BY DAN
KENNEDY
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Tuesday, September 07, 2004
POLLING 101. A course I
obviously need to take! Republican political consultant Charley
Manning explains to Media Log that "likely voters" comprise a subset
of "registered voters." I had it the
other way around.
So yes, according to the latest
USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, Bush leads Kerry among registered
voters by just one point, 49 percent to 48 percent. But among the
smaller group of registered voters deemed "likely" to vote, Bush
leads by seven points, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Someone posted a comment
making the same point.
Manning: "Although the reporter in
USA Today didn't make it clear, all of the 'likely voters'
are, of course, registered voters. 'Likely voters' is always the
number I look at first when I read a poll."
File under: D'oh!
posted at 11:57 AM |
2 comments
|
link
2 Comments:
Dan, do you read Ruy Teixeira's Donkey Rising? http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/
Best poll analysis anywhere.
I don't have a link, but I have read in several places that the methodology used to determine "likely voters" is frequently suspect.
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Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
