The inherent problem with writing a Friday sports column is the danger in speculating about what might happen during events that take place over the course of that weekend. If my predictions are wrong, then I’m publicly hung out to dry until I can scramble back in and put together the Monday column. That being said, I’m willing to take a shot and take a look at this weekend’s semifinals and finals of the Olympic Men’s Hockey Tournament, and put my hunches on the line and take my lumps if I am proven wrong.

First, a side note. Don’t you think Nike could have made their swoosh logos just a little more discreet on the uniforms of the participating teams in the men’s and women’s hockey tourney? I assume that the Oregon-based sportswear company paid mucho dinero to get the hockey players to don their apparel, but I think a swoosh on the " lapel " and maybe on the shoulders would have been fine, but the huge logo on the back of every uniform, above the player’s name, is distracting and inappropriate.

Okay, back to our program. The semifinals of the men’s draw take place on Friday afternoon and evening. I guess we on the East Coast shouldn’t complain that the start times — 2 p.m. and 6:15 EST — are marginally inconvenient for those with 9-to-6 jobs, since the US team could have gotten stuck with the early game, leading to " late and lengthy " lunches for anyone interested in the USA-Russia tilt. Still, most people are on their way home around 6:15, so the happy-hour business at local taverns will no doubt be flourishing by the time they drop the puck on Friday evening.

Belarus and Canada play in the early game, and Team Sweden must still be asking itself about the " Helluva ruse " that prevented them from reaching the semifinals. Belarus, an offshoot of the old USSR evil empire, had lost its three prior games by a combined score of 22-6 before stunning the favored Swedes in the quarterfinals Wednesday. The Bels of the ball should revert to form on Friday and exit the tourney at the hands of the thus-far-underachieving Canadians. Team Canada, an NHL all-star team that includes superstars Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman, Eric Lindros, Chris Pronger, and goalie Martin Brodeur, has thus far impressed no one, having lost to Sweden, tying the Czechs, and narrowly beating uneven Finland and struggling Germany. Team Maple Leaf is due to break out, though, and will probably take out their frustrations on the Belarusskies to clinch a berth in Sunday’s gold-medal game.

The late game is intriguing for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the 22nd anniversary of the American’s Miracle on Ice victory over the USSR on February 22, 1980. The US and the Russians have already played each other in the earlier round, with the teams skating to a 2-2 draw last Saturday night/Sunday. (By the way: game to be played on 2/22/02, on the 22nd anniversary, after a 2-2 tie last week. Can’t make this stuff up. Bodes well for US defenseman Brian Leetch, who wears jersey #2.)

Who has the upper hand this time? A number of factors favor the Americans:

a.) They haven’t really been tested yet, with the aforementioned tie being the only close game they have played in the tournament, so they should still have a reservoir of motivation for the remaining two games. Team Russia struggled to get by Belarus in its first game, tied the US, lost to the Finns, and then held off the Czechs, 1-0 in a nailbiter quarterfinal game. It is difficult to maintain a top level of play after so many of its games have been do-or-die.

b.) Because of the US’s relative cakewalk, the Yanks have been able to give each of their three US goaltenders a chance to play, so they’re all well-rested. That has not been the case for their opponents, who have relied on Nikolai Khabibulin for every tournament game, and the young Tampa Bay Lightning goalie has already had to carry the NHL team’s load all season long as the team has become one of the surprise teams of the league. Despite a sterling 1-0 shutout over the Czechs on Wednesday, he too is due for a letdown, and this should play into the Americans’ hands.

c.) The home-ice advantage cannot be understated, and head coach Herb Brooks, architect of The Miracle 22 years ago, has molded this team into a very cohesive unit that believes, just as Team Eruzione of a generation ago did, that it can win this thing. Old-time hockey.

Okay, let’s say things play out as I’ve outlined. Canada versus the US for the gold medal on Sunday afternoon. For these stakes, prior records should be thrown out, but I won’t. Let’s look at common opponents. Germany: Canada wins 3-2, US wins 5-0. Finland: Canada wins 2-1, US wins 6-0. Yzerman of Team Canada said early in the tournament that " The US is the home team, the pressure is on them. " I think not. Canada — already a team in turmoil with its executive director, Wayne Gretzky, spouting conspiracy theories as a tactic to motivate his team — has not won a gold medal in hockey in 50 years, and the sport is a national passion north of the border. If they lose this game, there will be no end to the heartbreak and finger pointing. The US does not have that kind of negative aura surrounding it, and since they came into the Games hopeful of, but not expecting a medal, even a bronze would be acceptable, and Team USA has no reason to believe that it will be vilified if they lose Sunday’s game.

History says the US wins gold this weekend. The Americans are 20-0-3 in their last 23 games on star-spangled home ice, and the last two US-hosted Winter Games (1960, 1980) saw the locals surprisingly reach the top step of the medals podium. I say it happens again.

It won’t be with the same flag-waving, unbridled joy that greeted the Miracle of ’80, but it’ll be another fitting conclusion to a month that saw another set of Patriots also win our hearts and make us feel good again about being the home team.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at bostonphoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com