In three weeks’ time, the 30 major-league baseball teams will take to the fields and begin the 2003 campaign. The upcoming season will no doubt offer its fair share of thrilling finishes, pitchers’ duels, jockeying for wild cards, and displays of offensive firepower. In September, the division races will heat up, and by early October, the remaining field for the opportunity to win the World Series trophy will be reduced to just eight teams. By Halloween, a champion will be crowned.

As we speak now, of those teams currently limbering up in spring-training contests, more than a handful can reasonably be expected to contend for post-season play. On the other hand, though, we present to you the have-nots and the also-rans — teams already regarded as having little or no chance to be anywhere near the top of their respective divisions come Labor Day. Those woebegone teams are the ones we’ll focus on today: franchises that can already be seen as virtually eliminated mathematically from the pennant races even before the season starts.

There is a plethora of reasons why these teams, even at this early date, have little or no chance. It could be the cheapness, or, shall we say, frugality governing the team’s payroll composition. It could be age factors — does the roster comprise too many youngsters or geezers? It could be matters of team chemistry, or a team in the throes of rebuilding, or simply organizational mismanagement. Whatever the reasons, the hometown Red Sox’ chances of breaking the 85-year curse are just a little bit better when you eliminate the following 14 teams from the mix.

Montreal Expos — I know, you might be saying, "Hey, these guys went 83-79 last season — good for second place in the NL East — with the lowest payroll in the majors! How can you rule them out so quickly?" Simple, fromage-breath. The Expos lost their best pitcher from last season (Bartolo Colon), received in return a borderline has-been ("El Duque" Hernandez), play in the worst facility in baseball, still have the lowest payroll in the league, have seen every fellow member of their division improve, and are probably a lame-duck organization, destined to be eliminated and relocated by year’s end. Even worse, Les Expos have to play 20 more road games (and therefore 20 fewer home games) than any other team, since the franchise agreed to play 20 of its "home" games in Puerto Rico. So not only will the added travel take its toll (see: 2002 Chicago Bears), but that so-called home-field advantage will be negligible.

Florida Marlins — Another team suffering from tight-fisted ownership, the Marlins will not be playing any games in the Caribbean, but they might as well be, since they’re lucky to draw 10,000 fans nightly at Pro Player Stadium. In addition, their $41 million payroll from 2002 has been reduced by the exits of Cliff Floyd ($6.5 million), Charles Johnson ($5 million), and Kevin Millar ($900,000), and the team that remains is made up of veritable no-names.

Cincinnati Reds — They have the youngest 40-man roster in the NL (average age: 26.68 years), and one of the shallowest talent pools in their minor-league system as a result of cutbacks in player development. And despite the fact that the team is moving into the brand-spankin’-new Great American Ball Park, the projected added revenue did not translate into any major free-agent signings during the off-season. This team went 78-84 last season, and did not make enough improvements for this once-proud franchise to be a significant player again this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates — Brian Giles and Jason Kendall are the only two certified stars on this team, and between them, their two combined salaries constitute one-third of the Bucs’ $42 million total payroll. What that means is that the rest of the team is made of who-dats? and hopefuls, and it’s sad to think that just 10 years ago the Pirates, behind Barry Bonds, were almost World Series–bound. For Pirates fans, that was a long time ago, and there is no hope in sight anytime soon.

Chicago Cubs — Here there is a ray of hope, now that former Giant skipper Dusty Baker has come on board to right the ship. Nonetheless, Sammy Sosa does not a championship squad make, and the team that finished with nearly 100 losses last year has not dramatically improved roster-wise for this season. The team lopped off nearly $26 million in salary from last year’s overpaid $75 million team, but Baker alone won’t be able to make the difference to mold this squad into a playoff-caliber contender.

Milwaukee Brewers — Where to start? Last year, outfielder Jeffrey Hammonds was the team’s top-paid player at $7.5 million. Who the heck is Jeffrey Hammonds? Next up is Mark Loretta, at $5 million. Come again? Well, get back, Loretta, because he’s now in San Diego, and one look at the Brewers’ roster he left behind makes you wonder how they’ll get back to where they once belonged. Can you name Milwaukee’s manager? Probably not. Anyway, he’s Ned Yost, and he’ll have a very difficult time improving on the Brew Crew’s embarrassing 56-106 log from last year. Luckily for local fans, beer is brewed nearby.

Colorado Rockies — They stunk last year, even with Mike Hampton (seven-year contract, $105 million) on the hill. Little is expected of them again this year after their 73-89 2002 season. Denny Neagle is their "ace" now, and Larry Walker is still their top slugger. Scan the rest of their line-up, and you’ll feel the same way I do. Next!

San Diego Padres — The team that Larry Lucchino and Theo Epstein left behind is hoping to build on last year’s 66-96 season, a year that saw the squad go barely .500 at home and finish 32 games behind division-leading Arizona. Luckily, they still have two of their best players, closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman and outfielder Ray Lankford. What’s that? They don’t? Hoffman’s out till midsummer after shoulder surgery, and the team decided to let Lankford walk instead of paying him $7.5 million? Well, at least the weather’s beautiful and the zoo’s nice.

Baltimore Orioles — Monumental mistakes made by upper management in recent years have left this once-majestic franchise in shambles. They still owe long-retired Albert Belle another $15 million this season, and three of their hurlers — Pat Hentgen, Scott Erickson, and Buddy Groom — are all over 35. Their top-two pitchers, Sidney Ponson and second-year phenom Rodrigo Lopez, can only carry this aged squad so far, and it’s 20 years and counting now since the Birds’ last title.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays — Like the Celtics and Vin Baker, the Rays are stuck with high-priced "slugger" Greg Vaughn, and are on the hook for $9.25 million this season. Vaughn, you should know, batted .163 last year. Tampa Bay’s median salary is about $267,000 (the Yanks’ is around $2.8 million), the team payroll (around $35 million) is the smallest in the league, the franchise has finished in last place each year of its five-year existence, and it is coming off a woeful 55-106 record. That won’t change this year. And if you thought Lou Piniella gnashed his teeth and threw too many tantrums with talent-laden clubs in Seattle and Cincinnati, wait’ll you see him throw a nutty on a regular basis with this bunch. That prospect may be the only reason to buy a Devil Rays ticket this season.

Cleveland Indians — Nearly all vestiges of the 1997 World Series team are pretty much gone, and all that’s left is prospects and prayers. There’s some good young pitching lurking, and Omar Vizquel and Ellis Burks are still around, but they’re nearly 36 and 38, respectively, and the rest of the offense is hardly fear-inducing. Losing Jim Thome to free agency was the latest dagger to the heart of this proud organization, and management apparently has decided it doesn’t want to spend the money anymore. For that, Tribe fans will continue to suffer long and hard.

Kansas City — The Royals and their small-market ways of doing business have relegated the team to loser status for each of the past eight seasons. In three of the past four years, KC has lost at least 97 games, and last year’s 62-100 team was the worst in franchise history. Even worse, the Royals lost their best pitcher, Paul Byrd (17-11, 3.90 ERA), to Atlanta via free agency, and this team is undoubtedly facing more heartbreak and growing impatience from its fans this season.

Detroit Tigers — Former Tigers legend Alan Trammell took over a team that lost 106 games last year, and hired former Detroit greats Kirk Gibson and Lance Parrish to serve as coaches on his staff. Nonetheless, all you need to know is that 37-year-old knuckleballer Steve Sparks is the ace of the staff, despite his 8-16 record last year and his career marks of 56 wins, 63 losses, and a 4.76 ERA. He is the best the Tigers have to offer, and the roster of everyday players is even worse. Another long summer of blues in Motown.

Texas Rangers — Texas had a payroll of $105 million last year and still finished last in the AL West with a 72-90 record. It was pitching that cost ’em, and no amount of A-Rod or Juan Gon or Carl Everett was going to change the team’s fortunes. A total of $54 million will be spent this year on the combined salaries of the three aforementioned players and pitcher Chan Ho Park, but everyone on this squad underachieved last season, and there’s no reason to expect that things will improve deep in the heart of Texas this summer. And now that they’ve added powder kegs Urgueth Urbina and Esteban Yan to the bullpen, there’s even more reason to believe that this team will implode before year’s end.

There you have it. In my view, barring a random miracle, 14 teams out of 30 appear to be non-contenders for the upcoming season, leaving 16 to vie for the hardware handed out by commissioner Bud Selig this October. That scenario improves the odds for the remaining teams, to be sure, as long as they can take care of business during the regular season against the poor sacks listed above.

And remember, all ye Red Sox whiners and complainers: if not for some simple twists of fate, you too would be among the legions supporting the aforementioned teams of despair, and you’d have a helluva lot more to complain about this upcoming season than a "bullpen by committee."

So lighten up, Francis. Things could be a lot worse. Right, Tigers fans?

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com