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Staying level-headed about the Patriots’ return to earth
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

I KNOW, I KNOW. For Patriots fans, Sunday was bad. As Dana Carvey mocking George H.W. Bush would say, "It was baa-aaa-d, baa-aaa-d." Indeed, what a waste of three hours on an autumn Sunday in New England.

Truth be told, the last two weeks have been frustrating. Last week, the Patriots’ run defense couldn’t stop LaDainian Tomlinson from cruising to over 200 yards rushing in a 21-14 Charger win, so the New England brain trust focused on upgrading that aspect of the D. For the most part, they succeeded this past Sunday in their 26-13 loss in Miami, as Dolphins running back Bob Marley, er, Ricky Williams rushed for 105 yards, but that was spread out over a whopping 36 carries (a 2.9 average, with a 12-yarder as his longest jaunt). Nonetheless, the run defense improved at the expense of the pass defense, and Miami’s pride of the Ivys, Dartmouth alum Jay Fiedler, torched the Pats’ pass coverage for 190 yards on 17-for-27 passing. People didn’t think he'd have to be sharp, but it turns out he had to be — because of the mediocre Dolphin running game — and he was, for the most part. But it sure helped that the New England pass rushers gave him enough time in the pocket to scan the TV Guide for that night’s Sopranos start time and glance about for open receivers.

No, this game was not necessarily won by the Dolphins as much as it was lost by the Patriots. And has anyone looked more lost than wunderkind Tom Brady the last two weeks? Two interceptions in San Diego last week, two more plus a fumble on Sunday, all the while under constant siege by the swarming Fin pass rush. Obviously, it’s not all Brady’s fault, and the fact that the offensive coaches couldn’t get the ground game going forced the Pats to throw more than they would have liked, but it was frustrating to watch Brady go scoreless for four straight quarters dating back to the second half of last week’s game, then take the team on a five-play, 68-yard third-quarter march Sunday to cut the lead to 16-6. Yep, at times the Patriots offense looked unstoppable; next thing you know, they’re going three-and-out or letting the Dolphins regain the momentum as a result of inane penalties or poor execution.

Yet here’s what Patriots Nation should do: relax. Sure, the team is 3-2 after annihilating the Steelers and Jets in the first two weeks, but it turns out that those two squads are not nearly as good as some gave them credit for, and Kansas City and the Chargers are just the opposite. And give the Fish home field in early October and they’ll beat the Pats like a tom-tom, but the inevitable Fin-fade when the snow flies is why the team hasn’t been in a Super Bowl since 1983, and hasn’t worn the crown since ’74.

You’re probably sick of hearing the word, particularly if you’re an NFL bettor, but parity is dominating this sport like never before. That’s what a hard salary cap will do, and why it makes the league so exciting and unpredictable. Other than the expansion Houston Texans and the pseudo-expansion Cincinnati Bengals, any team can beat any team anywhere these days. We’ve seen it week after week already, and it’s only week five of the season.

If you’re worried about the 3-2 Pats not reaching the post-season, then perhaps you’ll take solace in the fact that while New England is in the midst of the most difficult part of the schedule, the fact is that the final six games of the schedule now appear to be easily winnable (parity be damned when teams are out of it and/or have quit in November), and there really is no dominant AFC team right now. Disagree? Well, let’s look at the other AFC teams and how they’ve played so far, and what the remainder of the schedule holds in store. We’re only just past the quarter-pole, after all, but some patterns have developed.

East: Buffalo’s obviously a lot better because of Drew Bledsoe, but the defense has given up 180 points in five games — a 36-points-per-game average. Yow. They’ve had a tough schedule, sure, but they still have two more each with the Pats and Dolphins, plus roadies in KC (where the defensive-minded Dolphins just gave up 48 points) and Green Bay. Anyone who thinks the Bills are better than the Pats right now is high. Miami, we’ve talked about, and though they’re 4-1, they have a tough Sunday-night match-up in Denver this week, and, like the Pats, have upcoming games against Green Bay, Chicago, and Oakland. The division crown probably will be decided in the regular-season finale at Foxborough on December 29th, and history tells us that frozen fish is never quite as satisfying as fresh fish right off the grill. The Jets, meanwhile, have proven themselves to be frauds, and at 1-4 (with only a fluky 37-31 OT win at Buffalo in week one) they will be lucky to escape the division cellar the rest of the way. The Patriots continue to play an imposing schedule, but after a critical home test against the Pack this Sunday, they’ll come off a restful bye week to host a beat-up Denver team before a three-game road skein commences at Buffalo, Chicago, and Oakland. Scary, you bet, but then they’ll finish the season with Foxborough games against Minnesota, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Dolphins, while making only two more road trips (to feast on woeful Detroit on Thanksgiving and a Monday-night date at underachieving Tennessee). A regular season-ending six-game win streak — at this point not improbable — would practically guarantee a playoff spot even if New England lost every one of its games between now and November 24 (which is not bloody likely).

South: Houston has a legitimate chance for one more win this season (hosting the Bungles on November 3), but it wasn’t expected to be a playoff factor anyway. Indianapolis is 3-1, but look who it’s played: Jacksonville, Miami (L), Houston, and Cincy. Let’s see how they do with the red-hot Ravens and at Pittsburgh and Washington the next three weeks (along with upcoming road tilts at Philly, Denver, and Tennessee). The Colts don’t scare me. Jacksonville has made a nice recovery after its opening-week home loss, but running back Fred Taylor’s due to get re-injured any day now, and that will be that for Tom Coughlin’s crew. Tennessee, a popular pre-season favorite to make the post-season, has stunningly fallen to 1-4, though the rest of its season schedule is remarkably pitfall-free, save for a Patriot visit on December 16th. But unless Indy falters, the Titans — two years removed from a Super Bowl berth— may be home for the holidays for the second straight season.

North: Baltimore’s path to this point is difficult to fathom; first the Ravens lose at Carolina to a team that was 1-15 last year, then get swamped at home by Tampa Bay, 25-0. They’re done, right? Suddenly, though, the Nevermores smoke Denver and Cleveland, and seem right back in the thick of things as they prepare for critical upcoming match-ups with the Colts, Jags, and Steelers. Who knows what’s going on there, but if Ray Lewis’s shoulder injury is serious, the Ravens are in a heap o’ trouble. Cincinnati is the only team already out of the playoff picture, and could be realistically heading for a winless season unless it can win at Houston next month. Right now, the University of Miami could probably beat the Bengals, a team that had been outscored 119-23 in its first four outings. Cleveland is tough to pinpoint right now, as the 2-3 Browns have lost a 40-39 home game to KC and split OT decisions with the Titans and Steelers. On Sunday, they spotted the Ravens 23 points before ultimately falling at home, 26-21. The Browns were the trendy pick by pre-season prognosticators as a potential Pats-like Cinderella this season, and their remaining schedule is fairly soft (except for this week’s trip to Tampa), but I’m just not sure. Pittsburgh has now lost three of four coming out of the gate, and Kordell Stewart’s been benched, but the schedule-makers for whatever reason have deigned to give the Steelers a very comfortable agenda the rest of the way, save for the finishing kick at Tampa and a home date with the Ravens. It’s obvious, though, that Pittsburgh was way overrated at the beginning of the season, and it has yet to recover from its opening-night debacle at the Razor’s Edge. In this division, though, anyone could wear the crown except Cincy, but any team to emerge from this set of teams into the post-season will hardly be battle-tested.

West: An incredibly intriguing division. Denver is now 4-1, and has garnered that mark by beating some pretty good teams: the Rams (well, we thought), the Niners, the Bills, and the Chargers. Strangely, though, the Broncs submitted a woeful effort at Baltimore a week ago, so while they remain a bit of a mystery, many questions should be answered when they surface in mid-November after this imposing four-game slate: Miami, at KC, at NE, and home with Oakland. Kansas City (3-2) exhibited its strengths when it nearly upset the Pats in week three and then pummeled the Dolphins a week ago, yet if not for the helmet-throwing incident in the season opener in Cleveland and a last-minute rally in New York on Sunday, the Chiefs could just as easily be 1-4. Like Denver, KC’s schedule the next five weeks is brutal, and by the time the turkey is carved in late November, the Chiefs could be roasted themselves, after playing home games against the Broncos, Raiders, and Bills, and road trips to San Diego and San Fran. Oakland is 4-0, the only remaining unbeaten NFL team; can’t begrudge them that. They’ve beaten up on Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Buffalo, and will take their act to St. Louie this weekend. I still believe that this team, led by 37-year-old QB Rich Gannon and 40-year-old (as of this Sunday) receiver Jerry Rice, will begin its fade by the time the frost is on the pumpkin, and when it’s time to hang the holly, the aging Silver and Black will be silver-haired and black-and-blue. That’s what a remaining schedule that includes the youthful Chargers (twice), Chiefs (twice), Broncos (twice), 49ers, Dolphins, and Patriots will do to you. Speaking of San Diego, it’s been a remarkable resurrection of the 4-1 Lightning Bolts in Southern California, but they were brought down to earth with a thud on Sunday at Denver. Don’t read too much into the Chargers’ win against New England a week ago; San Diego, like its division brethren, has a murderous schedule the rest of the way, and will be unlikely to remain above .500 for much longer, although this team is on the right track to greatness and a return to NFL relevancy.

There you have it. We’re 5/16ths of the way there, and what do we know? Nothin’. We do know that Patriots fans should not be giving up on their team, since six teams from the AFC (the four division winners and two wild cards) will make the playoffs, and if you had to speculate now, I’d say that Miami and Denver are the only locks, with Oakland and New England as definite maybes, and everyone else a toss-up. Say what you will, though, it’s tough to imagine Jacksonville, Cleveland, or San Diego stealing a wild card from New England. The assemblage of talent of the Super Bowl champs is too strong to fall into a significant losing streak, and it’s the strength of schedule that will pose the biggest problem for the local lads.

New England’s 3-2, with a two-game losing streak. Big deal. The breaks the team got en route to the title last year are not quite as rife this year. Did you expect that they would be?

Do you believe in Brady? Do you believe in Belichick and his staff? Do you believe in this team’s defense? Offense? Do you believe in this team’s ability to bounce back?

One last question: take a look at the NFL standings right now, and the teams that comprise them.

Whose bandwagon would you rather be on right now?

Thought so.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays on BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com

 

Issue Date: October 7, 2002
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2002

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