TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2002 -- Two new polls show Treasurer Shannon O’Brien with a slight lead over Republican Mitt Romney. In a New England Cable News/Harvard Institute of Politics poll, O’Brien edges Romney 41 percent to 39 percent, which is a statistical dead-heat. In a Boston Herald poll, the difference was six points in O’Brien’s favor. The evidence seems to suggest that O’Brien has righted the ship from her bad two weeks, where questions about her husband Emmet Hayes, a former lobbyist, seemed poised to envelope the race, and she got off message from the economy with a late-detour onto social issues.

Evidently, somebody else thought O’Brien was off-message as well. Frank Philips of the Boston Globe reports today that the O’Brien campaign has imported some important Democratic muscle for the final days of the campaign. Among those now helping O’Brien are Democratic strategist Robert Shrum, communications specialist John Marttila, and former Gore operative Michael Whouley. The news caps five days of rumors and speculation surrounding O’Brien’s campaign team. As I pointed out last week, it was astounding -- but admirable -- that O’Brien decided to put the emphasis on gay marriage with such little time to go. Generally, candidates move toward the center in the final weeks of the campaign. Even more unusual is that O’Brien made her decision to emphasize gay rights without any polling data at all.

While her position was completely laudable, the episode demonstrated something problematic about the campaign. Nobody was thinking strategically. Whether it was the gay issue, the decision to use O’Brien herself to attack Romney (instead of a surrogate as most campaigns use), the back-and-forth exchange of charges and counter-charges, everything the O’Brien campaign was doing was reactive. It resembled the bloodsport that politics is on Beacon Hill rather than a gubernatorial campaign that’s attracted national attention.

Now with the addition of Shrum, everybody should be able to guess what the "theme" of the O’Brien campaign will be: "the people versus the powerful," which has been Shrum’s message for two decades now. But it’s a message that might help energize the base as well as those independent voters who already look suspiciously upon Romney because of his wealth and role as an investor in downsizing companies. That said, it’s a risky play in such a close race. If there are enough independents whom are put off by Shrum’s populism -- enough to overcome the Democrats’ natural "Get Out The Vote" advantage -- the new strategy could deliver the race to Romney.

NOTE: Tonight’s WHDH-Suffolk University debate won’t be the only televised debate this week. Last night, Boston Neighborhood Network, Boston’s community cable channel televised the Black Ministerial Alliance’s dialogue with all five candidates. Let me just say it was an absolute treat. Viewers were greeted with the full-Johnson -- Independent candidate Barbara Johnson reminiscing on her experiences double-dating with an interracial couple and her statement that the promises of the other candidates to African-Americans were all "b.s." Green candidate Jill Stein again showed energy and skill -- receiving hearty applause and cheers, and Mitt Romney -- as he did when he met with Rev. Gene Rivers -- appeared more comfortable than he normally does in public settings. Ultimately, however, most of the activists in the audience will probably go with the safe bet, O’Brien, who performed competently though she was somewhat subdued.