The NFL regular-season recap
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG
How many sportswriters do you know who will go back to September and acknowledge their lousy pre-season NFL predictions? Not many, I would guess. Well, I’ll be among the few, the proud, the sub-Marines.
We’ll do an NFL playoff preview on Friday, but for now, let’s just look back how the season went for each of the 32 teams, and whether they lived up or down to expectations.
AFC East — Original prediction: New England 10-6, Miami 10-6, NYJ 9-7, Buffalo 7-9. Actual finish: New York, New England, and Miami all 9-7, Buffalo 8-8. Grade: not bad, considering all four predictions were within a game of being correct, and the Jets’ log was right on.
Sure, there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth around New England today because the defending Super Bowl champs didn’t even make the playoffs 11 months after carting off the Lombardi Trophy. Still, as disappointed as we are, imagine what it’s like in Miami. The Dolphins led the division from week one through week 15, only to lose it in the final weekend — in overtime after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead. The Dolphins, despite defeating the playoff-bound Colts, Raiders, and Jets this season, can look only at their final two games — extra-session losses at Minnesota and New England — to understand their fate. Both of those games were well in the Fins’ hands, er, fins, and both were inexplicably blown late. The Patriots? Well, they can point to their four-game swoon earlier this fall, which included back-to-back home losses to Denver and Green Bay, along with a late-season schedule that saw them lose to two of the league’s hottest teams — the Titans and Jets. The Jets are in the playoffs because they fought back from a 1-4 (and 2-5) start to win seven of their last nine. They deserve to be there, and their run is very similar to the Pats’ roll to New Orleans last winter, particularly with a revitalized defense and a second-string quarterback leading the way. Buffalo’s 8-8 finish is a marked improvement over its 3-13 record last year, and Drew Bledsoe’s obviously a big reason why.
AFC South — Original prediction: Tennessee 11-5, Indianapolis 10-6, Jacksonville 5-9, Houston 3-13. Actual finish: Tennessee 11-5, Indy 10-6, Jacksonville 6-10, Houston 4-12. Grade: quite good, seeing as how the 1-2 teams were exactly right, and the Jags and Texans were only a game off.
Tennessee is another team that’s white-hot right now, and with its second seed, it could very well advance to San Diego in late January. Like the Jets, the Titans started off 1-4, then won 10 of their next 11 to win the division going away. They’ve already beaten playoff teams Philadelphia, Indy (twice), Pittsburgh, and the Giants, and they’re sound (though beat-up) on both sides of the ball. The Colts secured a playoff berth at the expense of the Pats and Dolphins, and new coach Tony Dungy should be commended for the team’s return to the post-season. Down the stretch, they won at Philly, Denver, and Cleveland, and while their schedule was nothing like the 9-7 teams currently on the outside looking in — Denver, NE, and Miami — they’re 10-6, and the rest of ’em aren’t. Jacksonville just didn’t have the personnel this year, and its 6-10 record cost head coach Tom Coughlin his job Monday. The expansion Texans have to be happy with four wins, especially since they doubled the long-established Bengals’ win output.
AFC North — Original prediction: Pittsburgh 12-4, Cleveland 9-7, Baltimore 7-9, Cincinnati 5-11. Actual finish: Pittsburgh 10-5-1, Cleveland 9-7, Baltimore 7-9, Cincinnati 2-14. Grade: not bad again, though the Steelers were not nearly as good as expected, and the Bengals were even worse than predicted, if that was possible.
The division-winning Steelers didn’t exactly have a difficult schedule this season, and they even lost at home to the Texans, but they did win at Tampa Bay and beat the Browns twice, and consequently emerged as the best of a very mediocre division. The Browns, in only their fourth year back in the NFL, have to be delighted to have reached the post-season, even though they too had a pretty easy road to the playoffs. Nobody, though, can tell me that Cleveland deserves to be in the playoffs more than Miami or New England or even Denver does. The Ravens’ record is about as good as anyone could have expected, and they certainly were hurt when linebacker extraordinaire Ray Lewis’s injuries limited him to just five games this season. Cincinnati? Well, coach Dick LeBeau on Monday suffered the same fate as the Jags’ Coughlin, and the Bungles need to find a way to recall what it’s like to have a winning season. That, after all, hasn’t happened since 1990. (Rumor has it the Bengals were invited to the imploding of Cinergy Field, in Cincinnati, on Sunday morning. Their viewing stand had been set up on the inside of the stadium, but alas, they had other plans — imploding in Buffalo, 27-9, to complete their worst-ever 2-14 season.)
AFC West — Original prediction: Oakland 10-6, Denver 8-8, San Diego 8-8, KC 4-10. Actual finish: Oakland 11-5, Denver 9-7, San Diego 8-8, and KC 8-8. Grade: pretty good again, although the Chiefs turned out to be much better than predicted.
The Raiders did what they had to do in arguably the league’s toughest division and fought off an early four-game losing streak to win seven of their final eight. Barring age-related fatigue, the top-seeded Raiders are the best team on paper in the conference right now. The Broncos at one point seemed playoff-bound, but a 2-5 finish left them out in the cold like their friends, the Patriots and Dolphins. The Chargers, under new coach Marty Schottenheimer, relived the past and stumbled through their second-straight late-season collapse, as the Bolts jumped out to a 6-1 record, only to lose seven of their next nine to finish at .500 for the second-straight year. Kansas City, a team without a legitimate defense, still has to be happy with its progress under coach Dick Vermeil, and had one of the league’s most electrifying rushers in Priest Holmes.
NFC East — Original prediction: Philadelphia 11-5, Washington 9-7, New York 8-8, Dallas 6-10. Actual finish: Philly 12-4, Giants 10-6, Washington 7-9, Dallas 5-11. Grade: so-so, although record-wise we weren’t so far off, save for the Giants’ resurgence.
The biggest story of the year was the ability of the Eagles to continue to dominate even without the services of injured quarterback Donovan McNabb. With home-field advantage in hand, Philadelphia — with or without McNabb’s return — could be headed to only its second Super Bowl in franchise history. The surprising Giants were left for dead after a dreadful loss to Houston in Week 11, but they bounced back from a 6-6 record to win four straight — including an OT thriller over the Eagles on Saturday — to clinch a wild-card spot. Jim Fassel and his coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for keeping the always feisty Giants focused. Washington, DC, got a more exciting team under former Gator coach Steve Spurrier, but it didn’t translate to a ton of wins this year. They were still markedly better than "America’s Team," and big changes are most likely in the offing in Big D this winter. And finally, Carolina’s Panthers have to be pleased — not with their 4-9 finish after a 3-0 start — but with their steady improvement over last season’s 1-15 debacle.
NFC South — Original prediction: Tampa Bay 11-5, Atlanta 8-8, New Orleans 7-9, Carolina 4-12. Actual finish: Tampa 12-4, Atlanta 9-6-1, New Orleans 9-7, Carolina 7-9. Grade: not bad; got the order right, and the records weren’t so far off.
Neither division winner Tampa nor wild-card winner Atlanta has played particularly well in its last three games, and that does not bode well for either squad in terms of long-term planning. Tampa lost a week ago at home in a game that could have clinched its home-field throughout, and Atlanta — in a must-win game to make the playoffs — lost at Cleveland Sunday but slipped in the back door to the post-season when New Orleans lost. The Saints were the NFC’s biggest late-season disappointment, as the apparently playoff-bound team dropped all three of its three "gimme" games — Minnesota, Cincy, and Carolina — to close out the season at 7-9 and finish out of the playoff hunt.
NFC North — Original prediction: Green Bay 12-4, Chicago 10-6, Minnesota 7-9, Detroit 4-12. Actual finish: Green Bay 12-4, Minnesota 6-10, Chicago 4-12, Detroit 3-13. Grade: other than Chicago’s inexplicable fall from grace, a pretty accurate prognostication.
How a team with a first-round bye and home-field playoffs advantage riding on the outcome can play so poorly is beyond comprehension, but the Packers’ mauling at the hands of the Jets Sunday makes one wonder how good they really are. Green Bay also played in a creampuff division, and while it won five of six against its division-mates, it also beat Atlanta, New England, Miami, and San Francisco this year, so the Pack must be pretty good, right? We’ll see, now that they have home-field for one week only, and open with the mercurial Michael Vick and the Falcons this weekend. The Vikings came on strong toward the end, and played solidly from about Week 10 on. Unfortunately, that was after a 2-7 start, from which they never recovered. The Bears need a whole lot of help in the off-season, starting with a new QB, and the Lions likewise have a lot of retooling to do, although their QB situation seems to be set for the immediate future.
NFC West — Original prediction: St. Louis 14-2, San Francisco 11-5, Seattle 7-9, Arizona 5-11. Actual finish: SF 10-6, Seattle 7-9, St. Louis 7-9, Arizona 5-11. Grade: quite good, if you throw out the Rams’ collapse, which not only was unfathomable, but completely unexpected.
The 49ers benefited from what turned out to be a very weak division, and did not beat a playoff-bound team after week eight. Like the Packers, the Niners’ weaknesses have been exposed at times, and not only is this team unlikely to go far into the playoffs, but it may even lose to the Giants at home this weekend. The Seahawks, under former Green Bay head coach Mike Holmgren, continue to be a mediocre team, and that’s about all you can say about them, other than to congratulate them for the three-game win streak with which they finished the season. The Rams? Like their 2002 Super Bowl opponents, the Patriots, the Rams are also out of the playoffs, but their fall from prominence is downright shocking. Former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner did not win one game for St. Louis this year, and he was injured in the other eight games — six which were victories engineered by back-up Marc Bulger. Finally, Arizona. Who cares?
It’s been a long, wacky year, and who would have guessed that New England, Miami, Denver, San Diego, Chicago, New Orleans, and St. Louis would not even reach the post-season? Lotsa good teams left, though, and only one thing is guaranteed.
For the fifth-straight year, a brand-new Super Bowl champion will be crowned.
Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays on BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com
Issue Date: December 30, 2002
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2002
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