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Earlier this week, we discussed future Hall of Famers currently playing in American League parks. Today, we move on to the National League. Arizona. The only certainty on the once-proud 2001 World Champs’ roster is fireballing lefty Randy Johnson, whose 233 career wins is only 58th on the all-time list, but whose strikeout total of 3939 is fourth behind only Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. One could argue that the Big Unit is the dominant southpaw of the last decade, and while his skills have slipped, he’s got a World Series ring and enough credentials to get in right now. A trickier question is Roberto Alomar, the former All-Star second baseman who’s now on his seventh team. He’s a 10-time Gold Glover and a career .301 hitter, but he hasn’t reached that mark since 2001, and many believe he up and quit on the Mets during his two-year stay at Shea. And despite his model citizenship most of the time, he’ll never be forgotten for that spitting incident with umpire John Hirschbeck in 1996. It remains to be seen if he’ll ever get to 3000 hits given his age (36) — he’s 313 hits short — but his next two-bagger will be his 500th, and he’s had nine .300 seasons in his 17-year career. Plus, he’s been to the playoffs seven times with three different teams (and just because he’s moved a lot doesn’t make him Hall poison — ask the very well-traveled Rickey Henderson). So, despite dogging it for the last four seasons, Alomar’s built up enough substantial statistical evidence that he belongs. Atlanta. The only remaining member of the once-formidable Braves staff of the ’90s is starter-turned-closer John Smoltz. After 157 wins as a member of the rotation, Smoltz moved to the ’pen in 2001, and in the past two seasons has collected a remarkable 100 saves (including an NL-record 55-save season in 2002). Like Dennis Eckersley, Smoltz has excelled in both roles, and while his totals are somewhat borderline, I think his 13-4 post-season record and 92 percent success rate closing games will allow him to join former staff mates Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux in Cooperstown someday. And like him or not, Chipper Jones (seven .300 seasons and the ’99 MVP) is on pace to get there, too. Too soon to determine six-time Gold Glover Andruw Jones’s chances, since he’s only 27 despite a nine-year career. Chicago Cubs. Moises Alou is very unlikely, but pitcher Greg Maddux and outfielder Sammy Sosa would be first-ballot locks if the vote were held tomorrow. Maddux needs just nine more wins to reach the coveted 300-win plateau, and when he does he’ll be in the top 20 in victories all-time. He’s already 16th overall in strikeouts (2796), and his career ERA is a stunning 2.91. Sosa, after an unremarkable career through his early 20s, took off in 1993, and his 547 home runs are already 10th all-time. Finally, Kerry Woods’s health and durability will determine his future chances at enshrinement. Cincinnati. Forty-year-old Barry Larkin is probably in, although his career hit (2275) and HR (191) totals are negligible. Still, Larkin was the linchpin of the 1990 championship team, is batting .295 career, and has won three Gold Gloves and an NL MVP despite playing in virtual anonymity in small-market Cincy. Still, if Ozzie Smith is in, then Larkin should definitely be in, too. What about Ken Griffey Jr.? His selection to the All-Century Team in 1999, his 488 home runs, and his 10 Gold Gloves should be enough for voters, and despite his oft-injured status the past three seasons, Junior’s only 34 and should still get the opportunity to post even bigger numbers. Colorado. Also playing in the hinterlands and garnering little ink is Larry Walker, a seven-time Gold Glove winner and a former league MVP (’97). He’s batted over .300 nine times and his career average is .314, but his best days are behind him, and most of his 351 home runs (99 were as an Expo) are somewhat tainted by the thin air in Denver. Florida. A lot of up-and-comers on the World Champs, but only Mike Lowell and Jeff Conine could be regarded as distant possibilities right now. Houston. Roger Clemens. No further discussion needed. Let’s move on. Fellow Texan and former pinstriper Andy Pettitte is well on his way, having collected double-digit wins in each of his first nine seasons en route to a career total of 152 victories and 1294 strikeouts. Pettitte’s got a long way to go, though, and the 31-year-old will need to keep it going and lower his ERA to join his pal Roger in the Hall. Another former Soxer-turned-Astro destined for a bronze plaque is Jeff Bagwell, whose credentials are unassailable. A former Rookie of the Year, NL MVP, and Gold Glover, the former Boston farmhand has banged out 424 home runs with 1441 RBIs (and a lifelong .300 BA) over a 14-year career that has seen him miss only 24 games to injury over the last eight seasons. Jeff Kent is unlikely to make it, but four-time Gold Glover Craig Biggio probably will, based on his 1528 career runs (third among active players) and 528 doubles (28th all-time and just six behind Gehrig). Los Angeles. I don’t see anyone on this roster right now who has the stats, but Eric Gagne is off to a helluva start. Milwaukee. Lotsa beer, no champagne. Montreal. Uh, no. If it’s any consolation, their manager (Frank Robinson) is already in. NY Mets. Twenty-one seasons for ageless closer John Franco, who is now second on the all-time saves list with 424 and 10th in appearances with 1050. Is that longevity, coupled with a 2.79 career ERA, good enough for the Hall? Grudgingly, probably yes, especially since he, like Smoltz, has blown only eight percent of his save opportunities over that impressive career. Less dicey are the chances of Mike Piazza, whose remarkable rise from a 62nd-round pick will culminate in a first-ballot election. The only issue is whether he’ll wear a Mets or a Dodgers cap. He has a little way to go to overtake some of Carlton Fisk’s career numbers, but Piazza is now seen as the premier power-hitting catcher of our era, and his 364 career dingers and .318 average clinch his induction. Tom Glavine’s struggled a bit since relocating to Queens, but his entry was already in the bag long before he left the Braves via free agency. His overall numbers will likely suffer from his brief career in New York, but he’s got 256 career wins, two Cy Youngs, and five 20-win campaigns in his 17 seasons. Add to that his 32 post-season starts (and 2.16 ERA in nearly 60 innings of World Series competition), and he’s a cinch. Not so likely is fellow starter Al Leiter, who has only 146 wins despite 18 major-league seasons, and his 3.67 career ERA won’t turn any heads, either. Philadelphia. Billy Wagner has had six solid seasons as a closer, but 233 career saves can only be viewed as a good start at this point. Jim Thome, now a Phil after 12 seasons in Cleveland, is on the bubble a bit, as his total of 391 home runs is impressive (and 41st all-time), but his 1590 strikeouts (21st all-time) are not. Yet his slugging percentage (.571) is 12th all-time, and he’s batting .286 over 14 seasons. Let’s see what he does in the next five years, but 109 more HRs will likely seal the deal. Pittsburgh. Willie Stargell’s 1988 induction will likely represent the last Buc entry for a while. San Diego: Three maybes here. Trevor Hoffman has been one of the NL’s dominant closers for a decade. His 362 saves rank him fifth all-time, and his numbers compare favorably (other than longevity) with Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers’s. He’s 36, but off to a good start (10 saves) this season, and likely will pass Eckersley’s saves total sometime in the coming year. That’s good enough for me. David Wells landed here this season, but his reputation preceded him, and despite 202 career wins, the Hall has to draw the line somewhere, and Wells’s sometimes-boorish behavior and comments — along with an ERA over four — will likely keep him out. How about Brian Giles? Buried in football-crazy Pittsburgh between 1999 and 2002, Giles put up MVP-type numbers and established himself as a career .300 hitter, but unless his next decade is as productive as his first, he’ll continue to toil in anonymity and likely miss out on the Hall call. San Francisco. Closer Robb Nen seemed headed for a Hall of Fame career, but he’s been stuck on 314 saves since 2002, and a bum shoulder could put a premature end to his promising career. Other than that, there’s only Barry Bonds, and no current major-leaguer is more qualified for Hall entry right now than him. Even if the surly leftfielder were to be actually found guilty of steroid usage, it’s likely that Bonds — quite possibly the future all-time home-run champ and the best hitter of our generation — would still get in without a second thought. St. Louis. With all the potential Hall of Famers on this roster, you would think that the Redbirds would be better than 18-17 this season. Be that as it may, quite a few Cardinals could be on their way to Cooperstown if they continue on their present paths, including Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols, and Edgar Renteria. None is a certainty, however, at least at this juncture. The only one in the St. Louis clubhouse who can definitely start planning his acceptance speech is manager Tony La Russa, the four-time Manager of the Year whose lengthy tenure of excellence is certainly worthy of induction. Still, he’s won only one world title and three pennants in 27 seasons (along with a .529 winning percentage), so he ain’t no Casey Stengel. Between the two leagues, that comes out to 15 NL players and 10 AL players, and in about seven years or so, you’ll begin to see them parade to the podium in Cooperstown. And someday, you’ll be telling your grandchildren about them. As if they’ll care. Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com |
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Issue Date: May 14, 2004 "Sporting Eye" archives: 2004 | 2003 |2002 For more News & Features, click here |
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