“Christy was very brave on the Big Dig, and almost always right, and he was grotesquely maligned for it,” adds another political observer who asked to remain anonymous. “The role he played on the Big Dig was one of the great, courageous, Jimmy Stewart–type roles we’ve seen. Having said that, in many ways, Christy is lighter than ashes . . . He’ll get everybody who supported Jim Rappaport [Healey’s opponent in the 2002 Republican LG primary], which is probably one or two percent of the vote in a statewide election, so my guess is he hurts Healey slightly. But to be honest, he could quickly become a footnote.”
Fair enough. But here’s the catch: Mihos’s TV ads — which were slated to debut on Wednesday, September 20, the day after the Democratic primary — could dramatically increase his support between now and the next big poll. The spots were done by ad guru Bill Hillsman, who helped independent Jesse Ventura get elected governor of Minnesota and has been working with lefty darling Ned Lamont in Connecticut’s US Senate race. They’re not as novel as some of Hillsman’s other work (no, there won’t be a Mihos action figure), but they’re still strong: in the ads, Mihos talks up Proposition One, his plan to send 40 percent of state-tax revenue back to cities and towns. (The current number is just shy of 30 percent.) Along the way, the candidate pops up at various communities in Massachusetts, hollering excitedly about how much money they’d get if Proposition One became reality and glad-handing with voters.
At the end — still hollering excitedly — Mihos stands in front of the State House and sums up his basic premise: “You and your neighbors know how to spend your hard-earned tax dollars better than Beacon Hill!” The political potential of Proposition One lies in the fact that it gives anti-tax, anti–Beacon Hill sentiment a communitarian twist. By pounding the point home — and depicting the candidate as energetic and just a bit offbeat — the ads could make voters who are just tuning in to the governor’s race sit up and take notice.
Uphill battle
Still, the Massachusetts political landscape may simply not be hospitable to what he’s trying to do. “An independent campaign has potential when the candidate has a lot of money, which Mihos does, but also when there’s widespread dissatisfaction with the whole kit and caboodle of government,” argues Tufts political-science professor Jeffrey Berry. “I don’t really think that’s the case here in Massachusetts. Republicans are pretty comfortable with Kerry Healey, and Democrats are pretty comfortable, by and large, with Deval Patrick. So I don’t see the ground being that fertile for a major third-party candidate at this point in time.”
Still, even if Mihos’s final vote total is as small as many people expect, he could have a major impact on the race. In 2002, Mitt Romney beat Shannon O’Brien by five percentage points. If this year’s race is similarly close, the outcome could hinge on where, exactly, Mihos gets his votes. Healey supporters argue that recent polls suggest Mihos will get Democratic as well as Republican votes. But given Mihos’s fixation on taxes — and his evident determination to bash Kerry Healey — it’s likely that, come November, he’ll damage Healey most. Right now, it’s all but impossible to imagine a scenario in which Mihos actually wins the election. But his bid may well decide who will be the next governor of Massachusetts.
On the Web
Adam Reilly's Talking Politics: http://www.thephoenix.com/talkingpolitics
Christy Mihos: http://www.christy2006.com/
