Decision time

Part 2

by Michael Crowley

Like it or not, thanks largely to the early momentum of a media-saturated governor's race, the '98 campaign season has arrived. That became an indisputable fact this month, when Joe Kennedy opened a state campaign account -- a move that's considered an unofficial declaration of his candidacy for governor.

"This is the time that everyone has to make their decisions," says Democratic consultant Mary Anne Marsh, who expects to remain neutral in the race. "If you haven't made your decision by Labor Day, you're behind the curve." (And in the Eighth District, where GOP opposition is a quaint formality, the vote that counts isn't in November -- the September 1998 primary is the election.)

So the moment is at hand. And yet, puffing a Newport Light on his Senate office balcony one recent August morning, Birmingham is still a man in limbo.

What if Joe Kennedy officially announces for governor tomorrow?

"Then I'd quickly have to make a decision," Birmingham non-answers.

Massachusetts's Eighth District seat has a distinguished lineage. It was the ticket to Washington for John F. Kennedy, and later for former House Speaker Tip O'Neill. From 1943 to 1945, it was even occupied, for a term, by the infamous James Michael Curley. In 1997, its geography is especially promising for Tom Birmingham: encompassing Somerville, Watertown, Belmont, and half of Boston, the district contains most of his Senate district and his hometown of Chelsea.

Birmingham is tempted by a fleeting window of opportunity: the seat hasn't been vacant since Kennedy claimed it after O'Neill's 1986 retirement, and probably won't be again for years to come -- since the power of incumbency, for Democrats at least, appears undiminished in Massachusetts. As Birmingham puts it, an open seat "is a brass ring that comes around as often as Halley's comet." And having rocketed to the top of the Senate in just six years on Beacon Hill, Birmingham no doubt feels he has political momentum on his side, momentum toward grander political glory.

"It's a national stage," Birmingham says, "a bigger stage dealing with national and international issues."

In other words, no more State House tedium. Instead of sewage treatment in Revere, nuclear-arms control. Instead of haggling over state licensing of optometrists, sermons on the morality of affirmative action.

And yet. Birmingham notes that Democrats could languish as the minority in Congress for years. The institution is publicly reviled. Birmingham has two young daughters, and a wife who refuses to move to DC. And -- although Birmingham doesn't bring it up -- Congress would mean a sizable pay cut. (Birmingham earns $81,000 as Senate president, but he is allowed to maintain an outside practice as a labor lawyer to the tune of more than $100,000 annually. Congress pays $133,000, with no outside income allowed. Net loss: at least $52,000.)

Above all, does Birmingham want to give up perhaps the second-most powerful job in state politics in hopes of adding a few amendments to GOP bills here and there? "Were I to run for Congress," Birmingham says, "at the very best, it would be a lateral move -- perhaps not even a lateral move -- in terms of my ability to influence public policy."

And what if he loses? Yes, he could return full-time to his law practice. But at 48, Birmingham would surely feel the sting of unfulfilled ambition and yearn to rejoin the fray. That wouldn't be easy, however; few things taint a pol's stock more than entering a race as a favorite and blowing it.

Meanwhile, out of Birmingham's continued indecision has grown fanciful speculation. A rumor recently landed in the Boston Globe that Birmingham might be interested in replacing Attorney General Scott Harshbarger, a '98 gubernatorial hopeful. That would allow Birmingham to use the $400,000 he has in a state campaign account -- which can't be applied to a congressional race -- to steamroll into the AG's job, and avoid a family-straining move to Washington.

"Pure fiction," Birmingham says of the report. "I hadn't even thought of it. I think my current job is more varied and interesting than that."

Part 3

Michael Crowley can be reached at mcrowley[a]phx.com.