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Major League Baseball’s midterm report
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Can a team with a .332 home batting average overcome its 21st-ranked pitching staff to win the World Series? Can a team with the league leader in batting average, runs, hits, doubles, RBIs, and slugging percentage offset its staff’s 4.60 team ERA? Will Roger Clemens really retire if he wins 20 games again and retains his strikeout crown? Will Fox Sports have a conniption fit if Seattle and Montreal reach the Fall Classic?

We’re at the halfway point of the 2003 baseball season, and while a number of trends have been set, there are plenty more questions to be answered before Bud Selig can hand over the glittering trophy to the world champion this October. Some of the teams are solidly in the driver’s seat, some are hanging on to the back bumper, and some already have the season in the rear-view mirror, with all hope lost even with 80 games to go.

Let’s take a look at how the respective division and pennant races are shaping up as we head into the Fourth of July weekend.

AL East: All it took was six Houston Astros pitchers to no-hit the New York Yankees on their hallowed home turf to turn around the pinstripers’ lackluster season. Since that June 11th night, the Bronx Bombers have won 15 of 17, including seven straight heading into the week, to establish a three-and-a-half game lead over the Red Sox. The once red-hot Blue Jays have now fallen five and a half back after dropping consecutive home series to the Orioles and Expos. Baltimore, which at one point was surprisingly flirting around the .500 level, is now nine games below that mark and a distant 15 games behind New York, while the youthful and talent-challenged Devil Rays have won just 26 of 80 and are nearly 25 games back. The Yanks are now playing as well as everyone expected them to, although components of their recent winning streak have been at the expense of teams like the Devil Rays and Mets (six games each). Once Bernie Williams gets back, the team will be that much stronger, although the age of its starting rotation and the quality of its bullpen remain serious question marks for a squad that defines success in championship terms. The Red Sox’ recent success has also been against the likes of the also-rans (Detroit, Florida), although they had decent performances against the likes of the Astros and White Sox as well (let’s not mention their visit to Philadelphia). Boston scored 45 runs in its weekend series against the Marlins, and while the Fish could not be remotely labeled as a quality team, they came into the series with the eighth-best pitching staff in the NL before collecting a 16.20 team ERA in the three games at Fenway. The Sox’ upcoming road trip — three in Tampa, four in the Bronx, three at Skydome, and three in Detroit heading into the All-Star break — will be critical to the team’s second-half hopes. Right now Boston leads the majors in hitting (a ridiculous .300), its home .332 average is 25 points ahead of the next best offense in baseball (St. Louis), and it leads the AL wild-card race by a game over Oakland. Toronto’s inherent weakness (pitching) has come to light during its recent mini-slump, but if they’re not a factor the rest of the way, then they definitely will be in the coming years.

AL Central: The two teams atop the division are both surprises in their own way. Minnesota was expected to be there, but with a heck of a lot better record than 43-37. Meanwhile, Kansas City (42-36) continues to amaze, as the team with the $40 million payroll has hung right in there despite blowing most of the momentum of its 17-5 start. The Twins’ pitching and inherent talent should ultimately prevail in this division, but their mediocre play has allowed even the likes of the underachieving but pitching-strong White Sox (39-42) to believe they still have a shot at the division crown. Cleveland (32-47) and Detroit — 18-61 and perhaps ready to join the pantheon of the worst teams ever — are already looking to the future, even though that future is as bleak as the current landscape. Right now, though, it appears that no wild-card contender will come out of this division, but if the Tony Pena–led Royals can continue to play over their heads into September, they could capture the Feel-Good Story of the Summer Award over the 2002 winner — the Twins. The White Sox? If they fade in the coming weeks, their top pitchers (Bartolo Colon, Tom Gordon, Mark Buehrle) could be on the trading block come end of July, which would seal their fate for 2003.

AL West: Let’s come right out and say it: right now the Seattle Mariners are the cream of the crop not only in this division, but in the American League. How they managed to lose four of six to the NL’s worst team, San Diego, in the past 10 days is a nagging question, but the fact is that with the league’s top pitching staff (3.58 ERA) and fourth-best offense (.277), the M’s can consistently beat you in innumerable ways. Ichiro Suzuki is batting .344, Bret Boone has 22 home runs, and the starting rotation has collected 43 of the team’s 52 victories. They’re aging, but solid, and if not for the difficulty of facing their division mates on a regular basis, they’d be cruising to a pennant. Oakland, as expected, is hanging right in there, although they’re lucky that their .259 team batting average is offset by the league’s second-best pitching staff. Still, the A’s are six back of Seattle and right in the thick of the wild-card race, which is more than one can say for defending champion Anaheim, which is just a game over .500 and is struggling to rekindle the magic that dominated its title run last season. Injuries have played a key role in the Angels’ struggles, but a weekend sweep of the offense-challenged Dodgers could be the spark to get the Halos back on track. Rounding out this tough division is Texas, but since they’re 21 games back and any hope long gone, let’s proceed to the Senior Circuit.

NL East: With 51 wins and a six-and-a-half-game lead on the Phillies, one would think that the Braves are again doing it with pitching. You’d be wrong, at least on the surface. The Braves’ staff ERA is over four, and ranks just seventh in the NL, while their offense is carrying the day, as the second-ranked hitting team boasts eight position players batting .290 or better, with Gary Sheffield tearing up the league at a .327 clip. The Phillies are 10 games over .500, as they should be with their revamped roster and second-rated pitching staff. Still, Philadelphia is only hitting .252 as a team, and that will have to improve if the Phils are to challenge the Braves for the Eastern crown. Right now, though, Philly is in a virtual tie for the wild-card lead with Montreal, and that could continue throughout the summer. The Expos, with a 45-36 record, are solidly in contention, although I still believe the scenario that has them playing 21 of their last 26 games this year either on the road or at "home" in Puerto Rico will ultimately wear them down. Florida’s a game under .500, which should be deemed a success, while the Mets — losers of six straight to their cross-town rivals in the past 10 days — are 34-46 and headed for an off-season roster makeover. Can you blame them?

• NL Central: A dandy race going on here, as the Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros have all taken turns holding the division lead. Six games over .500 will put you atop the NL Central, and even a 38-42 record (Cincinnati’s) leaves you just five back. Only Pittsburgh and Milwaukee can be written off at this point in the season, while the balance of the division race will no doubt be fought right through the end of September. The Cards have offense but little pitching; the Cubs have a lot of pitching but mediocre hitting; and the Astros have pretty good pitching and hitting, with neither spectacular. The Cubs will certainly be the sentimental choice, but I suspect that the mercurial season being turned in by St. Louis’s Albert Pujols, who is currently atop the batting race and also leads in runs (74), doubles (29), hits (117), RBIs (72), and slugging percentage (.719) — while adding 23 home runs to add spice to his triple-crown bid — will prove to be the difference for the Redbirds.

• NL West: Perhaps heading toward another National League pennant are the West-leading Giants, who at 48-32 are three games up on the pitching-rich Dodgers. The 2002 NL champs felt the need to revamp their line-up despite their success last season, and it’s paid off in spades, as the team’s sixth in both pitching and hitting despite losing to free agency several key components of last year’s team. Surprisingly, it’s the old dudes who are getting the job done by the Bay, as 31-year-old Ray Durham (.321), 42-year-old Andres Galarraga (.319), 36-year-old Marquis Grissom (.305), and 37-year-old Benito Santiago (.293) are helping graybeard Barry Bonds (.304 and 22 HRs as he prepares to blow out 38 candles in July) keep Pac Bell packed and rocking this summer. The Dodgers are holding steady on the arms of their top-ranked pitching staff, but their .245 team batting average is downright embarrassing, and if oft-injured 38-year-old righty Kevin Brown (10-3, 2.24) goes down again, LA is toast on the coast. Arizona is eagerly awaiting the return of its twin aces, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, but has managed to get right back in the race at 44-36 on the wave of an 11-game winning streak. Once counted out after the duo went down to injury, the Diamondbacks are just a game back in the wild-card race in anticipation of Johnson returning in a couple of weeks, while Schilling may be ready a couple of weeks later. Colorado continues to play .500 ball, but that won’t be good enough to contend in this division, and San Diego, as mentioned earlier, is pretty damn gruesome — most likely headed for a 100-loss season.

How the races are shaping up: if things continue in the same manner as they’ve unfolded in the previous weeks and months, the Yanks should take their sixth straight division crown, with Minnesota and Seattle taking the other two races. In the wild-card showdown, expect Boston and Oakland to again fight it out, with the Sox having the edge based on their favorable September schedule, their overwhelming offensive firepower, and their pitching situation starting to work itself out. If that scenario holds, Seattle and Boston would meet in the first round of the playoffs, as would New York and Minnesota.

In the West, Atlanta and San Francisco seem in good shape to defend their division titles, with St. Louis edging out Chicago in the Central. If the D-Backs’ aces can return true to form, Arizona could take the wild-card berth and draw Atlanta in the first round. St. Louis and the Giants would tangle in the other NL match-up.

Lots of hardball yet to be played, and Joe Torre still might not make it until August, but either way, there’s plenty of fireworks ready to ignite in the months ahead.

Have a great Fourth.

Sporting Eye will return on Monday, July 7th at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com

 

Issue Date: June 30, 2003
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2003 |2002

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