President Kerry?

The Boston Phoenix
August 14 - 21, 1997

President Kerry?

Gore looks unbeatable, and Gephardt attracts attention as the veep's most outspoken opponent. How could John Kerry ever hope to win the Democratic nomination in 2000? Here's how.

by Dan Kennedy
US Senator John Kerry was wrapping up the latest of his semi-regular appearances on Imus in the Morning. For 20 minutes or so he'd absorbed the I-man's barbs with good humor. He talked about the advice he'd given Bill Weld on his battle for confirmation as ambassador to Mexico, and didn't object strenuously when Imus paraphrased said counsel as "Shut up." He flogged his just-published book, The New War. He even launched into an impressively nuanced monologue on the internal politics of the Israeli cabinet.
Now it was time for the magic moment, when the guest is feeling loose and stumbles into one of Imus's deceptively benign-sounding traps. "What would be interesting in 2000 -- if Teresa lets you -- why, it could be you and Governor Weld going at each other again, couldn't it?" Imus purred.
"Absolutely," Kerry replied, not missing a beat. "But obviously I'd have to check with her first."
For a potential presidential candidate who would be the longest of long shots, it was the perfect answer. Don't confirm it. Don't deny it. And for God's sake, don't make it sound as if you stay awake nights thinking about it.
The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Al Gore's got the Democratic nomination all but wrapped up, and that his only likely opponent is Dick Gephardt, who'll appeal to organized labor and other traditional Democratic constituencies.
"My sense of it is that Gore completely occupies the center and Gephardt completely occupies the left," says political consultant Dick Morris, who masterminded Bill Clinton's comeback after the disastrous midterm elections of 1994. "I personally think that Gephardt is God's gift to Gore, because he keeps everybody else out, and he can't possibly win."
Not that others aren't thinking of trying. Among other potential candidates, the one most frequently mentioned is Minnesota senator Paul Wellstone, a liberal's liberal who'd play well with the party's granola-reformist wing. Maybe Bill Bradley or Jesse Jackson or the other Kerr(e)y, Bob, might jump in too.
But John Kerry? He didn't even show up in a recent presidential-contender poll taken by the highly regarded Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
Still, Kerry's surprisingly strong re-election victory over Weld last year has put him back on the national radar -- for the first time, really, since 1971, when, as the head of Vietnam Veterans Against the War, he testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and solemnly asked, "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"
If getting mentioned by the Great Mentioners is a sign, then Kerry's a 2000 contender already. Time magazine was predicting a Kerry-Weld rematch at the presidential level practically before the polls closed last November. U.S. News & World Report buzzed knowingly in February when Kerry and his wife, Teresa Heinz, were spotted hanging out with New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen at the Democratic Governors Association dinner in Washington. In June, New York Times columnist William Safire described Kerry as the Democrats' only realistic alternative to Gore and Gephardt.
"John really helped himself when he beat Weld," says a nationally known Democratic strategist who asked not to be identified. "He has increased his respect among political professionals around the country. Several people have said to me, `Jesus, I didn't know John was that tough.' "
Officially, the Kerry camp wants nothing to do with any talk about 2000. For Kerry, last year's campaign was a near-death experience: his poor staff work, fuzzy ideology, and seeming inattention to local issues nearly cost him his Senate seat. Despite his large final margin of victory over Weld (52 to 45 percent), the two men ran in a virtual tie for most of 1996.

Thus it's not surprising that Michael Meehan, Kerry's communications director, flatly refused a request for an interview with Kerry to talk about the 2000 presidential race. "He hasn't ruled anything out, but he hasn't ruled anything in, either. The speculation is very flattering," says Meehan. In a recent appearance on New England Cable News's NewsNight, Kerry struck exactly the same balance, calling his thinking about 2000 "totally preliminary" and adding, "As I've said before, I've ruled nothing out, but I've definitely ruled nothing in." Cool, correct, noncommittal.

Yet insiders insist that Kerry and his staff are giving a White House run considerable attention these days. And despite the odds against him, Kerry would bring enormous strengths to a presidential campaign. He's intelligent and hardworking, and has won the respect of colleagues on both sides of the aisle, including US Senator John McCain (R-Arizona), who worked with Kerry on the MIA issue and on normalizing relations with Vietnam. "I certainly think he would be a viable candidate. I think the country is more than ready for a man who stands on principle," says McCain, who's been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate himself.

Although the Boston Globe revealed last fall that Kerry accepted cheap housing from political supporters after his divorce 10 years ago, his basic integrity has never been seriously questioned. He's a stalwart on campaign-finance reform. He's a war hero, which gives him lots of cover for his generally dovish views on foreign policy. As a liberal whose voting record is nearly identical to Ted Kennedy's, he would appeal to fellow liberals put off by the Republican Lite policies of the Clinton-Gore Administration. But as a pragmatist who supports the budget/tax-cut deal, and who voted for welfare reform and free trade, Kerry can lay claim to being more mainstream and thus more electable than Gephardt is.

Then there's the driving ambition that led the young Kerry to lug a movie camera around Vietnam and that, to his supporters, has always imbued his initials, "JFK" (for John Forbes Kerry), with considerable symbolic significance.

"I think that from the day he was born till the day he dies, he'll believe he should be president," says a sometime Kerry adviser. "He feels almost entitled to run."

Strange trip

Here's how Kerry might be able to sneak his way into the 2000 Democratic presidential nomination

Al Gore's enormous head start and Dick Gephardt's strong challenge from the left could make it difficult for John Kerry to stage a credible showing in the 2000 presidential campaign. That would change, though, in the event of two not-particularly-outlandish scenarios. One: continuing revelations about Gore's role in the Clinton fundraising scandals could damage Gore's popularity and his ability to raise money. Two: Jesse Jackson could get into the race, hurting Gore among black voters (the key to winning the South) and, to a lesser extent, hurting Gephardt among Northern liberals. Either development would help; both together would help a lot. Here's how Kerry would fit in.

Gephardt, from neighboring Missouri, easily beats Gore in the Iowa caucuses, damaging Gore's aura of inevitability. Kerry's task: to finish third and establish himself as the only serious alternative to Gore and Gephardt. Could be difficult if Minnesota's Wellstone enters the race.

Kerry takes advantage of regional appeal and easily wins New Hampshire primary. Neither as helpful nor as simple as it sounds: importance of Kerry win would be discounted by pundits, and Gore and Gephardt already have a big head start.

Jackson wins Southern states with huge black constituencies, denying Gore momentum from his home region.

Mainstream liberals gravitate to Kerry in heartland of Democratic Party, the Northeast and Midwest. Why? They never liked Gore because of his moderate-to-conservative leanings, and Gephardt's class-warfare rhetoric looks like a sure loser in November.

Gore is strong in California, which Clinton-Gore Administration has made a virtual appendage of White House. But Kerry matches Gore in baby-boomer generational appeal, and could finish a strong second -- or higher.

-- DK

Part 2 - Consider the possibilities
Dan Kennedy can be reached at dkennedy[a]phx.com.