E-Mail This Article to a Friend The NFL’s Week 13: Playoff contenders hit the home stretch BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Well, even though Boston still can’t seem to let baseball go, the NFL season has reached the three-quarter pole and is heading for home. Back in September when Red Sox fans were still trying to figure out how the Sox would defend their inevitable 2003 World Series championship, 32 gridiron squads held out hope that come February, they would be in position to snatch the silver Lombardi Trophy out of Commissioner Paul Tagliabue’s sweaty hands. Thirty-two teams will still be showing up to play this upcoming weekend, but only a handful realistically have the same outlook or plans for February 1 in Houston.

Intentionally or not, the schedule-makers have pitted several long-time rivals head-to-head in this weekend’s action, and the results could be crucial. Traditional foes like Miami–New England, Chicago–Green Bay, Oakland-Pittsburgh, Washington–NY Giants, Cincinnati-Baltimore (because the Ravens are the former Cleveland Browns franchise), Dallas-Philadelphia, NY Jets–Buffalo, and Kansas City–Denver all have plenty riding on the outcomes of this weekend’s tilts. Changing metaphors now, all 32 horses are turning the quarter and heading for home, with just a quarter-mile to go in pro football’s equivalent of the Kentucky Derby. Let’s separate the thoroughbreds from the nags, the contendahs from the also-rans.

AFC East. Pretty much a two-horse race right now, and it could be settled — yep, in only Week 13 — this Sunday in the gloaming at Foxborough. Miami staved off the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune by socking it to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, thereby saving Dave Wannstedt’s job (for now) and lifting the Fish to an 8-4 record. After back-to-back losses to the Colts and Titans last month, the Dolphins managed to sneak by Baltimore (in OT) and Washington (by a point) to remain in contention. Should they lose in their traditional cold-weather fashion this Sunday, they will be able to compete only for a wild-card bid, and the Patriots will have clinched the division and a playoff berth. With that victory, an 11-2 New England team would be on the fast track to a first-round bye, since bottom-feeders Jacksonville and Buffalo still come to town later this month, and 12 or 13 wins should guarantee one of the conference’s top two spots. Buffalo and the Jets can only play spoiler at this point, but could very likely have a say in who goes to the post-season and who switches focus to the BCS Bowl picture.

AFC South. Tennessee and Indianapolis have not only both lost to the high-flying Patriots, but also play each other this weekend in Nashville, so one of these two 9-3 teams will be relegated to probable wild-card status. The Titans really hurt their cause by losing to the 4-7 Jets on Monday night, and they still have a date with the Buccaneers on their ledger. Both the Titans and Colts are pretty beat-up teams. Without the home-field advantage, both could be exposed and eliminated early on, so the winner of Sunday’s match-up is significant. Should Indy pull it out, only a Sunday-nighter against Denver two weeks hence looms as a roadblock, but the Colts’ home loss to the Pats this past Sunday probably drops them — and most likely Tennessee as well — to a first-round wild-card contest no matter what happens. Jacksonville (3-9) is obviously out of contention, but it should be noted that its last four games have seen the Jags upset Indy, lose by only seven at Tennessee, lose by a field goal at the surging Jets, and stun the defending champ Buccaneers. Houston has to be happy with its second season, but its 5-7 record could be tarnished by virtue of the Texans’ incredibly brutal finishing kick: Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Indy.

AFC North. The Bengals’ resurgence is the story of this division, but otherwise its occupants should be downright embarrassed. The AFC North’s two playoff representatives last winter are both 4-8, as both the Browns and Steelers are shadows of the teams that headed into this season with such unbridled optimism. Meanwhile, the Ravens are hanging around at 7-5 — in most divisions that would get you third place — and have the easier schedule the rest of the way (Oakland, Cleveland, Pittsburgh). That’s assuming, though, that they can hold off the surprising Bengals at home this weekend, and that’s hardly a given. Folks expected Cincinnati to improve this season, but no one in his right mind would have anticipated seven wins out of the former Bungles. After the dust has settled in Baltimore this weekend, Marvin Lewis’s club meets the Niners, Rams, and Browns. If they even reach nine victories, it’ll be the most successful Bengals season since 1990. It would appear that only the division-winner here will make the post-season, and they’ll still get stuck with a first-round match-up — maybe even on the road. Still, I don’t think anyone out there cares to play Cincinnati right now, and who would have thought we’d be saying that three months ago?

AFC West. Kansas City set the tempo from the get-go this season, but now the Chiefs look beatable. In the past three weeks, KC beat Oakland at home by only a field goal, lost at Cincy, then looked remarkably mediocre in a 28-24 win over the 2-10 Chargers. Still, the Chiefs are what they are, and that’s 11-1, but upcoming road games against Denver and Minnesota loom. Kansas City is undoubtedly playoff-bound, though, and could clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs — which is noteworthy given the atmosphere at Arrowhead — if it beats Denver and take care of business against the other two lollipops on the schedule, Chicago and Detroit. I don’t think that Denver has the horses to reach the playoffs, since the 7-5 Broncs have been consistently inconsistent this season, and still have difficult games against KC, Indy, and Green Bay to close out yet another disappointing season under Mike Shanahan’s watch. Oakland? Bah. San Diego? The number-one overall pick in the draft looks to be theirs for the second time in three years.

NFC East. Philadelphia. Dallas. Together again, and this week’s shoot-out in Rocky’s hometown will most likely be settled in Philly’s favor, thereby giving the Eagles a playoff berth and redemption after its lackluster 0-2 start. Should the Eagles prevail this weekend, only a Monday-nighter in Miami poses a significant problem, and a first-round playoff bye looks more and more probable. The Cowpokes’ season has been nothing short of remarkable given the team’s three straight 5-11 seasons, but what kind of sick mind in the schedule-makers’ office gave the Tuna a stretch of New England, Carolina, Miami, and Philadelphia just when things were going well? Given the likelihood that divisional doormats Washington and the New York Giants will barely show up in their upcoming showdowns with the Cowboys, and that New Orleans is due to crash and burn any day now, Dallas has a real chance to make the playoffs. That being said, its stay there should be brief.

NFC South. It’s Carolina and everybody else. At 8-4, the Panthers have established a solid winning foundation for this season and the years to come; their appearance in the upcoming playoffs is well-deserved and represents the complete transformation of a franchise that just two years ago went 1-15. Still, since there’s no one else in this division worth talking about, let’s concentrate on Carolina and ask what’s transpired since its 5-0 start. That impressive jump out of the gate included three OT wins and three other wins by a field goal or less, and twice the team beat the champion Bucs. Now let’s look at the losses: falling to Dallas and Philadelphia in the last two weeks is nothing to be ashamed of, but 20-point losses at home to the Titans and a road loss at offensively challenged Houston are troubling. Luckily, Carolina finishes its season with a slate of patsies: at Atlanta, at Arizona, home with Detroit, and at the Giants. The Panthers will make the playoffs, but like Dallas, one shouldn’t expect too much thereafter.

NFC North. An embarrassment. No team in this division deserves to make the playoffs at this point, yet one — by rule — will. Let’s examine the suspects:

• Minnesota: started off 6-0, which is good. Lost five of their next six, including losses at San Diego and Oakland. Not so good.

• Green Bay: the definition of mediocre at 6-6, despite wins over Seattle, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. The Packers are frauds because of losses to Arizona and Detroit, and only a creampuff schedule of the Bears, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos gives the cheeseheads hope of a post-season return. As if they deserve it.

• Chicago (5-7): lost by six TDs in San Fran on opening day, and has improved a little bit since. But not much.

• Detroit (4-8): on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions foiled the hopes of football-pool participants from coast to coast, but they can’t escape the specter of 22 straight road losses. So let’s leave it at that.

NFC West. A coupla decent teams here, as the 9-3 Rams have ridden the inconsistent arm of Marc Bulger to the top of the division. Yet if you look at St. Louis’s schedule thus far this season, you’ll see that it has yet to play any formidable foes, and the Rams’ play on the road has been downright so-so. They have played just three teams all season that are currently over .500 (Seattle, Baltimore, and Minnesota); two of those three are just 7-5, and the third one beat the Rams. Upcoming road games in Cleveland and Detroit will hardly pose a test, and home games against the Seahawks and Bengals will likely resolve the playoff seeding and little else. The Rams, frankly, have played a bunch of stiffs to this point, and that lack of serious competition could bonk them in the noggin once they meet up with a decent team — which may not happen until the NFC title game against the Eagles. Then we’ll see. Oh yeah, let’s not forget the Seahawks, who at 8-4 should easily clinch a wild-card berth. Seattle also hasn’t many tough games this season, with only the Rams, Bengals, and Ravens serving as "competition" in 12 games thus far — and the Hawks lost two of those three "elite" match-ups.

So do you see what I see? The NFC has a bunch of chumps in it, while the AFC could legitimately send any of four or five teams to the Super Bowl and have a damn good shot of winning it. The NFC? Philadelphia maybe, Carolina perhaps, and maaaaaybe a Rams team that struggles on the road and hasn’t played anybody of consequence yet. Put up any of those three teams right now against the Titans, Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, or Chiefs, and they’ll probably get hammered. You think not? Here’s some proof for ya: New England 31, Philadelphia 10; Miami 40, Dallas 21; Indianapolis 55, New Orleans 21; Tennessee 37, Carolina 17. They all happened. It could happen again. Soon.

Predicted AFC playoff berths: KC and New England get the byes; Indy, Baltimore, Cincy, and Miami duke it out in the first round.

Predicted NFC playoff berths (hold your nose): Philadelphia and St. Louis get the byes; Carolina, Green Bay, Seattle, and Dallas stink up FOX’s TV playoff coverage.

The dirt starts being kicked up in earnest this weekend.

Down the stretch they come.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com