BY DAN
KENNEDY
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Wednesday, November 03, 2004
HOW BAD WERE THE EXIT POLLS?
Slate lived with them. And now it's dying with them. Here are
some hypes on Slate's
home page that are still up
as I post this: "The Latest Exit Polls: Kerry's Ahead in FL, OH, PA,
WI, MI, MN, NM, and NH"; "W in 2008?"; "Did Bush Blow It with
Hispanics?"; "How Bush Could Still Pull It Out." Not
pretty.
Looks like Zogby's
gone home. Nothing new since 5 p.m. No doubt he's drinking
heavily.
There are still scenarios under
which Kerry could win, but if he does, it looks like it will be with
a substantial deficit in the popular vote. Right now Bush is beating
Kerry by 51 percent to 48 percent - quite a bit more than by Bush
lost to Al Gore four years ago.
Does Kerry really want to lose the
popular vote by one million or two million and take office via an Electoral
College fluke?
"PURE, UNADULTERATED HATE."
Alan Simpson is prattling on to Tom Brokaw about the alleged hate
campaign directed by the Democrats against George W. Bush and
Simpson's friend Dick Cheney. All on one side, of course! That nice
Dick Cheney would never suggest that voting for John Kerry
would increase the likelihood of a terrorist
attack.
THE KIDS AREN'T ALL RIGHT. I
can't access the MSNBC exit polls directly for some reason, but
here's
what the Daily Kos says:
"MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29
bracket voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was
down. That's what's killing us."
posted at 1:06 AM |
5 comments
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5 Comments:
"There are still scenarios under which Kerry could win"
Even with Florida and Ohio called for the president, if the Colorado Proportional Representation proposition passes, Kerry could win with a couple votes from there. I have heard nothing on the Proposition. Finally did hear the 4th proportional vote for Maine 2nd District called for Kerry tonight.
Bill R.
1AM, Ohio marked Red -- If Kerry cleans the table from here, and Colorado stays unitary, and no appeals / provisional ballots / recounts change anything -- 269-269, it goes to the House and Senate. Bush lead in N.M. could make it clearer.
Provisional Ballots may make Ohio the Florida'04 with litigation for a month. The folks disenfranchised by long lines were done, and have done us, a gross disservice.
Bill R.
Bush lost the popular vote 4 years ago and was assigned the Presidency by right wing judicial fiat. I could care less if Kerry were to lose the popular vote and win an ec victory. Anything to get rid of Bush is fine by me. Now what do we have to look forward to, privatized SS, deficits, wars, right wing packing of the Supreme Court? As far as I'm concerned, my country is ruined for a generation at least.
Has anyone looked into whether the exit polls were as accurate in precincts with Diebold machines as in other precincts?
That's an excellent question, Anonymous #4. Let me know if you find out.
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Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
