Why Gore will win, continued

by Robert David Sullivan

How did the Republicans get into this situation? In the 1980s, the Democratic Party lost three presidential elections by foolishly trying to appeal to "special-interest groups" -- that is, they counted on winning almost the entire black vote, gay vote, Jewish vote, and so on. But the Republicans have since done their part to assist this Democratic strategy, making sure that their own share of the vote among many of these groups approaches zero.

In the early '90s, for example, the California GOP decided that immigrant-bashing would be a fine way to attract new voters. This was only a couple of years before a labor shortage left American employers begging for workers of any nationality, and before Ricky Martin redefined the meaning of mainstream music. (You know things have changed when CBS, home of the Country Music Awards and Walker, Texas Ranger, starts televising the Latin Grammys in prime time.) Bush may be able to win the Hispanic vote in Texas this fall, but he'll be crippled by his party label in other states with large Latino populations.

The Republicans have similarly gone out of their way to alienate gay and lesbian voters, and incidents like Bush's primary-campaign speech at Bob Jones University haven't helped their standing among African-Americans. And the party's philosophy on crime -- build more prisons and arm more citizens -- seems specifically designed to alienate urban voters. I don't think many Republican political strategists during the last Bush administration foresaw the sharp drop in urban crime rates and the renewed interest in city living. They probably didn't think there'd be anyone left in the Bronx by now.

Unfortunately for George W., there are indeed enough voters left in the Bronx to help make it impossible for him to win New York. Similarly, the Castro section of San Francisco and the Watts section of Los Angeles have helped doom Republican chances in California, which now carries more electoral votes than any state in American history.

This year's campaign coverage, as usual, is concentrated on "swing" voters in "battleground" states. But if Gore wins, he should save some credit for the urban voters who gave him a head start.

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Michelle Chihara can be reached at letters[a]phx.com.