TUESDAY, JANUARY 15, 2002 — As I listened to Senator John Kerry on Imus in the Morning while driving to work today, the thought suddenly occurred to me that Kerry is much better positioned to win the Democratic nomination for president than most people realize.

That thought filled me with some trepidation. Because even though Kerry would be a solid choice as a progressive alternative to President Bush, his electability is in serious doubt.

On the plus side, Kerry would appear to be exactly what the Democrats need in a time of crisis. He’s a liberal on domestic issues, and an outspoken opponent of Bush’s huge tax breaks for the wealthy. But, unlike Bill Clinton or Al Gore (not to mention George W. Bush himself), he’s a genuine war hero. What’s more, he can lay claim to being an expert on terrorism, since his 1997 book, presciently titled The New War, was about precisely that topic.

On the minus side, Kerry isn’t just a liberal, he’s a Massachusetts liberal, and a member of the Senate as well. Senators have a tough time running for president. The last one who actually captured the White House was, well, a Massachusetts liberal, John F. Kennedy, who really wasn’t all that liberal, and who in fact scored points by tacking to Richard Nixon’s right on foreign policy. The last Massachusetts liberal to win the Democratic nomination was, of course, Michael Dukakis, who was swamped by Bush’s father in 1988.

What most people don’t realize is that Kerry may have almost a clean shot at the nomination. The Democratic Party’s decision to pick its candidate in one or two huge semi-national primaries in the winter of 2004 means that the eventual winner will be someone who is already well-known and well-funded — and Kerry fits that profile.

Moreover, I can think of reasons why Senators Tom Daschle, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton — as well as Al Gore — might not run in 2004. But I can’t think of anything to stay Kerry’s hand. He’s going to win a huge re-election victory this year, possibly without so much as a Republican opponent. And, at 57, he won’t have too many more opportunities to seek the presidency.

On Imus this morning, Kerry — calling in from Cairo, where he was visiting US Marines — showed both his formidable and his vulnerable sides. Simply put, the man knows his stuff, and he knows how to explain it in a clear, compelling way. But he is and always has been something of a stiff. And when he tries to be funny, he has a tin ear, which can lead him into rhetorical danger.

Today, for instance, he made a crack about the possibility that he’ll be searched for pretzels when he flies back to the United States. A little tasteless, but not too bad. Except that it conjured up memories of the time some years back when he made a grotesque joke about the Secret Service’s having orders to "shoot Quayle" should anything happen to the first President Bush. Kerry would be well advised to stick to jokes that have been thoroughly vetted and written out for him on three-by-five index cards.

It could well be that the White House just isn’t there for the Democrats in 2004. George W. Bush is handling the war against terrorism about as well as anyone could hope, and the country has justifiably rallied around him. The Enron scandal, to the extent that it really is a scandal, appears bipartisan enough to ensure its quick disappearance. Bush’s policies on taxes, the environment, and energy (just to name a few) are brutal, but if the economy is recovering by the time he’s up for re-election (maybe election would be a better term, given what happened in Florida), nothing else may matter.

But if Bush can be beaten, Kerry may well find himself in the best position of any Democrat to do it. History, as well as Kerry’s own shortcomings, suggest that it will not be an easy task.