BY DAN
KENNEDY
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Monday, October 27, 2003
Kerry's fading candidacy.
Last week I ran into someone who described himself as a strong John
Kerry supporter, a politically savvy guy who used to work for the
senator. He urged me to investigate those polls that showed Howard
Dean trouncing Kerry in New Hampshire.
It's not real, he insisted.
He especially wanted me to check in with pollster John Zogby, whose
methodology, he claimed, showed that Kerry was doing far better
against Dean in New Hampshire than the other polls
suggest.
Well, on Friday, Zogby
reported
that Dean had opened up a 40 percent-to-17 percent lead over Kerry in
New Hampshire. "This is stunning," Zogby quoted himself as saying.
"This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?"
Yesterday, the Boston Globe
published poll
results that showed Dean
leading Kerry in New Hampshire by a margin of 37 percent to 13
percent.
It's still early, of course, but
it's not that early. In a large field in which no one has
really broken through, Dean has simply done more things right than
anyone else. He has managed the contortionist's trick of establishing
himself as the frontrunner and the insurgent simultaneously, and he's
raising a ton of dough -- meaning that, unlike past early surprises
such as John McCain (2000) and Gary Hart (1984), Dean will have no
problem capitalizing on a big New Hampshire win, if that is indeed
what lies in his future.
As for Kerry ... well ... he
remains the establishment's choice, a solid, stolid, intelligent
person with deep foreign-policy credentials and a mainstream liberal
voting record. But you have to ask: is this someone who is capable of
making up a lot of ground in a short period of time? He's not
exciting or flashy. He is incapable of explaining his complicated
position on Iraq in a soundbite. In other words, Kerry -- after
enjoying a brief moment as the consensus frontrunner earlier this
year -- may now be the fallback candidate: the guy voters turn to if
Dean implodes. And there's no sign that Dean is going to
implode.
I watched some of last
night's debate (confession:
I passed out cold about half-way into it), and thought Kerry got off
a few good lines -- especially his zing at Dean, who said he would
surround himself with good foreign-policy advisers. "We're electing a
president of the United States, not a staff," Kerry said.
But Kerry was, as usual, too quick
to cite his military service, as he did when defending himself
against Joe Lieberman, who had criticized him for voting against the
$87 million package in aid for Iraq. And there is the continued
logistical impossibility of breaking through at a debate when there
are nine candidates on stage.
The Boston Herald's David
Guarino and Andrew Miga think last night's debate was
a
good moment for Kerry. He's
going to need a lot more such moments.
The Great Savior, Wesley Clark,
appears to be going nowhere fast, but his presence does make it less
likely that the media will give Kerry a second look. And Dean keeps
doing his thing, and doing it well.
But first, are you experienced?
The Globe's Gordon
Edes yesterday on potential
Red Sox managerial candidate Bud Black: "[H]e has zero
managing experience, and Boston is no place for your first
job."
A few paragraphs later, on Willie
Randolph: "He hasn't managed before, but there's nothing wrong with
raiding the Empire, is there?"
Local the way Mr. Potter was
local. It's pretty hard to get worked about about the impending
demise about Fleet Bank, isn't it? The Globe's
Steve
Bailey breaks another big
story.
posted at 9:19 AM |
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MEDIA LOG ARCHIVES
Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
