BY DAN
KENNEDY
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Sunday, July 25, 2004
THE DIVIDED ELECTORATE. More
evidence that this year's election may be about the passionate base
of each party rather than swing voters: the latest New York
Times/CBS News poll,
which shows that 79 percent of potential voters have already made up
their minds, up from 64 percent at the same stage of the campaign
four years ago. Times reporter Robin Toner writes:
Rarely has a presidential
campaign been this intense, this polarized, this partisan, this
early. The conventions historically begin the general election
season, ending a lull after the primary season has wound down. But
for months now, the general election battle has been fully
joined.
Which is why Franklin Foer's New
Republic piece
(sub. req.) on consultant Bob Shrum's takeover of the Democratic
Party, and of the Kerry campaign, raises some worries about Kerry's
chances. Foer's main point about Shrum is that he's not as bad as
you've heard. (Well, that's a relief!) But his secondary point is
that Shrum is a master of focus groups and day-to-day tactics, not
strategy and vision. Foer observes:
In truth, Shrum's greatest
weakness is not the ideological inflexibility for which he's often
derided - even in private he did not urge Kerry to take more
liberal positions on gay marriage and the Iraq war - but rather a
strategic myopia. According to one consultant who has worked with
Shrum, in the heat of a campaign, "He's far more tuned into focus
groups and polling data than moral arguments." He has a gift for
churning out pithy lines and spin that will win a newscycle but a
harder time devising a grand message for the campaign. He may be
an excellent tactician, but former congressman Tony Coelho, who
chaired the Gore campaign, told me, "My concern is how good of a
strategist he is. In the campaign, Shrum against Karl Rove, I'm
not sure that we end up with the long stick." Indeed, during the
Kerry campaign, Shrum hasn't produced anything comparable to the
leitmotifs that Rove provided Bush in 2000. There's nothing akin to Bush's "compassionate
conservatism" or his relentless emphasis on "restoring honor and
dignity to the Oval Office" - or, for that matter, to Edwards's
"two Americas."
Of course, if ever there was a
candidate who needed help in crafting his million-and-one policy
ideas into a grand strategy, it's John Kerry. But given that Shrum
also has a reputation for not playing well with others, it may become
difficult for the campaign to reach out and help Kerry translate his
myriad little thoughts into two or three Big Thoughts.
MEDIA! CELEBS! (WELL ...) FOOD!
BOOZE! Nice to see the new South Boston convention center filled
last night at the Boston Globe-sponsored media party. It could
be a while before it's filled again. It would have been a great place
for the Democratic National Convention. Why didn't somebody think of
that?
The celebrity-journalist quotient
was rather low, which may have had something to do with the fact that
it was held on Saturday rather than Sunday, when much of the media
arrives. The Reverend Jesse Jackson and Bill Russell were there, and
Little Richard performed. The most notable media celeb I ran into was
New York Times columnist David Brooks, a nice guy whose very
aura exudes "Not a Media Celeb."
The Globe spent a reported
$500,000 on the party. The food was great and the booze was free -
wasted on those of us who had to drive home. The
best-line-of-the-night award goes to WLVI-TV (Channel 56) political
analyst Jon Keller, who told
the Globe's Geoff Edgers: "It's a good marketing ploy for the
convention center, and I thank the Globe for the free beer,
but Ferris wheels and open bars are a dangerous
combination."
Yes, there was a Ferris wheel. No,
Media Log did not get on it.
posted at 9:15 AM |
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Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
