E-Mail This Article to a Friend The 2004 NFL Preview: AFC BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

No NFL football season has opened with more hype, and we’re not even talking about the extravaganza that opened the 2004 campaign at Gillette Stadium Thursday night. In the past, the credo has been that "defense wins championships." Well, this year I think it’ll be the offense that dictates the Super Bowl winner in Jacksonville next February, with the champion’s defense likely having played just well enough to keep the vanquished foe at bay. In short, it’ll probably be a championship game similar to last February’s exciting 32-29 yardfest in Houston won by the Patriots.

Speaking of the New Englanders, I’ll say it up-front: I don’t think Bill Belichick’s squad will repeat. Call it a hunch, call it a sense of foreboding; it’s just too easy to pick them to win a third Lombardi Trophy in four years, and I think that despite the coaching staff’s urgings and esteemed game plans, the team won’t be quite as hungry — and maybe even a little complacent — as was the injury-ravaged squad that surprised nearly everyone last season. Having a reasonably easy schedule and a fairly weak division in which to knock heads should guarantee New England a playoff spot, but those teams left by the wayside during the Pats’ 15-game win streak last season will be targeting the Flying Elvises from the outset and could dethrone the champs come the post-season.

Let’s take a look at the AFC today and the NFC Monday. So that our judgment wasn’t tainted by the combatants’ weekend production, both pieces were written before any of the relevant teams had taken the fields.

AFC East. I don’t think there’s any way that New England can lose its divisional honors, not when you’ve got a trio of opponents who have made only marginal improvements. The Patriots, of course, made significant upgrades, although the losses to free agency of linemen Damien Woody and Ted Washington will likely be exploited by top-notch running teams that come to town. How the Patriots overcame all of the early injuries in 2003 to not only go to the Super Bowl but unleash that 15-game streak en route is one of the more heartwarming stories of this or any other NFL season, but they won’t sneak under the radar this year. Tom Brady will undoubtedly be Tom Brady again, but the key to the Pats’ success will be — as always — establishing a running game and stopping same on the other side of the ball. A distant second in the division looks to be the NY Jets, whose draft was nothing special (other than UMiami’s Jonathan Vilma) but whose defense will certainly benefit from the arrival of former Ravens secondary coach Mark Henderson. Having QB Chad Pennington healthy to start the season is an obvious plus for the team, and ageless wonder Curtis Martin is back for more poundings squirting through the line (although all bets are off if either one of these offensive weapons is incapacitated). Miami would probably be last in a lot of other divisions, and frankly, they’re a bigger mess this year than in any other season in recent memory. Vanilla Jay Fiedler and Peach Melba AJ Feeley will fight for snaps, but who they’ll hand off to once they step back from center (after Ricky Williams’s stunning retirement) is the biggest question mark in South Florida. Injuries and poor drafting have already killed the Fins’ chances, and only their defense gives hope for a .500 season. Still, I like them better than Buffalo, despite a new coach (former Steelers O-coordinator Mike Mularkey) and an upgraded line. Drew "Feet of Stone" Bledsoe’s still flingin’ ’em, and his age (32) and the punishment of 49 sacks last season are likely to accelerate the likeable former Pat’s demise. He’s got a good corps of receivers, but will he have enough time to get the ball into their mitts? In addition, RB Travis Henry’s got sore ribs, and former Miami back Willie McGahee is just now getting back from the knee injury that sidelined him all last season, so there’s some concern there. Add to that a schedule that could see the Bills get out of the gate at 0-6, and it could be another long, cold winter on the shores of Lake Ontario. We predict: NE 12-4; NYJ 9-7; Mia 6-10; Buff 5-11.

AFC North: If you thought that the AFC East was weak, get a gander at the North. Baltimore’s the clear pick, but the reasoning is solidly based on its defense, and little else. Sure, Jamal Lewis is one of the league’s top backs, but he’s got a court date (drug-distribution charges) on November 1, and to have the possibility of 30 years in the big house hanging over his head as he heads out to work every Sunday could cut into his vast production. Kyle Boller went only 5-4 as a starter at QB last season before injury curtailed his season, so he’s still got a bit to prove, but the Ray Lewis–anchored defense will still keep the Ravens in every game. Moving up on the outside are the former laughingstocks of the league, with Cincinnati under second-year coach Marvin Lewis making great strides in overcoming the franchise’s dubious recent history. Corey Dillon’s defection to New England paves the way for the unfolding of the Rudi Johnson era, and if you’re unfamiliar with the former Auburn back, you’ll be less so as the season progresses. Pairing Johnson with former Heisman winner Carson Palmer will continue the Bengals’ rejuvenation and confirm that their 31-0 pre-season rout of the defending champs was no fluke. Still, last season’s 28th-ranked defense could continue to be a liability. Not many believe in him, but Jeff Garcia could do some nice things in Cleveland, which went nowhere last season with Tim Couch under center. The Browns still should run the ball effectively, but like the Bengals, their defense will likely keep them out of the playoff picture. Finally, when the Pats visit Pittsburgh this season for the first time since the 2002 title game, they’ll find a shadow of that former squad. Bill Cowher’s still there (having inexplicably received a two-year extension despite the team’s 6-10 record), but long gone are Slash, the Bus (in any meaningful capacity), and Rod Woodson. Luckily for the locals, the Big East’s Pitt Panthers should be decent and could win more games than their pro counterparts. We predict: Balt 11-5; Cincy 9-7; Cleve 8-8; Pitt 6-10.

AFC South: The NFL’s toughest group, without question. The class of the division again is Tennessee despite losing mainstays Eddie George and Jevon Kearse, among others. Still, Steve McNair should finally have healed since last season’s physical beatings, and RB Chris Brown should post big numbers in the backfield, replacing George. One of the best coaching staffs in the NFL plus a rugged defense should propel the Titans back into the post-season. Look for Indianapolis to take another step toward its first Super Bowl this season, even though I’m not necessarily picking them to take the South. Armed with one of the most feared offenses in the league, Tony Dungy’s crew still hasn’t addressed its defensive shortcomings enough to win the division outright. Still, don’t be surprised if Peyton & Co. — should most everyone stay healthy — emerge from its wild-card spot to win the AFC. Also right in the hunt should be rapidly improving Jacksonville, which two years removed from the Tom Coughlin regime is now back on the rise. While some have fashionably picked the Jags as a team on the precipice of the Super Bowl, signal-caller Bryon Leftwich has a ways to go before he and Tom Brady can be mentioned in the same breath. Finally, Houston could finally edge toward .500 in its third year of existence, and last year’s 5-11 season was skewed by the fact that the team lost so many close games late — including an OT loss to the Pats that the Texans seemingly had in the bag until Brady in the final minutes converted a fourth-down TD pass. Houston will continue to improve, but shortcomings on the D-line and secondary may prove costly. We predict: Tenn 11-5; Indy 11-5; Jax 9-7; Hou 8-8.

AFC West: Kansas City will still light it up on offense this season, but I fail to see any realistic improvements on the other side of the ball to warrant booking a suite in Jacksonville. The last time we saw the Chiefs, they were giving up 38 points to the Colts — at Arrowhead — after giving up back-to-back 45-point outbursts to close out the regular season. As long as Priest Holmes doesn’t get himself hurt, though, KC should emerge atop the West, especially if defensive guru Gunther Cunningham can turn things around. No such concerns in Denver, where the Bronco D should return to form. Losing RB Clinton Portis in trade to the Redskins hurt, but many expect Jake Plummer to put up MVP-type numbers, and the ferocious defense should do the rest. Oakland finally let loose aging receiver Tim Brown, but they’ve still got enough AARP guys to keep the Grecian Formula guys in business for another year. Still suiting up but soon to be collecting his pension along with his weekly paycheck are veterans Jerry Rice (41), Rich Gannon (38), and Tyrone Wheatley (32), along with free-agent additions Ted Washington (36), Warren Sapp (32), and Kerry Collins (31). Would it be out of line to suggest that they perhaps consider a yoot movement? Finally, last and least, here are your all-to-yootful San Diego Chargers, arguably the NFL’s worst team for the last two seasons and looking for the hat trick. According to Sports Illustrated, the Bolts will start 15 players who are under age 25, and that doesn’t bode well for any team in this rough-’n’-tumble division. Eli Manning didn’t want to come here, so the Chargers instead got NC State QB Philip Rivers, and he’ll try to unseat the incumbent bust, Drew Brees. Former top-five pick LaDainian Tomlinson will be the offensive focus, but the team’s defense will be on the field a lot more than the former TCU back will ever be, and Doug Flutie’s swan song in the NFL likely won’t be pretty. We predict: KC 11-5; Denv 10-6; Oak 6-10; SD 4-12.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com