The NFL playoff preview
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG
Well, our hometown gridiron heroes are nowhere to be found this NFL post-season, but if it’s any consolation, this year’s playoff picture is as cloudy as ever, with nearly each of the remaining 12 teams having a decent shot at the whole enchilada three weeks hence. What that should mean is an ever-present Any Given Sunday (or Saturday) syndrome, with exciting games and finishes being the norm rather than the exception. While one might say that the Browns don't have a shot at Super Bowl glory, you’d have to admit that outside of our New England borders last season, no one would have given the local unit any chance, either.
It sometimes depends on who’s hot, and who’s not; who’s got the weapons, and who’s got the duds; who’s got the karma, and who’s got the jinx.
So who does have what it takes to win Super Bowl XXXVII in San Diego on January 26? Well, that’s what we’re here for.
The AFC’s remaining playoff teams (in alphabetical order):
Cleveland (9-7, wild-card winner): Just three years ago, the Browns were an expansion team, very much like the Texans of this past season. The turning point of the four-year-old reborn franchise’s history was when it hired University of Miami coach Butch Davis to coach the Browns. Good things have happened since, and here are the Browns, back in the post-season for the first time since 1995. In terms of numbers, the Browns are definitely a long shot to advance very far, since they’re just 13th overall in offense and 11th in defense in the conference, and their best player — quarterback Tim Couch — broke his fibula in last Sunday’s playoff clincher and is out for the remainder of the playoffs. The immortal Kelly Holcomb will therefore take the snaps for the Browns, and only the resurgence of former BC running back William Green gives the Cleveland Faithful hope for an upset in Pittsburgh this weekend. The Steelers won both regular-season meetings with the Browns this past season, and that was with Couch healthy; with Couch on the couch, it looks to be a good old-fashioned dawg-pounding.
Indianapolis (10-6, wild-card winner): A coaching change certainly helped this club, as the Colts’ team defense improved from AFC worst to fourth-ranked with the introduction of former Buccaneer coach Tony Dungy. If you haven’t followed the team closely, you probably aren’t aware that Edgerrin James was not the featured back this season, and second-year RB Dominic Rhodes was, although the two combined for more than 2000 rushing yards. Not surprisingly, though, QB Peyton Manning was the focal point of the offense, and Indy rode his arm to the fifth-best offense in the AFC. After a 4-1 start, the Colts lost three straight before pounding the Eagles in Philadelphia to ignite a 6-2 run that ultimately resulted in the wild-card berth. Though Indianapolis has the top-ranked pass defense in the conference, they’re only 12th-best in rushing defense, and that’s where Curtis Martin and crew could do some damage this weekend in the Meadowlands. And on the frozen, beat-up turf of the Jets’ deafening home stadium, Manning’s penchant for audiblizing will be reduced, and his offense could very well struggle.
New York Jets (9-7, AFC East champion): Tell me if you’ve heard this before: struggling team turns to a young buck that turns around the franchise. Once 1-4, the team goes on a spectacular run, winning eight of its next 11 and wins the division on the season’s last day. With only one home game on its playoff slate, it still manages to advance all the way to the Super Bowl. Patriots? Nah; old news. Nope, you guessed it, it’s your J-E-T-S, JETS-JETS-JETS. To New York’s credit, the team could have come out of its bye week and begun its mailing-in of the balance of the season, and certainly its Week-14 loss to then 3-11 Chicago could have tolled the death knell on their playoff hopes. Nonetheless, the Jets wear the crown that neither the Dolphins nor the Pats could hold on to, and while a 9-7 record will hardly strike fear in any foe’s heart, Herman Edwards’s gang did beat Miami, San Diego, Denver, New England, and Green Bay when all of those opponents were playing well. The Jets, like the New England team of last year, fears no one, and no game — not even Oakland on the road (where the Raiders escaped with a 26-20 regular-season decision) — would be an impossible task for Gang Green.
Oakland (11-5, AFC West champion): Yep, still mad. They won’t ever let that Snow Game debacle go, even if they do go all the way. Oakland heading into this year’s playoffs is in a lot better shape than they were a year ago, when they finished the regular season with four straight losses. This year their four-game losing streak ended in week eight, and they coasted to the West title on the wave of a 7-1 finish. Sure, they’re old, but they have the league MVP in Rich Gannon, two Hall of Fame receivers, and a well-respected coach (Bill Callahan) who has helped the Raiders keep their focus on the big prize. With the top-ranked offense in the NFL, the second-best rushing defense, a first-round bye, and home field throughout the playoffs, the Raiders on paper should be able to book the short charter flight down the coast for the last weekend of the month.
Pittsburgh (10-5-1, AFC North champion): You look at the Steelers’ season, and you really struggle to find a quality team that Pittsburgh beat this season. Sure, they defeated 9-7 Cleveland by a field goal in each of their meetings, knocked off a struggling Indy team at home in Week 7, and they did beat a Shaun King–led Bucs squad on the road in Week 16, but other than that? Nada. And don’t forget that they opened the season with blowout losses to the Patriots and Raiders. Lucky for the Steelers, they are in a creampuff division where no one of substance resides, and they also faced the teams of the AFC South, where Houston and Jacksonville live. And Pittsburgh lost to the Texans. At home. The Steelers should advance to Tennessee next week, but the magic-carpet ride should end there.
Tennessee (11-5, AFC South champion): If it weren’t for those god-awful uniforms, the Titans would be a fashionable pick to root for. Well, considering the other teams left in the AFC bracket of the tournament, maybe they do deserve a rooting interest, since they too have bounced back from a lackluster start to make a strong bid for postseason glory. After beating the Eagles on Opening Day, Tennessee proceeded to lose its next four games, including inexplicable defeats to the Cowpokes and Redskins, and a blowout loss in Oakland. Since that 1-4 beginning, though, the Titans have won nine of 10, including victories over the Colts, Steelers, Giants, Colts, and Patriots. Tennessee doesn’t bowl you over with outstanding offensive or defensive stats, but neither did the Patriots last year. And with a first-round bye, and possibly the Steelers on the horizon — a team Tennessee’s already beaten this season — I see the Titans bracing for a showdown in the land of the Silver & Black in two weeks.
The NFC’s remaining playoff teams (in alphabetical order):
Atlanta (9-6-1, wild-card winner): In week 12, Falcon quarterback Michael Vick rushed for 173 yards, passed for the same, and scored the second of his TDs in overtime to beat the Vikings. After that game, he was hailed as the most electrifying player in sports since Michael Jordan. Well, Michael V. didn’t quite keep it going in the same way Michael J. did, because the Falcons — then 8-3-1 — lost three of their last four, including a game last Sunday in Cleveland they presumably had to have in order to make the playoffs. Luckily for them, New Orleans completed one of the worst choke jobs in recent memory that day, and the Falcons flew in through the back door. Depending on Vick’s heroics, Atlanta could extend their season beyond this weekend, but chilly temps and snow in the forecast in Green Bay could put a quick end to the Falcons’ return to the post-season.
Green Bay (12-4, NFC North champion): The Packers could have been sitting in front of the tube this weekend — with a bye in hand and potentially two home games in their future — if they had merely taken care of business in the Meadowlands last weekend. Instead, they threw out the stinkeroo of stinkeroos, getting blasted by the Jets and thereby costing them the week off and home-field advantage. NFL MVP runner-up Brett Favre probably won’t have his favorite receiving target, Donald Driver, available Saturday, so the Pack may have to rest its hopes on Patriot cast-off Terry Glenn. God help them. Green Bay excels in passing offense and passing defense, but it’s next-to-last in the NFL in rush defense, so containing Vick may be a problem. If the Pack had claimed home-field for the duration of the NFC tournament, I’d give them a real shot at San Diego; without it, they’ll have a tough time against a rested Tampa team next weekend.
New York Giants (10-6, wild-card winner): How did a team that lost to Arizona and Houston make the post-season? On the wings of the NFC’s second-ranked offense (really!) and the foundation of a tough schedule. Despite those aforementioned losses, the Giants did beat St. Louis, Indy, and Philadelphia along with tough three-point losses to the Niners and Titans en route to their wild-card berth, and this team should be commended for fighting back with four wins in the final four weeks when its playoff chances seemed hopeless. Kerry Collins needs to keep up what he’s been doing, and get production out of the NFC’s second-ranked rusher (Tiki Barber) and receiver (Amani Toomer) to continue New York’s run. Facing a struggling 49er team on the road shouldn’t scare the Giants, and they could even emerge with a victory if San Francisco continues its lethargic streak. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.
Philadelphia (12-4, NFC East champion): Unless the return of QB Donovan McNabb from an ankle fracture proves to be a distraction, the Eagles have their best chance of being Super Bowl bound since 1981, when they lost their one and only appearance (to the Raiders). A rematch 22 years later wouldn’t be out of the question, with or without the presence of the mercurial McNabb, because Philly all season long has been winning with defense and grit. Back-up Koy Detmer will QB if McNabb isn’t ready next weekend, and third-stringer A.J. Feeley — who won four of five down the stretch — will also be at the ready. The Eagles have been the most impressive and consistent team all season long, and there’s no reason to believe that their date with destiny should be derailed.
San Francisco (10-6, NFC West champion): After starting the season 7-2, including wins over the Giants, Rams, and Raiders, the 49ers have sleepwalked the rest of the way, thanks to a moribund division and little incentive. San Francisco staggered to a 3-4 finish, a run marked with unimpressive victories over Seattle, Dallas, and Arizona and stunning losses to the Chargers, Eagles, and Packers. On defense, the 49ers are nothing special, but the heroics of running backs Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow — along with the conference’s fourth-ranked QB, Jeff Garcia — got the team to where it is today. San Fran could have used a bye week to retool, but without it, going up against a hot team on your home field — where you lost two of your last three — does not exactly inspire confidence.
Tampa Bay (12-4, NFC South champion): Tough to figure this team. The Bucs have the NFL’s best defense by far, which should carry them a long way. On the other hand, their offense, while led by the NFC’s top-rated quarterback, Brad Johnson, is only 11th-best in the conference and doesn’t exactly instill terror in the hearts of opposing defenses. The team has collected some impressive wins this season (seven opponents were held to single-digit totals), including a 6-2 road record which should dispel some myths. Nonetheless, during the final month Tampa Bay lost at New Orleans, struggled at Detroit, lost at home to Pittsburgh, and could only muster five field goals against Chicago’s 25th-ranked defense in the regular-season finale. With a bye week and a home game against a bruised and battered foe next weekend, the Bucs should reach the AFC title game, but if it’s in Philadelphia, Tampa’s hopes for their first Super Bowl appearance could be shipwrecked.
Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com
Issue Date: January 3, 2002
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2002
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