E-Mail This Article to a Friend The 2004 AL East preview BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Batman versus Superman. Spider-Man versus the Green Hornet. The Hulk versus the Six-Million-Dollar Man. Speed Racer versus Racer X.

A lot of baseball will be played out all over the country this season, no doubt leading to lots of interesting divisional races. But for sheer drama, intrigue, and fascination, it will be difficult to imagine any division race more contentious than that in the AL East — particularly between its top-two components.

Perhaps we’re overstating the nature of this rivalry because of our provincialism, but the ramifications of the Yankees–Red Sox divisional tussle will in some ways be felt nationwide. Anyone who considers him- or herself a true baseball fan can’t help but be at least a little bit interested in who will win the AL East — and who will finish second. In the most likely scenario, the runner-up in the division will also take the wild card; in a perfect world, the stage would be set for a cataclysmic ALCS again featuring Boston’s Olde Towne Teame and the Bronx Bombers. The winner would advance to the World Series, perhaps to take on another bathed-in-history/infamy franchise, the Chicago Cubs. Or perhaps the Houston Astros, who would be appearing in the organization’s first World Series while boasting two former Yankees on the hill. The subplots in any of those match-ups would be mesmerizing.

But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here. A Sox-Yanks playoff is by no means preordained; nor has either squad already clinched a post-season spot. But for argument’s sake, and in all likelihood, one or both of these teams will reach the post-season, for a pennant series that would leave fans of the game frothing at the mouth.

But let’s get through the regular season first.

Both teams enter the season with dramatic new looks, particularly the Pinstripers. In losing three-fifths of their rotation to free agency or attrition, the Yankees have retooled not only their starting five, but also their bullpen, which was their Achilles’ heel last season. In addition, New York continued to break the bank to secure some of the game’s most attractive free agents, solidifying one of baseball’s all-time great line-ups with the addition of Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, and Kenny Lofton, and trading for two of the game’s premier pitchers as well. The upgrades pushed the Yanks’ payroll to over $180 million, an all-time sports high, but the Red Sox were similarly active in the off-season.

After coming as close as it did last season, Boston tinkered slightly, addressing its needs for starting pitching with the addition of former Sox farmhand Curt Schilling, and its desire for a top-flight closer by signing the market’s most-prized bullpen commodity, Keith Foulke. The front office was unable to sign any of its soon-to-be free agents (other than Trot Nixon) to contract extensions, but the team is undoubtedly comfortable with the $122 million roster it has in place — at least for this season — and is confident it has upgraded enough to compete with, and perhaps surpass, its neighbors to the south.

So who will take the division? I go back and forth on this, but my gut feeling is that this will be a tight race throughout the season, with the two teams perhaps never more than five games apart in the standings. Nonetheless, if forced to choose, I’d have to give the slightest of edges to New York, and here’s why.

• The bullpen. Foulke, the cream of the crop of closers out there, was indeed a nice pick-up. But Sox fans remember him blowing a midsummer game in Oakland that could have given the A’s three out of four against Boston during a critical August series. He also coughed up a 4-3 Oakland advantage in game four of the ALDS — a lead that, if it held up, would have sent Oakland to the ALCS instead of Boston. Foulke did plenty of great things last year, and that’s why he was the AL saves leader, but he’s had a dreadful spring (ERA of 15). On the other hand, the Yankees still have Mariano Rivera, and he’s still the best there is. Moving into the set-up men, the Yanks’ two key free-agent additions, Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill, are 36 and 35, respectively, but the Sox’ best two table-setters, Mike Timlin (38) and Alan Embree (34), are also getting up there in years. Beyond those four, the Sox have a slight edge, but having Gordon and Quantrill — both former Soxers, by the way — is a huge improvement from New York’s situation last season.

• Karma. Chemistry-wise, I think Boston has an advantage here, because while the New Yorkers’ 2003 team was fine in that area, the additions of Kevin Brown, Sheffield, Lofton, and perhaps even A-Rod could stir up team harmony. Add to that the fact that the Yanks were decimated by injuries last year and yet still managed to take the division, while the Red Sox were relatively healthy all season long (not one regular missed any time on the disabled list) yet still finished second. If one believes that these things tend to even out over time, then it’s likely Boston’s turn to face the music health-wise, and the orchestra’s already tuned up with the news that Nomar Garciaparra, Nixon, and fifth starter Byung-Hyun Kim will start the season on the DL. New York is thus far injury-free, save for Jason Giambi’s sore knees. Finally, it remains to be seen whether the ominous specter of impending free agency changes the outlooks and performances of those key players whose contracts are up at the end of this season. Without extensions, their future beyond this season is cloudy. If negotiations truly are put off until season’s end, then the season-long dynamics will likely be affected.

• Match-ups. As far as the starting pitching goes, Boston most likely has the edge, particularly in its fourth and fifth starters, and the bullpen comparison was explored above. The Yankees are probably holding their breath regarding the long-term health of Brown, who has spent a considerable amount of time on the shelf in recent years. However, the Sox are doing the same regarding their ace, Martinez, who hasn’t gotten through a season scot-free in at least five years. Schilling’s presence is probably cancelled out by the Bombers’ addition of former Expo Javier Vazquez, unless the 27-year-old Puerto Rican adapts poorly to the New York stage.

While the pitching comparisons are negligible, the offense that the Empire Staters will unveil this year would seem to be relentless. Derek Jeter. Hideki Matsui. A-Rod. Giambi. Sheffield. Jorge Posada. Bernie Williams. Enrique Wilson (the only blip). Lofton. The Sox’ offense had a record-breaking season last year, but it lost second baseman Todd Walker, whose replacement, Pokey Reese, is a .250 career hitter, and it can’t necessarily count on third baseman Bill Mueller to replicate his batting-title heroics of 2003. The initial absences (and potential long-term loss) of Garciaparra and Nixon also hamper the team’s ability to match last season’s juggernaut.

Don’t get me wrong; the teams are very closely aligned, and they could do plenty of flip-flopping atop the standings as the season progresses. But one last thing tips the scales for the Pinstripers: come the trade deadline on July 31, which team will probably be more active in securing stretch-run talent to make up for its inherent deficiencies? The team whose wallet is limitless, or the one that is already paying beyond its means, is saddled with a huge debt, and plays in the majors’ smallest park?

What the AL East race will come down to, frankly, is injuries and chemistry, and it says here that New York will survive the former and make do with the latter.

Not to be forgotten are the other three residents of the division, all of which are vastly improved. Toronto has got its best dress on, ready to step in if either of the aforementioned bridesmaids falters during the 162-game ceremony. Slugger Carlos Delgado is in his contract year, so he’ll likely want to put up big numbers, but the rest of the line-up is littered with up-and-coming youngsters who may or may not be able to make significant contributions. Having the reigning Cy Young winner in Roy Halladay will cure a lot of ills, but 33-year-old Miguel Batista and 35-year-old Pat Hengten will need to surprise if the Blue Jays are to overcome their questionable offense. Still, payroll limitations are the only thing that will keep this team from being a contending force in the coming years.

With its payroll finally shed of Albert Belle’s mega-contract, Baltimore spent a lot of money this off-season on some big-name bats (Rafael Palmeiro, Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez). Too bad the Orioles’ rotation — after ace Sidney Ponson — is made of such who-dats as Kurt Ainsworth, Eric DuBose, Matt Riley, and Erik Bedard. First-year manager Lee Mazzilli will have a baptism of fire, and likely daydream about his team’s potential if only the O’s were in the AL Central.

If nothing else, Lou Piniella is a patient man, and his Tampa Bay team will continue to be pesky and exciting despite its meager $23 million payroll. Piniella promises the team won’t finish last, but unless the Orioles and their $53 million roster implode, the Devil Rays will be competitive but entertaining cellar-dwellers for the sixth time in their six-year history.

Final predictions: AL division winners: New York, Minnesota, Oakland. Wild card: Boston. (Sound familiar? It should; it was the same last year.) NL division winners: Philadelphia, Houston, San Francisco. Wild card: Chicago Cubs.

Pennant winners: Boston, Houston.

Welcome to the rematch of the 1986 NBA Finals, with an 86-year drought on the line this time, and the added intrigue of a Massachusetts-Texas presidential election happening a week after the series ends.

Plus Pedro-Roger III? Gulp.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com