E-Mail This Article to a Friend Zeroing in on a Super Bowl prediction BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Two things have never happened in the previous 37 Super Bowls: there has never been a shutout, and the game has never gone to sudden-death overtime. I think one of those things will happen this year.

Why I am going out on a limb again this year to pick a Super Bowl champion is probably mystifying to my loyal readers. Those who are familiar with my history in predicting this game’s (or frankly, any game’s) outcome probably use my prognostication to determine which team not to bet on. Still, at times my hunches come to fruition, and I believe this year, paired with logical breakdowns and analysis, I can reach a conclusion that is plausible and perhaps even correct.

Another reason to turn a jaded eye my way is perhaps the perception that I am biased, and that my provincialism will undoubtedly lead me toward the Patriots’ corner. After all, one might say, how many Panthers games have you seen this season? Of course you’re going to pick the Patriots; you’ve watched them all season long, and you’re probably caught up in all of the hoopla surrounding the team’s success and its 14-game win streak. There is something to be said for that, and even long-time followers and local writers covering New England’s remarkable season have had a difficult time remaining neutral in their angles on this story. Everyone’s been caught up in it, and it’s been unavoidable (at least since the folks over on Yawkey Way quieted down). It is what it is. Therefore, even though you may know in advance what my predictions will be, stick with it through to the finish, because you may pick up some tidbits you can actually use to convince others of where you stand.

I have nothing against the Carolina Panthers. In fact, I downright admire them and have great respect for the strides the franchise has made since it finished the 2001-’02 campaign with a 15-game losing streak, completing a season that would, one month later, see the Pats capture Super Bowl XXXVI. (Interesting that Carolina’s loss #15 that season was to the Patriots, and that a win by New England on Sunday would complete a 15-game win streak, at Carolina’s expense.) But there is a difference between being a feel-good story, or a Cinderella, and being a team of destiny. And though Carolina did come out of nowhere to emerge as the NFC champ, and saw a ridiculous 14 of their 16 games come down to the final minutes of play to determine a victor, it is difficult to imagine the Panthers shattering the hopes of the New England Patriots in Supe 38.

Why?

• The Sports Illustrated jinx. My only non-scientific analysis. Last October, SI published regional editions of its baseball championship-series issue, with the Cubs’ Kerry Wood on one cover and the Sox’ Pedro Martinez on the other. Both pitchers’ respective teams lost in game seven the following week. In week nine of the NFL season, the KC Chiefs graced the SI cover under the headline PERFECT. That Sunday, the Chiefs’ season-opening nine-game win streak was broken in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago, Donovan McNabb’s Eagles were on the cover, and sure enough, they lost to the Panthers that Sunday. Last week’s SI cover boys were — you guessed it — Carolina. In fact, the Patriots have not been on the magazine’s cover all season long in spite of their splendid season, except — except — for the week-one NFL wrap-up, when Buffalo’s Sam Adams was on the cover rumbling toward a TD in the Bills’ 31-0 thrashing of the Pats. I know, one can’t use a magazine cover or a perceived curse as a logical basis of scrutiny, but this is but one of many factors working against Charlotte’s Cats.

• Strength of schedule. Here is who Carolina faced during the regular season en route to their 11-5 record: Jacksonville (5-11), Tampa Bay twice (7-9), Atlanta twice (5-11), New Orleans twice (8-8), Indy (12-4), Tennessee (12-4), Houston (5-11), Washington (5-11), Dallas (10-6), Philadelphia (12-4), Arizona (4-12), and Detroit (5-11). Of those four teams that finished with winning records, the Panthers lost three contests (including a 20-point home loss to the Titans), and also fell to Houston and Atlanta along the way. Combine that cushy schedule with a sub-par division where no other team finished above .500 and you have a playoff team — albeit one that admittedly played very well once it got there. Still, beating the offensively challenged Cowboys at home was not that great a task, and the overconfident Rams practically gave the game away to Carolina in their second-round match-up. In the conference final, the Panther defense rose to the occasion, but to be honest, the Eagles weren’t that great to begin with, and were lucky to have beaten Green Bay the week before.

Now let’s look at the Patriots’ regular-season schedule: Buffalo twice (6-10), Philly (12-4), the Jets twice (6-10), Washington (5-11), Tennessee (12-4), the Giants (4-12), Miami twice (10-6), Cleveland (5-11), Denver (10-6), Dallas (10-6), Houston (5-11), Indianapolis (12-4), and Jacksonville (5-11). Not only did New England play a tougher season schedule, but their only losses were to Buffalo in the aforementioned season opener, and a three-point loss at Washington in week four. Think about who the Pats beat during the streak, including the playoffs: Miami twice. Indy twice. Tennessee twice. Dallas. Denver at Denver. I’m convinced that either Tennessee or Indianapolis could have beaten Carolina in the Super Bowl, and each of those teams lost twice to the Patriots (and don’t forget that 37-17 Titan victory at Charlotte in week seven).

• Weariness factor. This cannot be discounted, since it plagued Denver, Tennessee, and Indy late in the season. Fatigue is not an issue for the Patriots, as they have not had a road game since December 20, and have had three off-weeks since early November. Carolina, meanwhile, finished with three of its last regular-season games on the road, then had to play wild-card weekend (at home), then consecutive road games in St. Louis and Philadelphia. Their week off prior to the upcoming Super Bowl (and Houston is admittedly another road trip) was its first off since week three — in mid September. Add to that the frenzy surrounding the majority of the players’ first visit to the Super Bowl, with all of its distractions and flurry of activity, and you’ve got one reasonably weary team going up against a well-rested squad that for the most part is intimately familiar with the hype and hysteria surrounding the event.

• Experience. Let’s talk a second more about that experience factor — of having been there before. Ty Law, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrable, Willie McGinest, and Ted Johnson, among others, will all be making their third appearance in the Super Bowl, while at least half of the existing Patriots roster will be making their second trip. Does anyone in his or her right mind expect the specter of this big game to faze Tom Brady? Hah. Meanwhile, the biggest game Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has been in is the championship game of NFL Europe, and that, my friends, is a wee-bit different from the grand stage that will be unveiled at Reliant Stadium this weekend. About the only one on the Carolina team who can talk with any amount of real background of what it’s like to play in a Super Bowl is tight end Jermaine Wiggins, who earned a ring with New England two years ago. Practically every other Panther — not surprisingly, given the fact that the team was 1-15 in 2001-’02 — is making his first visit ever to the NFL’s premier game, and that could result in some butterflies and mistakes early on.

• What each team will face. We alluded earlier to the strength of competition the two teams have faced thus far this season, but let’s explore it a little more. Have the Panthers faced any defense that is remotely as strong as the Patriots will pose on Sunday? Tampa Bay? Perhaps, but this year’s team was a shadow of the stifling unit that throttled the Raiders a year ago. Dallas? The Cowboys’ D did pose a formidable challenge to both the Panthers and Patriots this past season, but in the regular season, the Cowpokes scored 24 points against Carolina — and were shut out against New England. The Panthers didn’t see a solid defense from week 12 on, at least until they met Parcells’s crew again in the opening playoff round. Adjustments were made, the Cowboys were by then beat up, and the Panthers won impressively on their home turf, 29-10. New England faced tough defenses all season long, against Buffalo (twice), Tennessee (twice), Miami (twice), Cleveland, Denver, and, as mentioned, Dallas. That’s battle-tested. Now let’s flip over to the reverse match-ups: if Carolina’s defense is so dog-gone good, how in tarnation did they give up so many points to such offensively challenged teams, i.e., Jacksonville (23 points), New Orleans (20), Tampa Bay (24), Dallas (24), Philly (25), Arizona (17), and the Giants (24)? The Panthers held their opponents to single digits just twice this season, and those were in weeks two and three. The Patriots, meanwhile, collected three regular-season shutouts, and in two other games the opponent kicked only field goals.

• Team personalities. For a team that has been in two of the past three Super Bowls — and impressively, three of the past eight — the Patriots are a remarkably arrogance-free team. They embody the word "team," and there is still a marked absence of household names on the roster. What they do is play mistake-free football, and this machine-like style of play often contrasts with that of their competition, which oftentimes is forced into mistakes (paging Peyton Manning) or ill-timed penalties when facing the complicated Belichick/Crennel–designed defenses. Patriots fans have to think long and hard to recall the last time their team really fell apart mentally, and it is almost as if this squad is dominated by robots instead of human beings when you think about how error-free they’ve been during this year’s streak. We know Carolina is resilient and tough, but we also know that the team is somewhat one-dimensional on offense, and if the Panthers’ powerful running game gets shut down early (and this has been the Patriots’ forte), then Carolina will be forced into a passing game at which it is not as adept nor as well-prepared. And pity the poor Delhomme facing a Patriot defense for the first time, in a setting where the brain trust has had two full weeks to size him up. Yikes is right.

• History. The past tells us that teams that are dominant or on a roll usually continue that trend into the playoffs, and typically walk away with the crown. They have that aura about them throughout the season, and it almost seems predestined that they will ultimately be declared champions. Think about the 1972 Dolphins, the 49ers of the ’80s, the Chicago Bears of 1985-’86, the Cowboys of the early ’90s, the Packers of 1996-’97, and, to change sports for a second, the 1998 Yankees. Those teams coasted through the regular season and didn’t let up ... and why would they? They were built for the long haul, and they knew that their mission wouldn’t truly be accomplished until the final game was won. That is how it feels with the 2004 Patriots. Fourteen straight wins is testament enough to that sense of purpose, but how can one forget about all of the injuries the team overcame at the beginning of the season? Once so many defensive starters went down, hopes in New England for even making the playoffs became a pipe dream. Yet look at them now: on the precipice of another championship despite losing arguably their best player for the year in week two, and overcoming so many decimating injuries that third- and fourth-stringers were forced to fill the gaps — and in some cases still are. It is not the magical story that paved the way for the 2002 NFL crown, but it was damn near close in terms of against-all-odds drama.

I don’t see any way that the Patriots will lose Super Bowl XXXVIII, and I’ll even go so far as to say that this team could be the first to hold its opponent to single digits since the Raiders blew out the Redskins, 38-9 in 1984. I can see the Carolina running game becoming a non-factor, and I can see the Panthers struggling to move the ball. I see the Patriots having their own problems with the Carolina defense, but putting enough points on the board to make it comfortable.

For Patriots fans, it seems inevitable, and the team that’s seemingly forgotten how to lose is unlikely to start total recalling now. Not with so much riding on the outcome and the engine humming at maximum power. A happy ending seems preordained and logical. All we’ve got to go by is what we’ve seen, and if the past provides a benchmark, I’m unafraid to post the upcoming bold prognostication.

The closest thing to a Super Bowl goose egg we’ve ever seen was Super Bowl VI, when the Roger Staubach–led Cowboys swamped the Dolphins, 24-3. I think Sunday’s game will be a tad similar, with one difference.

Patriots 13, Panthers 0.

Enjoy the game.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com