Just as everyone predicted, the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago Cubs appear headed for the World Series this October. At least that’s what can be surmised from what has thus far taken place through the first month of the major-league baseball season.

Obviously, not much can be extrapolated from just 25 games of a 162-game season, but the young season has certainly offered up some interesting developments — the most pronounced of which confirms the hypothesis that low payrolls and no-name rosters don’t necessarily spell doom. So let’s take a look at what the first 30 days of the baseball season would lead us to believe.

In the American League East, no one is the least bit surprised that through Sunday the Yankees have won 20 of their first 25 contests. And the pinstripers have been able to do it without their team catalyst, shortstop Derek Jeter, who is recovering from a separated shoulder suffered on Opening Day, and their inimitable closer, Mariano Rivera, who has been hampered by groin problems and has yet to throw a pitch this season. New York hasn’t missed a beat, though; the team leads the majors in hitting with a .298 average, and is second in the league in pitching, as its starters have lost just two games total to start the season. Second baseman Alfonso Soriano has been tearing up the league, as he sits atop the batting race (.388), the home-run board (nine), the hit parade (45), and the runs-scored list (26). The Yankees, like the Red Sox, have benefited from a relatively easy schedule in April, although New York has already swept all seven meetings with the once potent Twins. Meanwhile, the Sox, despite their well-documented bullpen problems, are 16-9 and just four games behind the Empire. Boston’s second and third starters (Tim Wakefield and Derek Lowe) both got rocked in their most recent outings, but the fourth and fifth starters (Casey Fossum and John Burkett) threw well in their most recent appearances, so it appears that Sox fans will continue to be confounded by their pitching staff’s performances from week to week. The Orioles are surprisingly at .500, and even the Devil Rays have managed to win two of every five contests, which is impressive for a team that lost 106 games last year. Tampa has yet to play a team not from its own division, but its 10-15 record when nearly half those games were against the Yanks and Sox is not bad stuff. The Blue Jays, expected to improve significantly this year with their nice blend of talented youngsters, have struggled out of the box and are already 10 and a half games back, but the only "easy" marks they’ve had on the schedule thus far have been the rejuvenated D-Rays; everybody else has been the meat of the American League.

Baseball’s biggest surprise to this point is taking place in the AL Central, where Kansas City has won 17 of its first 22 games to take a five-game lead in the division. The Royals have the second-lowest payroll in the majors at just over $40 million, but under the tutelage of former Sox catcher Tony Pena, they’ve been feasting on their division mates. The second-place White Sox have had so-so pitching but lousy hitting (and stadium security), which is a trait that they share with the disappointing Twins, whose aforementioned problems with the Yanks have contributed to their 10-14 start. Minnesota, a team that got all the way to the ALCS last season, is hitting just .246 as a team, and its pitching staff has given up nearly four and a half runs a game. Then you’ve got the stumblebums from Cleveland and Detroit, with the once-proud Tribe struggling to compete on a newly shaved $48 million payroll, and the Tigers managing just three wins in 23 contests en route to falling 14 and a half games behind the Royals. Welcome back to the big leagues, Alan Trammell.

The Seattle Mariners have won 12 of their last 15 games to take the early lead in the always tough AL West. The M’s are 6-1 in one-run games, and though Ichiro Suzuki is only batting .257, 40-year-old DH Edgar Martinez has picked up the slack for the team with his sizzling .361 average. Right on their heels is Oakland, which hasn’t got the overwhelming pitching that was predicted for it, but which still leads the AL with a 3.42 team ERA and is only a game behind Seattle. Struggling to find their identity thus far are the defending world champs, the injury-riddled Angels. Despite baseball’s second-best offense, the Angels are three games below .500 and are tied for last in the division with Texas. Pitching has been Anaheim’s main problem to this point, and two starters on the disabled list certainly don’t help. Luckily for them, however, the city’s sports fans are probably too mesmerized by the success of the Mighty Ducks hockey team to notice the Halos’ slow start and 4.64 team ERA. Texas, not surprisingly, is the division’s other cellar dweller, but the Rangers’ schedule to this point has included only Oakland, Texas, Seattle, Boston, and the Yankees, so their 11-14 record is nothing to sniff at.

Over in the senior circuit, baseball’s most competitive division is hands-down the NL East. Atlanta, Montreal, and Philadelphia all sport 15-10 records, and the attendance-challenged Marlins are only two and a half games back. The Braves shook off a rough start to the season to win 11 of their last 13, but it is their league-leading offense that has taken center stage rather than their 11th-best pitching staff. Right there with ’em is the pride of San Juan, the surprising Expos, who have played 10 of their 16 "home" games on Puerto Rican soil. Montreal also has a couple of starters on the DL, but its 2.99 team ERA leads the majors, and if the team can handle the confusing travel logistics all season long, it’ll be dangerous come September. The Phillies, after losing four of five a couple of weeks ago, have won five of their last six, highlighted by Kevin Millwood’s no-hitter over the Giants on Sunday. Off to a truly disappointing start are the New York Mets, who are 11-14 after getting swept in a doubleheader at home by Arizona on Sunday. A quartet of former Red Sox are on the Mets’ roster, but who would have guessed that Tony Clark (.296) would be the only significant contributor among the foursome (Cliff Floyd’s hitting .243, Mo Vaughn’s at .206, and Rey Sanchez is flailing away at a .119 clip)? The team average of .229 is the worst in the league, and only the pitching of Al Leiter (3-0) and Tom Glavine (3-2) has kept the ship afloat.

In the NL Central, the Dusty Baker–led Cubs have been the league’s most pleasant surprise. Chicago has played only six games against teams with a winning record, but at 14-11 the Cubs are the division’s only team above .500. Chicago has benefited from solid starting pitching from Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, along with a potent offense, which is fourth-best in the NL. St. Louis and Houston have both gotten off to substandard starts, with St. Louis bogged down by questionable pitching (with the exception of Woody Williams’s efforts) and the Astros plagued by deficiencies on both sides of the ball. Luckily for both St. Louis and Houston, they’ll have the ability to improve their records significantly down the road at the expense of division mates Pittsburgh (10-14), Cincinnati (10-15), and Milwaukee (9-16).

Finally, the retooled San Francisco Giants have been the runaway leaders in the NL West. For a team that lost so many components of last year’s pennant-winner (Jeff Kent, Kenny Lofton, David Bell, Reggie Sanders, Livan Hernandez, Russ Ortiz), the Giants’ 18-6 start is nothing short of miraculous. San Fran is batting only .257 as a team, and its 4.15 team ERA is nothing to crow about, but it’s the best in the league defensively, and the Giants have benefited from a relatively easy schedule to date. Last year’s batting champ, Barry Bonds, is hitting only .270, but new manager Felipe Alou has gotten 11 wins out of his top-four starters and another three out of set-up man Jim Brower. Four and a half games behind the Giants but still a surprise are the Colorado Rockies, whose 14-11 log has come at the expense of Chicago, Arizona, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Houston. With the league’s 12th-rated offense, the Rockies are doing it with pitching. Only the Braves and Cards have better staff stats, and Shawn Chacon has gone 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his five starts for the Rocks. The Dodgers have gotten off to an inauspicious start, and LA’s struggles can be traced straight back to its offense. The Dodgers’ 3.09 staff ERA is second only to Montreal’s, but the team is batting just .247 and has scored just 93 runs in its 25 games. Another team struggling for runs is Arizona (10-15), whose 2001 World Series crown is quickly becoming a distant memory. Randy Johnson finally won his first game of the year on Sunday, but his 6.94 ERA would indicate he might be losing something on his fastball. The Big Unit and fellow ace Curt Schilling are both 1-2, and converted closer Byung-Hyun Kim is 1-4 in his first season as a starter. Given the ages of the trio (39, 37, and 34, respectively), the D-Backs could be in serious trouble if their starting pitching does not improve quickly. Luckily, they still have the Padres in their division, and San Diego — which has only played nine home games this season — is unlikely to give up its cellar dwelling to the likes of Arizona (or anyone else, for that matter). The no-name Padres are 19th in hitting and 24th in pitching, but Red Sox fans will be pleased to know that former utility man Lou Merloni is batting .306 for the team, although he’s seen action in only eight games.

That’s where we stand as we close the book on 15 percent of the 2003 baseball season.

For Sox fans, the scariest thing — other than the prospect of Chad Fox moseying in from the bullpen in a one-run game — has to be the concept that Vader’s Raiders are on pace to win 129 games this season, Soriano being named the league MVP, Roger Clemens winning his 300th game at Fenway Park in May, and you-know-what happening in the Bronx in late October.

Fasten your seat belts.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com