E-Mail This Article to a Friend For better, for worse: Can the Red Sox repeat last season’s feats? BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

To reach baseball’s League Championship Series, lots of things need to go right. Pitchers have to come through, the offense needs to provide punch, the bench has to be effective, and injuries must be held to a minimum. All these factors lead to a successful or unsuccessful season, and the 2003 Boston Red Sox were able to reach the precipice of the World Series because so many of those things went right. If this year’s squad is to improve on last year’s finish, it will take more than improvements in personnel — an area that the team unquestionably addressed during this past off-season. Upgrades in starting pitching, the bullpen, and team depth will all factor in Boston’s chances of reaching the Fall Classic for the first time in 18 years, but that’s assuming the players who delivered last season can contribute at the same level or more so this season. If there are sharp downturns in production across the board, then the additions of Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke, and Pokey Reese will have marginal effects. For the Sox to get back to the mountaintop, their ascent team must meet or surpass expectations.

Fans of the Olde Towne Team will be delighted if the team can match the offensive firepower it launched last year, a line-up that set numerous team batting records and gave the pitching staff critical run support on a regular basis. As a result, the team boasted four starters with 11 victories or more, along with a bullpen that gradually improved over the course of the season — so much so that by the playoffs, the ’pen was virtually unhittable.

Twenty Soxers from 2003 return for another tour of duty; let’s analyze and predict whether their numbers will likely improve or decrease, compared to last season’s efforts.

• Johnny Damon (.273, 12 HR, 67 RBIs): The Chuck Manson look-alike got off to another slow start last season, but surged in the second half before an outfield collision put the kibosh on any significant ALCS contributions. He hasn’t been a .300 hitter since 2000, but if he can avoid early-season difficulties, the 30-year-old should be able to expand upon his .311 spring and become the effective leadoff hitter this team needs. Should he fail, then fellow speedster Reese will likely supplant him at the top of the order. Better/worse? Better.

• Nomar Garciaparra (.301, 28 HRs, 105 RBIs): Imagine the numbers Nomar could have put up if not for a dismal September/October. And while most major leaguers would kill for those stats, they were still down for the two-time AL batting champ. A lot of Garciaparra’s production will depend on how effectively he can return from the heel problem that has dogged him throughout spring training, and how well #5 deals with being a clean-up hitter behind Manny Ramirez (and he has flourished in the four spot in the past). Should he stay healthy, Nomar should return to form — maybe not batting-title form — and post big free-agent credentials for 2005. If he’s re-signed before then, all the better. Better/worse? Better.

Gabe Kapler (.291, 4, 23 in 68 games): The versatile veteran will get a shot to be a full-timer for the first month of the season or more, depending on the health of Trot Nixon. Kapler will probably end up anywhere between .270 and .310 depending on how much he plays, but he’s been a key acquisition since joining the squad last season. Now that he can add third-baseman defense to his repertoire, his value continues to escalate, and the 28-year-old will likely prove invaluable over the course of a full season. Better/worse? Better.

David McCarty (.407, 1, 6 in 16 games): We’re not even certain he’ll make the team, but he’s had a tremendous spring (.383, six HRs), and the outside possibility that he could serve as an additional lefty out of the bullpen in a 15-inning game makes him even more appealing. He’ll probably start with the team and remain at least until Nixon’s return from the DL, and by then he’ll have already had an opportunity to cement his value to the team. Better/worse? Better.

Kevin Millar (.276, 25, 96): The opposite of Damon, the gregarious first baseman/outfielder started last season red-hot but cooled off down the stretch, but adds a lot to the team in terms of offense, veteran leadership, and chemistry. Will he be the guy who hit .294 before the All-Star game, or the one who hit .251 thereafter? The team will be perfectly happy if he puts up the same overall numbers this season, preferably without the ups and downs. Better/worse? Same.

Doug Mirabelli (.258, 6, 18 in 32 games): Jason Varitek’s back-up is a solid veteran who last year caught knuckleballer Tim Wakefield almost exclusively, but this season new manager Terry Francona may not give Mirabelli absolute rights to Wake’s starts. That additional work could wear on Varitek after a while, but the Sox are lucky to have a reasonably productive guy like Mirabelli available should he be needed, and he came up with some big hits last season in a limited role. Better/worse? Same.

Bill Mueller (.326, 19, 85): The Sox hit the jackpot last season when it signed Mueller as a back-up at third base, because his offensive numbers proved to be so eye-popping that Shea Hillenbrand was traded to Arizona in May, giving Mueller full-time duty in the hot corner. He didn’t disappoint, and en route to his first .300 campaign since 1996, he managed to avoid his penchant for injuries and instead captured his first batting title. He’ll likely return to form (in the .290s) this season (and he’s struggled this spring with a .259 average and a tender elbow), but he won’t be expected to carry the team offensively, though he’s a terrific glove and clubhouse guy. Better/worse? Worse.

Trot Nixon (.306, 28, 87): The good news? Nixon eschewed free agency by signing a three-year, $19-million deal. The bad? He’s on the shelf until likely the middle of May with back problems. Nixon, who will turn 30 during the team’s opening weekend at Fenway, should continue to be the hard-nosed dirt-eating right fielder that Sox fans have come to adore, as long as his back trouble isn’t serious and he can return without restriction or hesitation. But that’s a big if. Better/worse? Same.

David Ortiz (.288, 31, 101): Another diamond in the rough picked up a year ago by Sox GM Theo Epstein, the Mo Vaughn clone was a huge contributor to last year’s team’s success. Can he be expected to duplicate that breakout season? Yes, as long as he too can avoid injury and handle his role as a platoon player or a DH, and that he’s not weary from playing the last two off-seasons down in the Caribbean Leagues. Better/worse? Perhaps a little worse.

Manny Ramirez (.325, 37, 104): Unencumbered by contract issues and seemingly opening up a lot more to the quote-hungry media, Ramirez contended for his second-straight batting title last season before finishing a point short. It’s safe to say that this hitting machine will continue to deliver. Better/worse? Same. Always.

Jason Varitek (.273, 25, 85): As mentioned above, a lot will depend on his workload, but given that it’s his free-agent year, and his offensive numbers are considered a bonus hitting our of the eight or nine spot, Varitek can be expected to remain the rock-solid backstop that has made him one of the team’s most valuable and respected components. Better/worse? Same.

Moving over to the pitching staff:

Bronson Arroyo (0-0, 2.08 ERA in six regular-season games): It would appear the sky’s the limit for the lanky 27-year-old, as the Pittsburgh Pirate cast-off proved his worth in several significant late-season and playoff relief appearances. With BK Kim on the shelf with shoulder woes for the first part of the season, Arroyo will get the chance to show his stuff as a starter, and if his solid spring is any indication, then Kim may, against his wishes, find himself back in the bullpen. Better/worse? Better.

Alan Embree (4-1, 4.25 ERA) and Mike Timlin (6-4, 3.55): These two "elder statesmen" (34 and 38, respectively) can be lumped together because their 2003 seasons were so similar, and in tandem they were lights-out in both of the team’s playoff rounds. Both were part of the bullpen committee that nearly sabotaged the season last spring, but the addition of Scott Williamson and Foulke stabilizes the ’pen situation for skipper Francona, who will have an embarrassment of reliever riches at his disposal compared to his prior situation in Philadelphia. Better/worse? Same.

Byung-Hyun Kim (8-5, 3.18): Depends on his injury, his post-recuperation role, and his attitude. Still, having the Korean submariner for a full season should provide needed depth and flexibility in both the rotation and bullpen. Better/worse? Same.

Derek Lowe (17-7, 4.47): Only Toronto’s Roy Halladay won more total games over the past two seasons than Lowe, and with agent Scott Boras pleading the potential free-agent’s case, D-Lowe should have more than enough reasons to expect big money. Lowe benefited from great run support last season, and should he end up in the surprising role of fourth starter, then he will often be matched with sub-par opposing pitchers. Are his 38 wins over the past two years a mirage or legit? He’ll get a chance to build on his résumé this season. Better/worse? Same.

Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22): Too many intangibles to really know at this point, given his free-agent situation, his arm health, and his psyche (given that second starter Schilling is also a legitimate ace). Better/worse? Same.

Ramiro Mendoza (3-5, 6.75): Another big what-if, given his health and his disappointing 2003. Better/worse? Likely the same, and if so, he probably won’t be around long.

Tim Wakefield (11-7, 4.09): Will the steady knuckleballer improve with Varitek occasionally behind the plate? We’ll see. Better/worse? Same.

Scott Williamson (0-1, 6.20): After enduring some family problems last season, Williamson came on strong and made a strong case for being the full-time closer by the time the playoffs came around. With Foulke’s arrival, he’s back as a set-up guy, but I think he’ll thrive in that role, providing the new closer with an occasional break and getting a whole season in Boston to show he’s a winner. Better/worse? Better.

Opening Day looms. Boston Red Sox, are you better? You bet.

On paper.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com