E-Mail This Article to a Friend Seeing where the darts landed in September’s NFL preview BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Making sports predictions is a funny thing. Nearly every sportswriter makes ’em, but few if anyone remembers them when the season is over. Perhaps it’s a case of the forecasts not working out so well; on the flip side, no scribe wants to blow his own horn and admit post-season, "Hey, look at how many of my predictions came out right!" After all, Boston Globe sportsmeisters Ron Borges, Nick Cafardo, and Dan Shaughnessy can take a smidgen of pride in that they all picked the New England Patriots to finish 10-6; Bob Ryan can beam even brighter, seeing as how he saw the Pats finishing 11-5 and reigning as AFC East champs. Keeping his prognostications to himself is beat writer Michael Smith, who justified his 8-8 prediction by stating, "Can’t run. Can’t stop run. No playoff run." (Even worse, Smith’s projected Super Bowl match-up had Miami upending Tampa Bay.)

Still, why make predictions if you’re not going to come back later and review them? It’s one way to test your competence. That’s been the "Sporting Eye" credo, and the reason why we make it a point to go back and analyze our bull’s-eyes as well as the bounces off the side walls.

Here’s how our picks played out:

AFC East: Our pre-season prediction: New England 10-6, Miami 10-6, Buffalo 9-7, New York 4-12. Actual final standings: New England 14-2, Miami 10-6; Buffalo 6-10, New York 6-10. It’s hard to imagine anyone who could have seen the Patriots’ remarkable season unfold, although a tip o’ the cap must be extended to the Boston Herald’s Michael Felger, who on an early-September Sunday-night sports show, said, "If things fall into place, I could see this team winning 13, 14 games this season." Felger and even his doubters must have been prepared to change their tune after the 31-0 season-opening debacle in Buffalo, followed three weeks later by another mystifying loss at Washington. Yet a 12-game win streak has transformed the Patriots into destiny’s darlings, and the team by all indications is the odds-on favorite to capture its second Super Bowl in three seasons — a remarkable feat in this age of parity and salary caps. Miami faded in the cold as expected, Buffalo completely fell apart under the guidance of Drew Bledsoe, and the Jets dug themselves into too deep of a hole in Chad Pennington’s absence to contend for the division crown.

AFC South: Our pre-season prediction: Tennessee 11-5, Indianapolis 9-7, Jacksonville 5-11, Houston 4-12. Actual final standings: Indianapolis 12-4, Tennessee 12-4, Jacksonville 5-11, Houston 5-11. Indy had a darn good season, particularly with its record-setting offense led by MVP candidate Peyton Manning. Whether it can shake off late-season losses to New England and Denver will determine whether the team can actually chalk up its first playoff victory ever. Tennessee’s season was pretty much as predicted, although its defense wasn’t nearly as ferocious as it’s been in past seasons. QB Steve McNair’s health will determine the Titans’ longevity in the post-season, though it should be noted that it doesn’t seem fair that a 12-4 team has to play a first-round road game at a team that finished 10-6 and clinched a playoff berth in the final weekend. Beware Jacksonville and Houston next year, as both made steady improvements throughout this season.

AFC South: Our pre-season prediction: Baltimore 11-5, Pittsburgh 10-6, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 5-11. Actual final standings: Baltimore 10-6, Cincinnati 8-8, Pittsburgh 6-10, Cleveland 5-11. Cincinnati’s rebound back into NFL legitimacy was quicker than expected, as the team not only won eight games but contended for a playoff berth right up until the final weekend. Pittsburgh followed up its 2002 playoff season with a dismal campaign, and Cleveland, beset with injuries and suspensions to its offensive stars, also has nowhere to go but up in the coming seasons. Baltimore not surprisingly won the division primarily on defense, but the team’s hopes of a second Super Bowl berth in four seasons rests on a third-string QB, and said quarterback would have to decipher a Bill Belichick–designed defense in Foxborough just to get to the AFC title game. Lotsa luck, Anthony Wright.

AFC West: Our pre-season prediction: Kansas City 10-6, Oakland 10-6, Denver 7-9, San Diego 5-9. Actual final standings: Kansas City 13-3, Denver 10-6, Oakland 4-12, San Diego 4-12. No one is surprised that KC continued to blossom under former Rams coach Dick Vermeil, nor is anyone taken aback by the Chargers’ continued ineptitude. What was startling were the performances of the division’s other two teams, Oakland and Denver. Oakland, as you may recall, was in the Super Bowl last year and was a tuck-rule call away from the AFC Championship game the year before that. Like their Super Bowl counterparts, the Raiders completely disintegrated this past season under a coach once regarded as a tactical genius, and now there are calls for Bill Callahan’s head by the mutinous members of the Silver and Black. The Broncos, meanwhile, put together a solid season in spite of significant mid-season injuries, and former Cardinals quarterback Jake Plummer proved himself to be, in the right surroundings, a solid signal-caller. Denver has gotten hot at the right time, and is currently fielding the best team since John Elway slung it in back-to-back Super Bowls in the late ’90s. Still, the Broncos will need a five-game winning streak all on the road just to make it to Houston in February.

Our playoff-berth predictions: Division winners New England, Baltimore, Tennessee, and KC; wild cards Pittsburgh and Oakland. Actual playoff teams: Division winners New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and KC; wild cards Tennessee and Denver.

NFC East: Our pre-season prediction: Philadelphia 10-6; New York 9-7; Washington 6-10; Dallas 4-12. Actual final standings: Philadelphia 12-4, Dallas 10-6; Washington 5-11; New York 4-12. Flip-flop the Cowboys and Giants and we almost had this one nailed, but Bill Parcells took a team that finished 5-11 three straight seasons and turned it around immediately, and the Giants floundered and eventually quit en route to their worst season in ages — a campaign that cost Jim Fassel his job just one year after a controversial playoff loss. Philly shook off an 0-2 start to win 12 of its last 14, and with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Eagles could be headed for their third straight NFC title game.

NFC South: Our pre-season prediction: Tampa Bay 11-5, Atlanta 10-6, Carolina 8-8; New Orleans 8-8. Actual final standings: Carolina 11-5, New Orleans 8-8, Tampa Bay 7-9, Atlanta 5-11. Back then we called the Panthers a "sleeper team" and "probably just a year away now from being a playoff contender." Well, two years removed from a 1-15 season, they are a playoff contender (although in between their 5-0 start and their 3-0 finish was a mediocre 3-5 stretch, and the season’s final three victories were captured at the expense of the lowly Cardinals, Lions, and Giants). Atlanta suffered significantly from the slow-healing leg injury of Michael Vick, and the Falcons were buried deep in the standings by the time the mercurial QB returned in week 13. New Orleans had some highlight-reel moments this season, but the team still came up short at playoff time; meanwhile, the reigning Super Bowl champs proved to a dismal disappointment, as the team given a legitimate shot at repeating never got on track and couldn’t bounce back from several early-season late-game defeats.

NFC North: Our pre-season prediction: Green Bay 10-6; Minnesota 8-8; Detroit 5-11; Chicago 3-13. Actual final standings: Green Bay 10-6, Minnesota 9-7, Chicago 7-9, Detroit 5-11. The Packers did just enough to win the division, but as of 7 p.m. Sunday night the team was in danger of missing the playoffs altogether before the Vikings self-destructed in Tempe. The Vikings seemingly had at least a playoff berth sewed up when they roared out to a 6-0 start, but they lost seven of their next nine, including defeats to Chicago, San Diego, Arizona, Oakland, and the Giants, thereby sealing the team’s now-annual fate. Chicago’s gloomy season cost coach Dick Jauron his job on Monday, while Detroit’s continued futility — including extending its road losing streak to a mind-boggling 24 — resulted in only a questionable vote of confidence for GM Matt Millen, which should guarantee a couple more seasons of singin’ the blues in Motown.

NFC West: Our pre-season prediction: St. Louis 10-6; San Francisco 8-8; Seattle 8-8; Arizona 3-13. Actual final standings: St. Louis 12-4; Seattle 10-6; San Francisco 7-9; Arizona 4-12. I liked the chances of a Super Bowl 2001 rematch in the upcoming playoffs until the Rams squandered their home-field advantage by losing to the putrid Lions on Sunday. Now St. Louis, which is a so-so 4-4 on the road this season, may have to pin its aspirations on winning a game in frigid Philadelphia, which is no certainty given the team’s questionable QB situation and its perceived lack of coaching smarts. Seattle’s back in the playoffs for the first time in four years, but frankly, it shouldn’t have taken head coach Mike Holmgren this long to improve the team. The 49ers went from playoff team to regular-season bust this season, and Arizona — despite its stunning victory over Minnesota on Sunday — remains one of professional sports’ most embarrassing franchises.

Our playoff-berth predictions: Division winners Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and St. Louis; wild cards Atlanta and New York. Actual playoff teams: Division winners Philadelphia, Carolina, Green Bay, and St. Louis; wild cards Dallas and Seattle.

On to 2004!

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com