President Kerry?

Part 3 - Fire when ready

by Dan Kennedy

John Kerry was bristling with righteous anger. It was the second-to-last Sunday of the 1996 Senate campaign. In that morning's Globe, columnist David Warsh, on the basis of one suggestive interview and an ambiguous phrase in Kerry's Silver Star citation, wrote that Kerry might have killed an unarmed, wounded Viet Cong soldier in 1969 -- and that such an act would have constituted a "war crime."

"This is about my honor, it's about the honor of my crew, it's about the honor of those of us who served," Kerry sternly told the assembled media at a hastily arranged news conference at the Charlestown Navy Yard.

Retired admiral Elmo Zumwalt Jr. was there to lend his support. So were former Navy superiors and crew members. Also on hand was Tom Belodeau, the crew member whom Warsh had interviewed, and who vigorously disputed Warsh's interpretation. "This man was not lying on the ground," Belodeau said of the Viet Cong soldier. "He was more than capable of destroying that boat and everybody on it. Senator Kerry did not give him that opportunity. For that reason, myself and three other people are here today."

For Kerry, the news conference was more than just an opportunity for him to vent his moral indignation over a severe wrong done to him by the media. It was a bravura political performance, and it may have meant the difference between a squeaker and the big victory he ultimately won. Bill Weld -- regularly hailed by pundits as some sort of instinctive political genius -- never knew what hit him.

Which suggests that Kerry's shortcomings as a politician, endlessly dissected last year, may not be as serious as the skeptics would believe. Yes, he's stiff and formal, but so are Gore and Gephardt. So was Michael Dukakis, and he did fine until he jumped in the tank and donned the helmet. Yes, Kerry's an elitist who can be difficult to warm up to (at a rally in Revere last fall, State Senate president Tom Birmingham tried to rally the troops for Kerry by pleading, "This is not a contest of who's the most charming or the most cuddly"), but after eight years of the pathologically empathetic Clinton, voters might be looking for someone a bit more removed.

Perhaps Kerry's biggest disadvantages are geography and history. "Republicans would love to have another liberal from Massachusetts. It would be their dream come true. And Democrats know that," says University of Virginia government professor Larry Sabato. Moreover, William Mayer, a Northeastern University historian and the editor of In Pursuit of the White House: How We Choose Our Presidential Nominees (Chatham House, 1996), warns that the days of insurgents such as George McGovern and Jimmy Carter knocking off highly favored front-runners are long gone. Starting with the 1980 election, he notes, only one early front-runner has failed to win his party's nomination. That was Gary Hart, whose 1988 campaign was sunk on the good ship Monkey Business.

But if Kerry does harbor presidential ambitions, there's no reason not to take the plunge in 2000. Successful candidates often need to try two or more times before they finally win their party's nomination. Look at Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and Bob Dole. Kerry, who's still just 53, may not be ready for prime time in 2000, but a test run could help prepare him for 2004 or 2008. If nothing else, says a Kerry adviser, a well-run presidential campaign "can enhance his national stature."

Ultimately, the question is this: how bad does Kerry want it? There's no doubt that he wanted it very bad when he was younger. But in recent years, as that dream came to seem unlikely, he has buried himself in the mostly unglamorous, day-to-day work of the Senate. Now, suddenly, unexpectedly, he has a chance to give the presidency another look.

Janis Pryor, a former Kerry aide who now works as a consultant to the Ten Point Coalition, among other organizations, has no doubt that Kerry is considering a run. But she thinks it will be a while before he makes up his mind.

"Every politician, particularly if they make it to Capitol Hill, gets struck by that fever. The real question, as Shirley Chisholm once put it, is whether he has the fire in the belly," she says.

Does John Kerry have that fire in his belly?

"Not yet," Pryor replies, laughing. "Ask me in six months."

Dan Kennedy can be reached at dkennedy[a]phx.com.