E-Mail This Article to a Friend The 2004 baseball preview BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Just so you know up-front, we won’t be previewing the entire Major League Baseball landscape in this column. Since the AL East, and the Yankees–Red Sox breakdown alone, warrant an entire preview column, we’ll save that forecast for Monday, and for now take a look at baseball’s other five divisions. We already put forth a prognostication of who wouldn’t be contending this season (covered here), so for a bit more on the have-nots, feel free to take a look there. Otherwise, here are our versions of how the division races will likely pan out.

NL East: Only a soothsayer with true vision could have envisaged the way last year’s race played out. Sure, sure, anyone could have picked the Braves to win the East, and they did by a whopping 10 games, but who could have foreseen the Marlins finishing second — and finishing 20 games above .500 — and thereby taking the wild card? And then . . . knocking off the division-champion Giants and Cubs? And the Yanks as well? Surreal. And this wasn’t like the ’97 team that pretty much stocked up on all-stars, won the Fall Classic, then let them all go; the ’03 team was young and star-crossed, and nobody could have predicted them closing the deal like they did. Good for them. But rarely does that kind of lightning strike twice, especially in consecutive years. That’s why I like Philadelphia instead. The Phils should have done a lot better than they did last year (87-76, 15 games back), but having explosive manager Larry Bowa steering the ship perhaps sabotaged their efforts down the stretch. This season, several factors should work in their favor: a new ballpark, clubhouse king Jim Thome settled in to his second season in the NL, a solid offense, and a terrific rotation (anchored by Kevin Millwood) and relief corps (upgraded with the addition of Astros closer Billy Wagner).

Most people are writing off Atlanta this season despite its nine straight division crowns, but the Tomahawks retained some solid pitching (particularly with closer extraordinaire John Smoltz) despite losing Greg Maddux, and have developed some home-grown talent to go with established hitters like Andruw and Chipper Jones. And don’t forget manager Bobby Cox’s steady leadership. Why should Florida fall to third? Because despite their pitching prowess, the Marlins won’t likely be as hungry again after their improbable title, and losing big bats Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Encarnacion, and Derrek Lee are significant, especially when combined with the bullpen exits of Braden Looper and closer Ugueth Urbina. As the Marlins struggle, I expect by June that Pro Player Stadium will again revert to its half-empty status.

It’ll be another lonely summer in Montreal, where the Expos will be playing 103 road games (22 in San Juan), and the team will certainly suffer from the losses of its best all-around player (Vladimir Guerrero) and its best pitcher (Javier Vazquez). Instead, the Expos got Yankee first baseman Nick Johnson, who’s unlikely to be pleased going from the Bronx to this situation, and Carl Everett, who will likely find something about these foreign-speaking "home" cities to complain about. Finally, there’s the New York Mets, whose two aces are both 38, and their new first baseman (former backstop Mike Piazza) is untested at the position. The Mets could escape the cellar for the first time in three seasons, but a lot of things would have to go right, and that’s been a foreign concept for this franchise for a while now. Right Mo?

NL Central: The fashionable pick is the Cubs in this wide-open and extremely competition division, but I’m going instead with Houston. A team that already won 87 games a year ago now has added proven winners Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens to a rotation already loaded for bear. Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Jeff Kent will provide the offensive firepower, and don’t forget that Jimy Williams still roams the dugout here, and he’s no slouch when it comes to game management. It’s tough to pick against the sentimental favorites in Chicago, but I have just enough questions about their rotation to hand them the wild-card spot instead. Should all the arms on the roster stay healthy, then I’d likely be willing to concede them the pennant right now, but Mark Prior is starting the season off on the disabled list, and Kerry Wood also has a lengthy history of arm trouble and has never won more than 14 games in a season. The Cubs did bring back Maddux, but he’ll turn 37 in a couple of weeks, and outfielders Moises Alou and Sammy Sosa are 37 and 35, respectively. Adding first baseman Derrek Lee is a great pick-up, but I’m not sure I trust LaTroy Hawkins or Kent Mercker out of the ’pen. Still, I think everyone except for the city’s South Siders will be rooting for the Cubs to return to their first World Series since 1945 (and can anyone remember the last time the Cubs were favored for the NL pennant?).

St. Louis for the first time since who-knows-when will be just another face in the crowd, but at least the Redbirds have a smidgen of hope, which is more than can be said for the remaining three jokers in the division: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee. For space considerations, we’ll suffice it to say that these three teams will probably make more news off the field than on. How, we’re not sure, but the teams the respective franchise will field are utterly forgettable, and by season’s end (or even mid-season) will be deemed irrelevant.

NL West: A lot of folks seem to think that the Diamondbacks will return to form this season and capture the division, but I’m not among them. In my mind, the NL West is still San Francisco’s to lose, despite the fact that there’s a cloud of suspicion hanging over Barry Bonds’s swelled head, and the cast of characters built around the nearly 40-year-old slugger is comparatively sub-par. Still, I like the Giants only because no one else in the division looks all that imposing. I think that Los Angeles will continue to pitch well but will continue to regularly experience a dearth of offense — at least until Nomar gets there next year; Arizona should get back on track only if Randy Johnson can return to his winning ways, but the roster is still littered with too many old fogies, and the departure of Curt Schilling to the Sox leaves the immortal Brandon Webb as the Snakes’ next best arm. San Diego could make some noise in this division, but not enough to contend, and Colorado will likely be one of the majors’ worst teams; for all East Coasters know or care, the Rockies could play the upcoming season in the Pakistani mountains and nobody would know the difference.

AL Central: Given the glamour in the AL East and West, this division is downright ugly in comparison. Truly, I believe in my heart that the second- and third-best teams in the East and West will be infinitely better than the AL Central champ. But somebody’s gotta represent the division in the playoffs, so let’s for now award that dubious crown to Minnesota, which has taken the Central the past two seasons with 90-win seasons. Veteran Brad Radke is the only recognizable name on the staff, and the team’s two best relievers from 2003 are playing elsewhere this year. Still, the line-up that won the division is still relatively intact, and only Kansas City or Chicago can be expected to challenge the Twins in this mediocre division. The Royals will always play over their heads as long as second-year manager Tony Peña is at the helm, but this small-market team with a small-market budget can only do so much with the roster it has. Other than Kevin Appier, KC’s pitching staff is so anonymous that they could all be members of the Witness Protection Program for all we know. The offense has been upgraded with the addition of much-traveled Juan Gonzalez, but the oft-injured slugger will likely spend more time on the DL then as DH. The Pale Hose have sluggers but little else, as their former ace, Bartolo Colon, now pitches in Disneyland’s shadow, and the remaining starters are unproven and also relative unknowns. Also in this division and already playing out the 162-game string are rebuilding Cleveland and Detroit, two teams which will likely improve, but that’s like saying the sub-.500 Celtics will benefit from qualifying for the upcoming NBA playoffs.

AL West: Another bitterly contested division, with any of three teams expected to capture the crown. And it’s important to realize that given the likelihood that the runner-up in the AL East will capture the wild card, the only chance these three elite squads have to qualify for the post-season is by winning the division. I believe that ultimately it will be Oakland that will show how the West was won, since the team’s superior pitching will again help the A’s rise above their re-jiggered but still run-of-the-mill offense. Mark Mulder, whose hip injury cut short his 2003 season and likely derailed the team’s pennant express, apparently hasn’t fully recovered, and if he cannot join fellow aces Barry Zito and Rich Harden on a full-time basis, that could open the door for the likes of Anaheim to sneak in and steal the division. The 2002 champs spent a lot of cash this off-season in order to return to the playoffs, and Colon, Guerrero, and pitcher Kelvim Escobar could also help the Halos snare the wild card should Boston or New York falter. Seattle will contend, but its roster is aging (starter Jamie Moyer and DH Edgar Martinez are both 41, infielders Bret Boone and John Olerud are 35, and closer Eddie Guardado is 33), and the offense is pretty much the same as it has been for years: good, not great. Finally, Texas is also in this division. The last time a team lost A-Rod to greener pastures, it won 116 games. Worked for Seattle; won’t work here. No way, no how.

Be sure to check in on the AL East forecast on Monday.

In the meantime, it’s time to play some ball.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com