E-Mail This Article to a Friend Doing the math two weeks before Opening Day BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

A YEAR AGO, we published a list of baseball teams we thought had little hope of contending for the eight coveted playoff berths. Of the 30 MLB teams, we ruled out 14 for various reasons. We tried not to be mean-spirited about it, but we wanted to prepare those teams and their fans for disappointment.

We were dead-on with about 11 of those teams, while a 12th (Kansas City) had a surprising season but ultimately faded in the end and finished third in the AL Central. What we are not proud of is that the remaining two teams not only contended for a playoff spot, but actually clinched them — and one ended up telling me where to put my prediction by winning themselves a world championship. So there.

For the record, the 12 we initially figured to be also-rans and were reasonably right about included Montreal (83-79), Cincinnati (69-93), Pittsburgh (75-87), Milwaukee (68-94), Colorado (74-88), San Diego (64-98), Tampa Bay (63-99), Cleveland (68-94), KC (83-79), Detroit (43-119), and Texas (71-91). The Marlins got off to a woeful start and seemed headed for another summer in the basement until they fired their coach in mid May and hired codger Jack McKeon. The team proceeded to compile the majors’ best second-half record, clinched the wild-card behind the Braves in the East, then stunned the Giants, Cubs, and Yankees in October en route to its second championship in seven seasons. The Cubs (also on our dubious list) were remarkably similar to the Marlins, as they got excellent pitching and responded well to a new manager (Dusty Baker) to advance all the way to the NLCS, where, like the Red Sox, they were five outs from the Fall Classic before collapsing in mind-blowing fashion. They won’t be on this year’s list, trust me.

But here are this year’s dubious 14, who can already book fall cruises because they’re unlikely to have any professional obligations standing in the way.

Tampa Bay — Second-year manager Lou Piniella guarantees the team that finished 63-99 last season won’t finish last. A couple of seasoned veterans have been brought on (Tino Martinez, Robert Fick), and Aubrey Huff and Rocco Baldelli will undoubtedly continue to blossom, but there’s three main things working against the Rays: a small payroll, inexperience, and the fact that they’re in the brutal AL East.

Baltimore — Yes, they’re vastly improved, but they too are in that tough division, and while the team’s offense has undoubtedly been upgraded, the pitching has not. Additions like Rafael Palmeiro, Miguel Tejada, and Javy Lopez make the O’s a formidable force with the sticks, but on the hill it’s Sidney Ponson and a whole bunch of no-names. The Birds under first-year manager Lee Mazzilli will undoubtedly field a very entertaining team for the first time in years — and it’s nice to see that the organization is spending money again — but the franchise still has a ways to go to return to its glory years, and right now, the Yanks, Sox, A’s, Mariners, and Angels have more overall talent.

Cleveland: This team continues to rebuild, and while they are a long way from contending right now, they have stockpiled a lot of young talent and may be a force to reckon with in a couple of years. In the meantime, only shortstop Omar Vizquel remains from the franchise that lost the 1997 World Series, and one would be hard-pressed to find any other familiar names on the upcoming roster. The Tribe will again be respectable, but will be unable to compete with the firepower and experience of the big-money juggernauts.

Detroit: What can you say about this team? That they have a wealth of experience — at losing? Why Pudge Rodriguez saw only dollar signs this off-season and went from the World Champs to these chumps is beyond comprehension, but yet there’s hope. A lot of positions have been upgraded, and there’s no doubt that the team will improve upon the kitty cats that nearly set a major-league record for single-season losses last season. Still, Detroit finished 25 games behind the fourth-place team in the AL Central and 47 games behind the division-winning Twins, so giant steps are not particularly anticipated this season. Baby steps — that’s a different story.

Texas — It’s hard to believe that any team could possibly improve after losing its best player (Alex Rodriguez) during the off-season, but the Rangers have a pretty good nucleus remaining, particularly among their infielders. With Alfonso Soriano coming over in the A-Rod deal, Texas now boasts solid contributors around the horn in third baseman Hank Blalock, shortstop Michael Young, Soriano, and first baseman Mark Teixeira. The pitching staff is still woefully inadequate, though, except for the bullpen, and the outfielders are pretty much greenhorns as well. They’ll be havin’ some heap o’ fun in the Texas dust this summer amid some high-scoring affairs, but sharing the division with the A’s, Mariners, and Angels signals the death knell for the Rangers’ playoff hopes this season.

New York Mets — Only three and a half years ago, the Mets were in the World Series. The last two seasons, they have occupied last place in the NL East. The Mets should escape the cellar, and have every right to exude confidence this season, but problems remain. Oh sure, they’ve managed to shed the deadwood that were Roberto Alomar and Mo Vaughn — two disastrous overpriced trade acquisitions — but their starting pitching is, how shall we say, most likely past its peak. You’ve got Al Leiter (38), Tom Glavine (38 next week), and Steve Trachsel (35) leading off, then two unproven hurlers following them. The middle of the infield is dynamite, with rookie shortstop Kazuo Matsui and converted second baseman Jose Reyes ready to work their magic, but oft-injured Cliff Floyd will patrol left, 35-year-old Mike Piazza will try his hand at first base, and a couple of former Yanks (Shane Spencer, Karim Garcia) will likely platoon in right.

Montreal — Two straight years of 83-79, but now Les Expos have lost their two best players — pitcher Javier Vazquez and slugger Vladimir Guerrero — and still have to play 22 "home" games in Puerto Rico. Rising star Tony Armas Jr., a former Sox prospect, was expected to pick up the slack in Vazquez’s absence, but he had to halt his throwing on Thursday because of shoulder problems. Sacre bleu!

Pittsburgh — Here’s all you need to know about this team of No-Stars. It hasn’t finished above .500 since 1992 — not surprisingly, Barry Bonds’s final season there — and it has collected four last-place finishes along the way. Then the Bucs traded their best player, two-time All-Star Brian Giles, to the Padres last season. Who have they picked up this off-season? Clubhouse cancer Raul Mondesi, that’s who. Good deal. Why do the fans of this once-proud franchise put up with this?

Cincinnati — The pitching staff is made up of no one you’ve heard of, and the Reds’ four best players are Sean Casey, Adam Dunn, Barry Larkin (who turns 40 next month), and perennial disabled-list dweller Ken Griffey Jr. — who, if you believe the rumors, may be headed back to Seattle sometime soon. The biggest news of the team’s off-season? Former owner Marge Schott bought the farm, at last.

Milwaukee — Simply put, the worst-run organization in the major leagues — and the baseball commissioner’s daughter is the chairman of the board! The Brew Crew has not had a winning season since 1992, and that’s unlikely to change this season. This is another organization that ought to be giving its fans more to cheer about than just a new stadium.

Four of the five NL West teams — It would seem that San Francisco has this division by default, now doesn’t it? Well, all of the other teams in the division have weaknesses that not only will prevent them from overtaking the two-time division-winning Giants, but keep them from a wild-card berth as well. First of all, you’ve got the Dodgers, who had the league’s best pitching stats last season, but the worst offense. So how do they address that? By getting rid of ace Kevin Brown, and picking up Bronx bomb Jeff Weaver instead, and then doing little to inject some punch into a lineup whose team average (.243) trailed only the woeful Tigers’ (.240). LA still has the game’s best closer in Eric Gagne, but what does it matter if the team consistently scores fewer than four runs a game? Meanwhile, one might find it strange to find the Diamondbacks on this list, but methinks the loss of Curt Schilling to the Red Sox will leave a large void on the 2001 champs. Arizona still has Randy Johnson, but the Big Unit is 40 and his best fireballing days are likely behind him, while the rest of the staff is questionable. Slugger Richie Sexson was picked up in an off-season deal with the Brewers, but the rest of the offense is aging (hello, Robbie Alomar) or green (half of the 40-man roster is 25 or younger). The Rockies? Another mystery team that’s finished fourth or fifth in the West for the last six seasons, and has finished as high as second only once in the team’s 11-year history. Can you even name a Rocky, other than Pike’s Peak? (And "The Squirrel" and "Balboa" don’t count.) Finally, we have the Padres. Brand-new ballpark this year, named after a dog-food distributor. Hmmm. Plenty of jokes at the ready there, but let’s just say that the fans are hungry for a winner, and may actually soon see one. There are some interesting transplants hanging their sombreros here (former Soxer Rod Beck, former Yanks David Wells and Sterling Hitchcock, former A’s outfielder Terrence Long, and former Pirate Brian Giles) and even some bona fide home-grown stars, including Phil Nevin, Trevor Hoffman, and Sean Burroughs. But there are also a lot of who-dat guys on the roster with names like Linebrink, Osuna, Otsuka, Oxspring, Szuminski, Tankersley, and even a Loretta (Mark). Still, they’re making an effort here in Southern California, and while the gravy train’s not pulling into the station yet, they’re at least barking up the right tree (sorry).

Fourteen teams out, 16 teams left to battle for baseball supremacy.

Some could very well win; others sure as hell better.

You know who you are.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com