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Which current major-leaguers could end up in Cooperstown?

BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Finding myself this past weekend in the vicinity of my birthplace — Cooperstown, New York — ignited an idea to update a column that we put together two years ago. If we examine the MLB rosters, who among active players appears to be building a Hall of Fame career?

In July, well-deserved entrants Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor will make their acceptance speeches behind the museum library. This coming January, the list of those accepted into the Class of 2005 will likely also be a short one, with only former Soxer Wade Boggs a sure-fire entrant. (Darryl Strawberry will also be eligible, but his off-season trials and tribulations will likely KO any chance his on-field exploits would have merited.)

But each and every day, baseball fans around the nation are watching future Hall of Fame inductees in action without even realizing it, so let’s break down the list to see whose mug might be bronzed sometime in the 2010s. American League today; NL Friday.

Anaheim. The Halos emerged from a cloud of anonymity to win their first World Series in 2002, but their accomplishment was more a team effort than one generated by any one superstar. Yet their current roster has some intriguing possibilities. Bartolo Colon has had a solid career, the bulk of it in Cleveland, but he reached the majors late (age 24) and has just one 20-win season (2002) and only 104 career wins. He’s still effective at age 30, but there’s no way he can get to 200 wins, much less the magical 250 figure that most analysts figure is the minimum standard for modern-day Hall of Famers. Vladimir Guerrero, on the other hand, has collected 240 career homers along with a .336 career BA to go with a stellar defensive reputation, and the 28-year-old former Expo is off to a phenomenal start with the Angels. He didn’t get much ink in Montreal, but with a contending team, he’ll get the accolades he deserves and could be Hall-bound if he continues at this rate. The only other candidate on the roster is closer Troy Percival, who has accumulated eight straight seasons of at least 27 saves, and his nine-save total this season proves that he’s still lights-out. His career total of 292 is less than 100 behind Eckersley’s, but still nearly 200 behind career-saves leader Lee Smith (478). At age 34, Percival probably needs at least three more 35-plus-save seasons, and his chances of induction will likely be determined by the Angels’ continued competitiveness and his own consistency and durability. But as one of the game’s premier closers, he’s got a decent shot.

Baltimore. Rafael Palmeiro appears to be a shoo-in despite the remarkable fact that he’s never played for a real contender. Still, 532 HRs, a career .291 average, and three Gold Gloves are good enough credentials for me, and he’s solidly productive this season (.299 BA, .875 OPS) at age 39. Other than Barry Bonds, no one in baseball right now has better overall career stats than Palmeiro. The only other contender on the roster is Miguel Tejada, but one MVP season and a career .272 average does not a Hall of Famer make. But the 28-year-old has a lot of baseball left in him, and he can’t be ruled out as a future possibility.

Boston. Hmmm. Some no-brainers and some distinct possibilities. Pedro Martinez? Absolutely. Three Cy Young awards, 2465 strikeouts, and a career 2.61 ERA have pretty much already qualified him for induction. Curt Schilling? Not as clear-cut, despite his lengthy career (17 seasons) and co-MVP award in the 2001 World Series. Schilling has just 167 career victories and a 3.32 ERA, with just two 20-win seasons to show for his many years of service. Of course, 2595 strikeouts are impressive, but he’ll likely need to pitch effectively well into his 40s (he’s 37 now) to collect the stats to clinch a Hall berth. Still, like Clemens and Nolan Ryan, Schilling’s improved with age, and he’s a much better and smarter pitcher now than he was coming up. Two years ago, we considered Nomar Garciaparra a lock, but now we’re not so sure. He has batted over .300 in each of his six full seasons and has collected a pair of AL batting titles, but injuries in 2001 and this season have clouded his chances somewhat. If he can remain injury-free for the next decade, I think there’s no doubt Nomar will get voted in. But the last two injuries have been significant and troubling, and baseball fans everywhere can only hope that he’ll bounce back and return at full capacity. Finally, Manny Ramirez would also seem a certain future Hall inductee. The hitting machine is back to his old tricks this season, and that’s on top of a career that’s already seen him contribute 354 home runs, 1160 RBIs, and an average of .318 (and .598 slugging pct.) over his 12 seasons. He’s only 31, too, so he’s got a lot left in the tank to pump up those remarkable stats even more.

Chicago White Sox. Magglio Ordoñez is off to a good start (six .300 seasons) in his bid for Cooperstown glory. The only other contender on this roster is controversial 1B/DH Frank Thomas, whose character (like Jim Rice’s) may haunt him come time for the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) to vote. Still, it will be hard to dismiss his outstanding on-field totals, which include 423 HRs, 1413 RBIs, and a .309 career BA, even though they’re not significantly better than Rice’s overall stats. But Thomas’s reputation as a dangerous hitter has returned in recent years, and he if retires a career .300 hitter, that may be good enough for a thumbs-up from the Hall.

Cleveland. The only remotely qualified candidate is long-time shortstop Omar Vizquel, and his only shot is for the voters to overlook his career .274 average and instead focus on his nine Gold Gloves. That kind of defense-oriented career got Ozzie Smith into the Hall, but he at least played on a marquee team and had won a couple of World Series. Vizquel is buried in the Indians’ rebuilding effort, and he’s unlikely to get another shot at the Fall Classic anytime soon.

Detroit. At first glance, you’d probably say fuggedaboutit, but don’t forget Pudge Rodriguez is here in Motown, and his 10 Gold Gloves, AL MVP (1999), and heroics in last year’s post-season have likely clinched him a spot in Cooperstown. Add to that his career .305 average and 236 HRs (plus nearly 2000 hits), and he’s even more of a certainty.

Kansas City. Nineteen-year veteran Benito Santiago might cross the BBWAA’s mind, but he hasn’t put up the over-the-top numbers that are needed to wow the voters. That goes for Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran as well. And while 15-year veteran Juan Gonzalez has the borderline stats (429 HRs, .296 average, two AL MVPs), his reputation as a malcontent and a chronic disabled-list resident will likely emerge as the deciding factor against his selection.

Minnesota. Way too early to tell about any members of the youth movement in Minnesota, but three-time Gold Glover Torii Hunter is worth watching (anytime) despite the fact he’s never had a .300 season in his eight-year career. Pitcher Brad Radke’s been solid but otherwise less than dazzling stats-wise. And no, Jose Offerman, I wouldn’t book my room at the Otesaga Resort Hotel in advance, either.

New York Yankees. Two years ago we had six Pinstripers as certifiable, with five or six others as likely — plus the manager. This year we’ll say the following are no-doubters: Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez, and skipper Joe Torre. After that, it’s all dependent on the future tracks these various Yankees’ careers take: Derek Jeter (just needs a few more productive years), Kevin Brown (probably needs at least another 25-plus wins on top of his current total of 201), Gary Sheffield (has the borderline stats necessary, but a lot will depend on the steroid suspicion that hovers over him), Jason Giambi (ditto, and also needs to win at least one World Series and stay injury-free and productive), and Mike Mussina (needs a ring and probably at least 50 more wins — which is iffy given his age of 35). Javier Vazquez is promising but still too young to determine his future, and Bernie Williams’s once-bright star has faded dramatically in recent years.

Oakland. The A’s always lose players to free agency before they can become fixtures, but right now the leaders in the clubhouse are Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Eric Chavez. However, it’s way too early to determine any of their chances because each is still only in his mid-20s.

Seattle. Edgar Martinez hasn’t played more than seven games in the field since 1994 (and none since 2001), so he may become the first career DH to be elected. Does he deserve it? His next home run will be his 300th, he has 500 doubles, and his career BA of .314 is impressive, but he’s 41 and this is likely his last season. Right now he’s a toss-up, but I tend to think he’ll be denied when all is said and done.

Tampa Bay. Just don’t see it happening for anybody here, unless it’s Lou Piniella, if he can make a winner out of this bunch (good luck!). The only other dicey proposition is Fred McGriff, who’s currently stuck down in the minors but has 491 career home runs, good for 21st on the all-time list. Every other retired player with over 465 HRs is in the Hall, so should the Crime Dog join them? A career .285 hitter over 18 seasons, he’ll likely need to get back to the majors and improve on his total of 2477 career hits and smack homer number 500 before the deal is sealed.

Texas. A lot of up-and-comers, but no one is even remotely close right now.

Toronto. Still only 31, Carlos Delgado is one of the most feared hitters in the game. However, his inconsistent batting averages and high strikeout totals often offset his power numbers (309 HRs, .556 slugging). His chances at Cooperstown will probably be determined by his next address, since he will be eligible for free agency at the end of this season and will likely get to play for a contender for the first time in a decade.

Tune in Friday — same bat time, same bat station — for the NL contendahs.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com


Issue Date: May 10, 2004
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2004 | 2003 |2002
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