Unintended consequences

(continued)

by Dorie Clark

The influx of big money may have altered the initiative process, but it hasn't drained the passion from the citizen activists who see ballot questions as an end run around centrist legislators. "The referendum has been an enormous amount of work," says Darlene Grover of the assisted-suicide measure, "but I think this is the way we have to go, because the people of Maine want it and this is the only way we can get it passed."

Of course, conservatives are just as likely as progressives to use the ballot-initiative process to achieve their aims. Lon Mabon, the chairman and founder of the Oregon Citizens Alliance, a conservative Christian group sponsoring its fourth statewide anti-gay initiative in 12 years, doesn't sound much different from Grover when he says: "The average citizen could be locked out of [the legislative] system very easily because he by himself doesn't have the influence to make a legislator accountable. . . . If you have an initiative process, then he has a vehicle -- it's hard work, but at least it's available to him. He can get 50 or 100 people excited about what he's doing and can get it on the ballot."

Regardless of who's sponsoring an initiative, one thing is clear: they help turn out the vote. Which may, in fact, be part of the plan. Some initiatives are genuinely citizen-led, but Ernst of the Center for Governmental Studies says, "What we're seeing [with some ballot measures] is political parties trying to spur turnout for their candidates. You see the Republican or Democratic Parties putting measures on the ballot to increase turnout for their party. For instance, putting an increase in the minimum wage on the ballot is likely to increase Democratic turnout. For the Republicans, it would be something like limiting affirmative action."

The irony, of course, is that the very candidates who shrink from controversial social issues are benefiting from the turnout generated by voters eager to break gridlock through the initiative process.

Increased voter turnout may prove to be the ultimate good that comes from ballot measures. Dane Waters, president of the Initiative & Referendum Institute in Washington, DC, notes that turnout is higher in states with reform initiatives on the ballot. "We all talk about low voter turnout and voter apathy," he says. "People believe their vote doesn't make a difference, but with ballot measures they know that it does, because the result will be tangible the day after the election."

But while the prospect of amping up citizen participation is exciting, some of us may end up unimpressed with our fellow Americans. If our credit-card culture extends to policy decisions, we in Massachusetts will slice nearly 10 percent from the state budget by approving Measures 4 and 6 alone. The $2 billion revenue loss would, according to Representative Marzilli, "cut to the core of the state's ability to provide services." As Democratic political consultant Michael Goldman says: "You have an interesting dichotomy. On one hand, the public seems to understand [voting for 4 and 6] is a stupid thing, but the idea of the nickel or the dime they'll get back is so irresistible they can't not do it."

Simultaneously, polls show widespread support for Question 5, the universal-health-care measure. Michael Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, says that if the measure passes, "the only debate is whether it'll have a major impact or a horrific impact."

The bottom line is that voters, who are not trained in financial minutiae and may be encountering these ballot questions for the first time when they get to the voting booth, will be making multibillion-dollar decisions that will affect the Commonwealth far into the future. Waters of the Initiative and Referendum Institute argues that voters do often exercise caution on measures they are unsure of (only 37 percent of initiatives typically pass). But, he concedes, "Voters in general vote for tax cuts as long as they feel it won't hurt education. People are seeing surpluses now, and they want some of that [money] back."

Here in the Bay State, a good chunk of the much-vaunted budget surplus has already been dedicated to the $1.4 billion cost overruns generated by the Big Dig. Meanwhile, as Jim St. George points out, Massachusetts has the fourth-highest debt level of any state. Even so, just one month before Christmas, we may vote ourselves a present that will cost us for years to come.

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Dorie Clark can be reached at dclark[a]phx.com.