FRIDAY, MARCH 15, 2002 — Up in Dunbarton, New Hampshire, there exists a very odd little school called LFI, or the Lethal Force Institute. The institute, run by an ex–police officer named Massad Ayoob, offers courses with names like "Combat Handgun" and "The Judicious Use of Deadly Force." These might sound like primers in Death Wish–like vigilantism, but as Ayoob stresses time and time again, his primary aim is to teach his students how not to shoot someone.

LFI’s firearm philosophy revolves around a central paradox: the more prepared you are to use a gun, the less likely you are to have to. The point, Ayoob says, is deterrence. If someone comes creeping up the stairs in the middle of the night, you confront that person, gun held firmly in both hands, and bark, "If you move, I will shoot you!"

This is pretty much what the US was doing this week when it allowed the Los Angeles Times to leak its classified report on contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against seven countries — China, Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya, Syria — deemed a threat to US national security. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was said to be furious about the so-called leak. Hogwash. Clearly, the Bush people wanted this report circulated — it’s all part of the administration’s "speak extremely loudly and wave that big stick all over the place" approach to foreign policy.

In a press conference on Wednesday, the president himself virtually admitted as much. "We’ve got all options on the table," Bush said, "because we want to make it very clear to nations that you will not threaten the United States or use weapons of mass destruction against us or our allies or our friends."

In other words: "If you move, I will shoot you."

Not surprisingly, word of the Pentagon’s report caused an uproar in the seven countries named in its pages. It also caused something of a stir here at home. "They’re trying to find new uses for nuclear weapons," lamented John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World, "when their uses should be limited to deterrence." But Isaacs seems to have missed the point here. Surely, threatening to use these weapons is the very essence of nuclear deterrence.

In his deadly-force class, Massad Ayoob stresses that aiming a gun at someone does not come without risks. Threatening the use of deadly force in a confrontation will, of course, up the stakes considerably. If the person at whom you are aiming your gun is also armed, for instance, he may choose to shoot you before you have a chance to shoot him. This was the threat that gnawed at the stomachs of Kennedy-administration officials during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, considering the person at whom Bush has leveled his gun this time around, this is the threat that should give us pause today.

"I am deeply concerned about Iraq," the president remarked at Wednesday’s press conference. "[Saddam Hussein] is a problem, and we’re going to deal with him." You don’t need to be a cryptologist to read the hidden message here. For months now, the US has been gearing up to launch an attack on Iraq. If and when this attack takes place, Hussein is expected to launch Scud missiles into Israel, possibly tipped with devastating chemical or biological agents. The recently leaked report is the Bush administration’s way of saying, to use the president’s words, "Don’t do it."

This is where things get scary. As he has proven time and again, Saddam Hussein is not a foe to be taken lightly. He is brutal, devious, and, most alarming, unpredictable. When faced with forces that threaten his very existence, there’s no telling what the man may do. If Hussein does unleash weapons of mass destruction on Israel, the US will be faced with a crushing dilemma.

"Don’t do it," said the president. The problem with throwing warnings like this about is that they are often met with an "Or what?"

Another point that Ayoob stresses in his LFI courses is that if you pull a gun on someone, you must be prepared to use it. More important, it must be crystal clear to your adversary that you are prepared to use it. This principle lies at the heart of Ayoob’s theory of deterrence. But deterrence doesn’t always work. Sometimes the man on the stairs will move, and then there’s only one thing left to do: shoot the bastard.

If the US does pull the trigger in Iraq, all hell could break loose. Because if Saddam Hussein is the thug creeping up the stairs in the middle of the night, then China and North Korea are lurking right behind him, and they are armed to the teeth. Bang, bang, you’re dead.