E-Mail This Article to a Friend Neither here or there: The Red Sox gamble on their free-agent signings BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Now that the Red Sox’ regular season has begun, fans have put aside the question that hovered over the team’s spring-training festivities in Fort Myers: what are the Sox going to do about all of the guys who are unsigned beyond this season?

To die-hard fans, this is the pre-eminent issue of the season, one that casts a shadow over all the good that could come of this season. Yes, the team could win a World Series this year, but what about next? What kind of roster will be left if all of the potential free agents hightail it out of here?

When the calendar flipped to 2004 four and a half months ago, the team had five of its premier players signed only through this upcoming season, with a few more not-so-critical guys also facing their walk years. By the time the Red Sox started Grapefruit League action, only right fielder Trot Nixon had signed an extension, but the remaining four big-name guys — Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, and Derek Lowe — had seen nothing substantial develop contract-wise during the off-season. It was expected that at least one or perhaps two of those players would reach some kind of agreement during spring training, leaving the remaining gents to give the team one final audition over the course of the 2004 campaign.

Instead, while the team submitted offers to each of the quartet, none saw fit to re-sign under the terms proposed by Theo Epstein & Co. Varitek reportedly received a low-ball offer that he has barely even acknowledged; Martinez seemed to indicate that he and his agent were making progress — before discussions quietly ended weeks ago; Garciaparra is somewhat tight-lipped about the situation, but it appears that he is holding out for Jeter money ($16-17 million) and would prefer to resume bargaining after the season ends; and Lowe has said that management "has made it easy" for him to turn down its latest offer because the extension figure is less than what was offered just last season.

As a result, both the team and the players are now rolling the dice. The team is banking on the market changing, the players in question submitting sub-par seasons, compromises reached during the course of the season, or the acceptability of individuals’ departures due to fiscal responsibility or availability of adequate replacements. The players who have turned down the team’s offers must give top-flight performances this season. They must prove that they are not only worth it to the Red Sox — who will have an exclusive two-week window for negotiating with their own free agents once the World Series is complete — but to any other team that may want to bid for those players’ services in the open market thereafter.

Let’s take the players’ situations one at a time.

Martinez is certainly the most complex situation, since he has proven himself one of the top pitchers in Red Sox history and destined for the Hall of Fame. Still, his petulant act has worn thin among Sox brass and fans alike, confounding those who cannot understand why he continues to play the "no respect" card despite being the top-paid pitcher in baseball. His wizardry on the mound is indisputable, but his penchant for injury and controversy comes with the package, and while some feel he may have lost some miles on his fastball, he has shown in his first two outings that he can compete and win without his once-blazing heater. Sox fans wouldn’t miss the annual soap-opera drama that seemingly envelops Martinez each season, but should he leave via free agency, there’s one scenario the team’s backers could not accept under any circumstances: Pedro in pinstripes. George Steinbrenner more than anybody has the money to pay the Dominican fireballer’s price, but there’s one other thing to consider in the Bronx: Yankees fans don’t want him. After all that he’s put the Bombers through over the years — capped by October’s ALCS fiasco with Karim Garcia and Don Zimmer — there is no player more despised by Empire Staters than Pedro, and being forced to embrace him as one of their own is loathsome to the team’s backers. Theo and the trio need to sign Pedro during the course of the season, or he will likely be gone — somewhere — by Thanksgiving.

Garciaparra’s reluctance to open up to the media regarding his contract situation makes it difficult to gauge his true interest in staying. For Red Sox Nation, no player is as beloved as Nomah, but despite his off-season pleading (from his honeymoon, no less) that he wants to stay, his reluctance to accept the team’s long-term extension terms (likely $15 mil a year) shows he has bigger fish to fry come November. And even though he and new wife Mia Hamm reportedly bought a house on the Cape, it seems likely that, barring a breakthrough this summer, number five will be at the Dodgers’ compound in Vero Beach next spring. How Red Sox fans will treat him and Sox management should that come to pass is an intriguing one that most Boston denizens would not ever want to imagine.

Varitek is widely viewed as the team’s backbone, but if reports are true that the Sox’ offers to him have been below market value, then the club must believe that Triple-A backstop Kelly Shoppach will be ready to step in next season should Tek seek greener pastures. Shoppach, who just turned 24, was the Sox’ second-round pick out of Baylor three years ago, and his defensive prowess and patience at the plate have made him one of the prized possessions in the farm system. Whether he would be able to handle the top-flight pitching staff he would catch in Boston is a huge question, because Varitek is so well-trusted by the current rotation and would undoubtedly be missed. Still, by selecting controversial player agent Scott Boras as his representative, it appears that Tek is looking for a big score, which the team is unlikely to present at this time. Spring training would have been the time to get this deal done, and now that the season’s under way, it may be too late to get an extension inked.

Lowe is also represented by Boras, and that’s likely why the team’s latest offer was deemed unacceptable. D-Lowe and his agent are likely looking for a yearly contract in the neighborhood of $12 million, while the team is probably offering around 10, and it appears the Red Sox are taking a wait-and-see attitude to see if the tall right-hander can again approach 20 wins (as he has done the last two seasons). The stalemate here is obviously a question of perception: Lowe feels like he’s earned the credentials to make number-two-starter money (and he realistically could be the ace on many staffs), while the team is just not sure he’s the real thing just yet (and feel he benefited from terrific run support last season en route to his 17-win season). Boston cannot afford to lose both Lowe and Martinez from its rotation next season, so if D-Lowe puts up good numbers to start the season, this deal may get done before the All-Star break.

It’s also not too early to throw in a fifth member of this elite fraternity, since first baseman/DH David Ortiz — a bargain the last two seasons at $1.25 million and $4.587 million — will also be an unrestricted FA come November. Offensively, Ortiz has already won two of the team’s four victories with timely home runs, and as of Tuesday he led the squad in homers, runs, RBIs, and slugging. As a run-producer and big-game hero, he is making his case for supplanting Manny Ramirez and even Nomar in that department, and his worth in the clubhouse is also noteworthy. Six years ago, the team decided to wait for the season to end to see if the similarly-built Mo Vaughn was worth a mega-extension; Mo ultimately left, and not until Ramirez was signed did the Sox have an adequate power-hitting replacement. Ortiz was a big reason why the team’s offensive numbers went through the roof last season, and management would be wise to sew him up for the long term before he too can ply his trade for another contender.

Red Sox fans figure that the organization knows what it is doing regarding its impending free agents, and everyone has an opinion about who should absolutely be kept and who should undoubtedly be set free. Those views will likely change as the season ebbs and flows this summer, but there’s one last thing that Sox management should consider.

There are but two ways that this Red Sox season will end: euphoria or disappointment. Based on expectations around here, that’s just the way it is. Now if it’s euphoria, then each of the unsigned players will point to the fact that they helped break an 86-year title drought, and therefore these conquering heroes should be paid according to the team’s ultimate success. Seems only natural, doesn’t it? On the flip side, imagine that the team does any one of the following: misses the playoffs, loses in the ALDS, loses in the ALCS, or falls in the World Series. Given that the fandom wants a championship or else, anything short of a Fall Classic triumph will be deemed unacceptable. In any of those aforementioned fall-short scenarios, fingers will be pointed about the team’s inability to play up to its perceived ability. There will be bitterness, criticism, and scapegoating, and the team’s roster — particularly its big-name players — could be taken to task for the team’s shortcomings. With that kind of pressure and resentment likely directed toward them, do you think these players will find the climate conducive to re-signing here? I think not.

So if the Red Sox organization wants to keep this team together for the long run and for an extended competitive period, it would behoove them to take the necessary steps now. Otherwise, next year’s Red Sox team — win or lose — could have a much different look to it.

And so will the Yankees.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com