it has at home (as evidenced above). Like Texas, though, Anaheim’s remaining schedule is not nearly as comfy as the other three teams highlighted here, and the Angels still have difficult road trips to the Bronx, Boston, Cleveland, Texas, and Oakland. Yao. The final week alone — three at home with the A’s, four at Texas, and three at Oakland — will be particularly defining, and will likely decide the wild-card participant should the contenders remain tightly-packed. Number-one starter Bartolo Colon has won seven of his last eight starts to keep the Angels afloat, but the rest of the rotation has been maddeningly inconsistent, and even the best bullpen in baseball can’t help if the starters routinely stake the opposition to big leads.

It ain’t Casey Kasem’s vaunted list, but the 40 biggest hits in the land begin to count down now, and it’s anybody’s guess who will emerge as the chart-topper once the infield dust settles on the first Sunday in October.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com