And if he wins, does he have what it takes to move up the ladder in 2014?
AMBITIONS
A year or two ago, it was not at all clear that Cicilline would run for a third tour in City Hall. With Governor Carcieri barred from seeking re-election by term limits, the mayor was seriously considering a gubernatorial run. And observers placed him in the top tier of potential candidates: Cicilline, if no longer at the peak of his powers, still had a strong fundraising operation and broad name recognition.
But in the spring, he announced he was passing on the race in favor of re-election, declaring that there was unfinished business in the city. "It was actually not a difficult decision," he said, in a recent interview in his office, arguing that he wanted to see the city through the recession.
Whatever his motivation, observers and allies say the mayor probably made the right call. The Democratic gubernatorial field was filling up with high-profile candidates. And even in a less competitive field, making the transition from big-city mayor to statewide official can be tricky.
"If you are going to be a successful mayor of Providence, you have to be very Providence-centric, which means there are dozens of other municipalities that think you don't care about them," said Jennifer Lawless, a former Brown University political science professor who is now at American University.
Bob Walsh, executive director of the National Education Association Rhode Island and a member of Cicilline's 2002 transition team, said independents — one of four key constituencies in a Democratic primary — are particularly suspicious of big-city mayors.
And Cicilline didn't have a clear path to any of the other three constituencies either, he notes. Progressives were sizing up Attorney General Patrick C. Lynch, who remains in the race, and Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts, who has since dropped out.
Organized labor, meanwhile, had some qualms about his long-running fight with the firefighters. And the party regulars had several strong options, including Treasurer Frank T. Caprio.
Allies say Cicilline — a former state legislator who floated his name for Congress as early as 1999 — may be more interested in Washington than Smith Hill, anyhow. And better suited, they add, to the politics of a legislative role than the mechanics of an executive one.
Indeed, one of the critiques of Cicilline as mayor is that detail work is not his forte. "The job of mayor is two jobs, the visionary leader — the mayor job — and the city manager — the administrative job," said Walsh. "He was well-positioned to be mayor of Providence. The learning curve for city manager was steeper."
Of course, it's far from clear that there will be any openings in Washington come 2014. If Representatives James Langevin and Patrick Kennedy can overcome the current wave of anti-incumbent feeling, which most observers expect they will, there is every reason to believe they will be in a strong position to win re-election down the line.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, meanwhile, does not seem to be going anywhere. And Senator Jack Reed has played down persistent rumors that he will leave his post to serve as Secretary of Defense in the Obama administration.
HERE AND NOW
