E-Mail This Article to a Friend Why the Yankees are far from a lock to win it all BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Since stumbling out to an 8-11 start, the New York Yankees have been arguably baseball’s most consistent team. As of Monday, the team is 66-38, having gone 58-27 since the late-April debacle in the Bronx, when the hated Pedro Martinez and the Red Sox shut them out to complete a three-game sweep. Only the Cardinals at 67-37 have so far put together as impressive a season.

The Pinstripers are 30-15 against their AL East rivals, 10-7 against the Central teams, and a remarkable 16-8 against the tough West squads. They have erased the four-and-a-half-game deficit created by the Sox’ April sweep, and now have a nine-game lead over Boston — a nearly 14-game swing in just over three months. Eight Yankees were in Houston for last month’s All-Star game, while only two other MLB teams had as many as five representatives.

And though the Steinbrenner AC couldn’t swing a trading-deadline deal for Randy Johnson, the club did acquire its ninth 2004 All-Star on Saturday in White Sox right-hander Esteban Loaiza, the South Siders’ sole attendee at All-Star weekend. Worse for Yankees haters, not only did the team snare another quality starter, but in the process got rid of enigmatic Cuban defector Jose Contreras, who had shown alternating signs of brilliance and mediocrity in his season and a half in the Bronx. Why Chicago would have made this trade in the first place is certainly up for debate, but the results are the same: the rich got richer and potentially stronger.

So why is nobody outside the Tri-State Area pre-emptively crowning the Yankees World Series champions? Why is a team with a payroll $60 million higher than the second-highest competitor not a shoo-in for post-season glory? Why is a squad that boasts All-Stars at nearly every single position — plus the game’s best manager, best closer, and one-through-nine the most frightening offense in baseball — not being handed the championship trophy already?

What the Yankees have done to this point is somewhat remarkable, given the rash of injuries that has plagued the team throughout the season. That being said, of course, any team with $180 million worth of players should be able to plug holes with reasonably decent replacements, even though that hasn’t necessarily been the case. The Yankees pay top dollar to their marquee players, often at the expense of some of the back-ups, which creates a two-tier talent system in the clubhouse. So if a multimillionaire goes down to injury, he is replaced by a bargain-basement substitute.

Example: within New York’s infield, Jason Giambi ($12.4 million), Derek Jeter ($18.6 million), and Alex Rodriguez ($22 million) earn a combined mind-blowing $53 million — more than 11 major-league teams. Yet its second baseman, Miguel Cairo, makes $900,000, and utility infielder Enrique Wilson earns $700 grand. In the outfield, center fielder Kenny Lofton ($3.1 million) is a relative bargain compared to Hideki Matsui ($7 million), Bernie Williams ($12.3 million as a glorified DH), and Gary Sheffield ($13 million). The two remaining outfielders on the roster, however — Bubba Crosby and Ruben Sierra — make $1.3 million between them. On the mound, the Empire Staters’ big three — Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, and Javier Vazquez — collectively earn $40.7 million (while Loaiza’s $4 million price tag saves some cash compared to Contreras’s $8.5 million). When Mussina and Brown recently made visits to the DL, however, the Yanks were forced to turn to on-the-cheap options like Brad Halsey, Scott Proctor, Tanyon Sturtze, and Orlando Hernandez, who represented significant drop-offs in both salary and skill. But the Yankees have survived (mostly because of the Red Sox’ struggles) and even flourished at times, while Moose, Brown, and Giambi recuperated.

Even so, this Yankees team, as presently constructed, will have trouble going very far in the playoffs, much less winning a World Series. How can that be? Because as Yankees fans would seemingly know, a number of big concerns and question marks circulating around their team have thus far been masked by the squad’s success. To this point, the Pinstripers’ problems have popped up only in drips and drabs, but they could ultimately scuttle plans for another ticker-tape parade through Broadway’s Canyon of Heroes come November.

To wit: injuries. We’ve mentioned how the Bombers have managed to ride high despite the physical problems endured by Mussina (sore elbow and groin), Brown (back), and Giambi (an intestinal parasite later diagnosed as a benign tumor). Those aches and pains have landed each of these players on the shelf for sustained amounts of time. As we speak, Brown is back on the active roster, Mussina’s return is imminent, and Giambi is expected at some point. Yet Mussina’s elbow injury could very well recur — ask former teammate Andy Pettitte — and groin problems are very difficult to shake completely during the course of a season, especially for a pitcher. Brown has suffered back problems for years and even had surgery two years ago to rectify the problem, but he can’t hide the fact that he’s 39, is notoriously injury-prone, and backs are tricky things, as anyone who’s had such an ailment can attest. (And if the Yanks are counting on El Duque to step in for either of these guys again, Hernandez is suffering from some hamstring injuries of his own that could delay his return.) Giambi? Who knows how this unfortunate turn of events will affect his physical condition or his return, but it’s hard to believe the organization’s optimism is shared by everyone associated with the team.

Then you’ve got the guys who are hurt but are playing through the pain. Gary Sheffield’s shoulder is so bad that it’s affecting his throwing capabilities. The right fielder wants to avoid surgery until season’s end, but the injury’s not getting any better and could deteriorate to a point where the Yanks slugger will have to go on the DL at a particularly inopportune time. In addition, though reliever Paul Quantrill’s been pitching through a sore knee (and his velocity’s been off in recent weeks, according to Peter Gammons), he can’t afford to miss any time, either, because aside from Felix Heredia (he of the 6.32 ERA), New York doesn’t have any other lefties in the bullpen. Starter Jon Lieber and set-up man Tom Gordon have provided solid help for the team this year, but both are coming off arm surgery in recent years. Lieber is struggling (4.75 ERA, having lost five of his last eight), and the 36-year-old Gordon has been relied upon way too much this season (52 appearances) for a guy who prior to last season (64 games) hadn’t appeared in 60-plus games since 1998. Rivera remains virtually invincible, but even he blew back-to-back saves a week ago, and will be counted on that much more heavily if the set-up guys ahead of him break down or render themselves ineffective.

The Yankees have won at a consistent and impressive clip this season, but given their offensive roster, one would have thought they’d be throttling teams on a regular basis. Instead, the team is 19-11 in one-run games (and has won another 15 games by a pair), and is 10th in the AL in batting — tied with 45-59 Toronto. The pitching staff is only sixth in the league with a 4.54 ERA, though admittedly those stats have suffered from the absences of Mussina and Brown. Yet even with former Gold Glovers like A-Rod, Mussina, and Williams on board, the Pinstripers are only the 22nd-best fielding team in baseball.

Will all these things magically improve for the New Yorkers come September and October? Without Boston to challenge the Yanks for divisional honors, it may be difficult for Joe Torre to keep his team focused, especially if the nagging injuries continue to wreak havoc in the rotation and among the elite players. New York fans have every right to be excited and proud of their team to this point, but if Mussina and/or Brown goes down, and Vazquez and Loaiza are subsequently thrown into the playoffs as the team’s aces (with but one game of post-season experience between them), then offensive powerhouses like Anaheim, Boston, and even Texas could pose problems. Sheffield has been the Bombers’ most ferocious offensive threat, but his shoulder woes could put more pressure on the rest of the line-up — none of whom is hitting above .300 at this point, despite their lofty salaries.

Don’t get me wrong: the Yankees are loaded, and they’ve overcome their share of adversity to stake their claim as one of baseball’s top teams (as well they should be, given their payroll). But like the Red Sox, the Yankees have built their team for what seems to be a win-it-or-else season, and despite the roster injuries and aging process, Steinbrenner will accept nothing less than the Yanks’ first world title since 2000.

But right now, St. Louis, Oakland, Minnesota, Anaheim, the Nomar-enhanced Cubs, and even LA might be better teams. Losing to those sub–$100 million teams would be a bitter pill to swallow for the Yankees and their followers — excuses be damned.

Still, the trading deadline is past, and New York is stuck with the guys who brung ’em to this point.

Pencil them in for their 27th world title?

Only if the eraser’s handy.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com