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What current major-leaguers will end up in Cooperstown?
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Seeing as how the National Baseball Hall of Fame, located in the village of my birth, Cooperstown, New York, completed its annual induction ceremonies this past Sunday with the welcoming of its lone 2002 player entrant, shortstop extraordinaire Ozzie Smith, I thought it might be a good time to speculate on future members. Therefore, allow us to scan the major-league-baseball rosters to see whose bust may someday adorn the hallowed walls of professional sports’ oldest museum.

Anaheim: the players making up the nondescript Angels roster have nonetheless vaulted into first place in the always-tough AL West, but the only player who would seem to have a chance would be closer Troy Percival, and even he’s a long shot. In six pro seasons, Percival has averaged around 34 saves a year, collecting another 23 this season. The all-time leader in saves, Lee Smith (a possible inductee next year), had 478 over 18 big-league seasons, so Percival has a long way to go.

Arizona: the success of this club revolves around its pitching, so it’s fitting that only pitchers Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling currently warrant serious consideration. Johnson is a lock, having already gone 214-105 in his 15-year career and notched over 3600 strikeouts. The Big Unit will be 39 in September, but the lanky fireballer has still got it. Schilling’s credentials are borderline right now, although he’s been the dominant pitcher in baseball the past two seasons. He has just one 20-win season, but has 2244 career K’s and 150 wins along with a 3.34 career ERA. Though he’s 35, he seems to be blossoming late, and could post great numbers for another five years or so because of his Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens build.

Atlanta: the Braves boast two no-questions-asked Hall of Famers in their line-up right now — pitchers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine — along with three more who are knocking on the door: outfielders Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield, plus starter-turned-reliever John Smoltz. In addition, rising star Andruw Jones also could make it if the 25-year-old continues to build on the big numbers he’s accumulated since he entered the majors at age 19. With that kind of team-wide firepower, it’s not surprising that the Braves are the best team in baseball right now.

Baltimore: sorry, Bird fans, but until Cal Ripken Jr. enters the Hall in 2006, there’s nobody else on your roster within sunflower-seed-spitting distance of Cooperstown. With this team’s rich tradition, this current scenario is astounding and quite sad.

Boston: Pedro is a lock, assuming a few more years of pitching are on the horizon. Nomar and Manny would also seem to be shoo-ins, should their careers continue on their current paths; utility outfielder Rickey Henderson, should he ever retire, will be a first-ballot lock. Other than those gents, the youngsters still have a long way to go to build up the necessary stats.

Chicago Cubs: Sammy Sosa and his 487 career homers would seem to be the Cubs’ only sure-fire shot at the Hall, but 17-year veteran Fred McGriff will also have some impressive credentials for voters to mull over. The 39-year-old "Crime Dog" has 470 home runs and a .287 career average, and he’s always been one of the top-fielding first basemen in the game. That’ll be a tough call. Moises Alou seemed to be on the fast track for Cooperstown, but he’s slumped to .247 this year.

Chicago White Sox: in the ’90s, Frank Thomas batted over .300 every year but one (.265 in 1998). The last two years, though, he has evolved into an injury-plagued, pouting DH that nobody wants around anymore. Small wonder, since he batted .221 last year and is at .244 this season despite a $10 million salary. Unless he gets rejuvenated and puts up another great season or two, his recent behavior will probably cancel out all the impressive numbers he put up in the ’90s, and he’ll be kept out.

Cincinnati: shortstop Barry Larkin is probably a lock despite his current .246 season, but otherwise, only underachieving and oft-injured Ken Griffey Jr. is a realistic candidate for induction down the road.

Cleveland: oh, how the mighty have fallen. The only possibles on this current squad are defensive wizard Omar Vizquel, first baseman Jim Thome, and outfielder Ellis Burks, and they are all right smack on the borderline right now. The upcoming years will determine their respective fates.

Colorado: only outfielder Larry Walker has an outside shot, and even his numbers are somewhat tainted by the fact that he plays at Coors Field, where all offensive stats are affected by the thin air. But you can’t argue with his production over this impressive 14-year career.

Detroit: nobody on this roster even warrants consideration at this stage of his career.

Florida: ditto, although one could make a case for 42-year-old Tim Raines. But it’s a stretch. Time to hang ’em up, old man, and let the kids play.

Houston: this one’ll hurt, Red Sox fans, but the only one who could be considered on the present roster is 34-year-old Jeff Bagwell, who sports a .302 career average and 367 homers. The former Soxer is on track for Cooperstown if his impressive career continues at its current pace.

Kansas City: you’re joshin’ me, right? Other than Mike Sweeney, it’s a team of 24 nobodies plus one Chuck Knoblauch-head. George Brett is the only Royal ever to be inducted into the Hall in the team’s 33-year history, and he may very well be the last if KC’s tightwad ownership continues at this pace. But new manager Tony Pena’s done a nice job turning nothing into something with the hand he’s been dealt.

Los Angeles: some intriguing possibilities here. Superstar-in-the making Shawn Green, overpaid disabled-list resident Kevin Brown, and 45-year-old — yes, I did say 45 — reliever Jesse Orosco are probably the only candidates worth discussing at this point, and all have flaws in their résumés that could hinder their chances for induction.

Milwaukee: take a look at the Brew Crew’s roster. Who in the hell are these guys? Enough said.

Minnesota: same deal here, except this team is winning with its no-name cast of characters. Since nearly everybody’s under 30 and no one’s had a chance to put up big-time career numbers yet, let’s just say that some guys are destined for greatness here, but we just haven’t had the proper introduction yet. Let’s see how they perform on the big stage in October.

Montreal: this team may soon be a distant memory, and in the club’s 33-year big-league history, it has yet to send an Expo (other than part-time resident Tony Perez) to Cooperstown, except to play in the annual exhibition game. Vladimir Guerrero could very well be inducted someday, but it’s unlikely he’ll wear the rouge, blanc, et bleu tricolor hat of Les Expos.

New York Mets: a few interesting candidates worth discussing here. This year appears to be the eighth-straight season for Al Leiter to collect 10 wins or more, but he’s almost 37 and has a career ERA of 3.65. Roberto Alomar and Mike Piazza are almost certainly destined for the Hall of Fame, and probably long-time reliever John Franco, but no one else on the current Mets roster appears worthy, unless you believe Mo Vaughn warrants consideration. I think not.

New York Yankees: okay, here goes. The pinstripers have no shortage of future Hall of Famers, and that should come as no surprise. But let’s give them their due, nonetheless. Going around the diamond, it would seem that Roger Clemens is an absolute, positive lock to join the immortals unless he is found out to be some kind of maniacal betting-on-baseball, porn-distributing, drag-queen, puppy-kicking serial killer (not as far-fetched as it may sound). Mike Mussina looks like he’s also a definite, as is closer Mariano Rivera. David Wells’s 4.05 ERA would seem to preclude him despite 177 career victories. Too early to tell about Andy Pettitte. The same goes for catcher Jorge Posada, but first-bagger Jason Giambi is most likely on the right track for induction, as is blooming superstar Alfonso Soriano (although he’s only a second-year player). Derek Jeter? Barring a years-long slump or injury, no question. Robin Ventura? Probably not, although he’s batted .270 over nearly 1800 games over his 14-year career. Bernie Williams is probably the only Yankee outfielder to be viewed as Hall material at this point in his career, and he’s got the stats to prove it. And don’t forget that manager Joe Torre is an absolute cinch to make it as well. There you have it: six certifiable Hall of Famers plus manager on one team, plus another five or six possibles.

Oakland: lots of good young arms, but we can’t extrapolate on their final statistics this early in their careers. And I would have to vote "no" right now on David Justice, despite his 300 career dingers and .280 average.

Philadelphia: Scott Rolen’s the only possible choice, and not only has he yet to prove himself numbers-wise, but he’s about to be shipped out to another club in trade.

Pittsburgh: I’ll give you a wink of the official Sporting Eye if you can even name one Pirate player other than Pokey Reese.

San Diego: like Anaheim, the Padres’ best shot at post–Tony Gwynn glory in Cooperstown is reliever Trevor Hoffman, who some argue is the best in the business. He has 338 career saves, a 2.76 ERA, and 777 career strikeouts in 681 appearances over his 10-year career. With a more prolific team, he could have received the accolades he deserves, but he’ll ultimately receive them in Cooperstown around 2012.

San Francisco: Barry Bonds. Yup. No doubt. Other than that? Slim pickings, other than perhaps reliever Robb Nen, with his 299 career saves over 10 years. Anyone else on the Giants is strictly speculation.

Seattle: lots of borderliners here, but Ichiro, should he continue his take-no-prisoners pace, could be the first major-leaguer from the Far East to make it to Cooperstown. Edgar Martinez has the numbers and should get in handily, but he’s been a DH for the last nine years, so the label of "complete ballplayer" is up for debate in his case.

St. Louis: manager Tony La Russa is a sure bet despite just one world championship. Aside from him, perhaps outfielder Jim Edmonds or up-and-comer J.D. Drew have the best shot at following Ozzie into the Hall with a Redbirds cap on.

Tampa Bay: you have got to be kidding.

Texas: you’d never think a last-place team like the Rangers could have four potential Hall of Famers, but it does: Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Alex Rodriguez are no-brainers, and Juan Gonzalez has a pretty good shot, too, if he stays healthy, humble, and productive.

Toronto: other than Carlos Delgado, the Blue Jays also don’t have much to offer in the way of up-and-coming superstars. A lot of young guys with potential, yes, but they’re also on a fourth-place club playing in front of a lot of folks disguised as empty seats, so they may remain undiscovered for a while longer.

There you have it. In the upcoming years, we’ll welcome debates regarding eligible players such as Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Fernando Valenzuela, Eddie Murray, Gary Carter, and Andre Dawson as they stand poised to get the call from the Hall.

On the other hand, if the labor dispute gets out of hand in the coming months, the game of baseball itself could be headed on the road to ruin and irrelevancy, and the quaint hamlet of Cooperstown could return to its roots as just another pretty little town on Otsego Lake.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com.

Issue Date: July 29, 2002
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