Politics

Domino effect

by Seth Gitell

SENATOR O'BRIEN? The state treasurer could be one to watch if John Kerry leaves his seat for the presidential ticket.

With all the talk that the all-but-certain Democratic presidential nominee, Al Gore, will tap John Kerry as his number two, eyes in the Commonwealth are fixing themselves on Kerry's Senate seat. Among the names to watch: Mitt Romney on the Republican side, and Martin Meehan and Shannon O'Brien among the Democrats.

The Kerry-for-VP movement could gain momentum in light of George W. Bush's pick of Dick Cheney as a running mate. Kerry provides foreign-policy heft and could help the Democrats out-Vietnam the "chicken hawks" -- pro-military conservatives, like Bush and Cheney, who skipped the war in Indochina while Gore and Kerry both served there.

For the time being, if Kerry leaves his seat it will be up to the Republican governor to replace him. Will Paul Cellucci, as some Democratic operatives suggest, appoint himself to the seat and bump Lieutenant Governor Jane Swift into the governor's chair? Or will Cellucci -- as others are suggesting -- name former GOP Senate hopeful Mitt Romney (who is now in Utah overseeing the Winter Olympics), taking him out of contention for the 2002 governor's race? Others have floated William Weld's name in the past, too. But Big Red's move to Manhattan could disqualify him among Massachusetts voters.

In 2002, though, Democrats would be able to take a shot at any such Republican incumbent. And that prospect is prompting the mouths of what some political observers like to call "the entire wanna-be community" to begin watering. Almost everyone puts Joe Kennedy high on their list until it dawns on them that Uncle Ted might be less than enthused. Instead, the early money is on Representative Martin Meehan of Lowell, who would love to seek the seat once held by his role model, Paul Tsongas -- who also moved from the House into the Senate. Meehan is frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for governor, but the Senate post would allow him to enhance his already high national visibility. "With $1.6 million in his federal account, he's got the most money of anybody in the delegation by at least a half million," says a source close to Meehan. "Plus, his issues -- campaign-finance reform and tobacco -- play well nationally." The Senate is particularly interesting to Meehan because he can use that $1.6 million only in a federal race -- not a state run for governor.

Another potential heavyweight would be State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien. Although she is said to have her eye on the governor's office, her ability to raise money from EMILY's List and other women's groups could give her a huge boost in a national election.

All in all, the prospect of a governor's race and a Senate race in the same year would have political junkies licking their chops. There's even talk that former mayor Ray Flynn might throw his hat into the ring, using his time as ambassador to the Vatican to show that he has something like the necessary Washington experience. Stay tuned.