BY DAN
KENNEDY
Serving the reality-based community since 2002.
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Thursday, January 15, 2004
Kerry's big move. John
Kerry's decision to spend nearly all of his time in Iowa appears to
be paying off in a major way. The Zogby
tracking polls, which have
been the talk of the political world the last few days, now actually
show Kerry to be in the lead in Iowa. The numbers: Kerry, 22 percent;
Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, 21 percent each; and John Edwards, 17
percent. How dramatic is this? Well, barely a week ago Dean was
leading with 25 percent, Gephardt was running second at 23 percent,
and Kerry was third at 15 percent.
What does any of this mean? Who
knows? All the experts argue that tracking polls are notoriously
unreliable. Still, it seems that Kerry is, all of a sudden, the hot
candidate, at least in Iowa.
But with Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry
essentially tied, and with Iowa's convoluted caucus system requiring
more than the usual amount of devotion from one's supporters, the
results of Monday's caucuses are going to depend heavily on
organization. This Todd
Purdum piece in today's
New York Times suggests that Dean and Gephardt have the
strongest organizations - although Kerry, who's been reaching out to
his fellow veterans, will be no slouch.
Of course, the very real
possibility exists that Kerry's roll-of-the-dice gamble on Iowa will
fail. He could still come in third, giving him zero bounce going into
New Hampshire, where Dean and Wesley Clark (who's skipping Iowa) are
the leading candidates. The latest
Boston Herald poll -
reflecting other polls - shows Dean at 29 percent, Clark at 20
percent, and Kerry at just 15 percent.
As I
learned recently, Kerry's
New Hampshire campaign has been all but moribund for quite a while.
What Kerry is banking on is that an unexpectedly strong showing in
Iowa - say, second place (especially if Dean falls to third) or, even
better, first - will give New Hampshire Democrats a reason to look at
him again.
A side note: one thing I've noticed
is that whenever I write about polls, I get e-mails from angry
partisans of one candidate or another lambasting me for focusing on
the horse race rather than "the issues." Well, of course, the issues
are important. But differences on Iraq (not so great as one might
suppose), health care, and tax cuts aside, the fact is that Dean,
Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, and Clark are all from the Democratic wing
of the Democratic party. (I'm not so sure about Joe Lieberman.) The
most important issue is which candidate will give George W. Bush the
toughest fight. And that starts with which Democrat is able to win
the nomination.
Hynes City Hall? I love an
idea put forth by Boston city councilors Paul Scapicchio and John
Tobin to move City Hall to the Hynes Center, and sell off the current
City Hall - and the disastrous sea of brick that surrounds it - to
private developers. Ellen Silberman has the story
in today's Boston Herald.
No doubt the idea is impractical: a
logistical nightmare combined with a one-time financial bonanza that
might not even cover the cost of the move. But, given that city and
state officials seem determined to kill the Hynes in order to boost
the dead-on-arrival South Boston convention center, the
Scapicchio-Tobin idea would at least keep the Back Bay alive and
vital.
LaPierre on the loose. I'm
not sure which is more ridiculous: the fact that WBZ Radio (AM 1030)
lets Gary LaPierre anchor the "local" news from Florida or the fact
that LaPierre sees nothing wrong with it. Suzanne Ryan
reports
in today's Boston Globe.
posted at 11:33 AM |
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Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
