E-Mail This Article to a Friend The 2004 NFL Preview: NFC BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Last week we previewed the AFC for the coming year, and to access that column you can click here. Today, we look at the NFC. And don’t get all in a tizzy: this was written before Sunday’s opening-weekend action.

NFC East. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here by picking the Philadelphia Eagles as likely winners. After all, they’ve been to the last three NFC championship games, and even though they’ve hosted ’em all and lost ’em all, they’ve still made some minor improvements and continue to sport some of the most exciting players in the game. Plus, I don’t think much of the competition in the NFC East. Of course, Donovan McNabb must stay healthy for the Eagles to flourish, and that goes double for RB Brian Westbrook and WR Terrell Owens. The latter had better tone down his act or risk alienating a close-knit clubhouse, and the defense has to hope that the signing of injury-prone Jevon Kearse will boost the line. I considered putting last year’s wild cards, the Cowpokes, next, but QB Quincy Carter is gone in favor of Vinny Testaverde. Therefore, I’m going with Washington, even though I have serious doubts about whether a coach who has been out of the league for a dozen years can just pick up where he left off. Still, Joe Gibbs is a proven winner (having won three Super Bowls) and a Hall of Famer. Owner Daniel Snyder had better trust the former Skins coach to do what Steve Spurrier could not: handle an often overpaid and underperforming roster. I don’t expect the passing game to light things up under aging Mark Brunell, but with Clinton Portis in the backfield, Washington should score points in bunches. I think the Skins are still a year away from the playoffs, but they should out-duel Bill Parcells’s Dallas club, which has put its fate into the 40-year-old hands of Testaverde, with the pigskin more often than not landing in the grips of former teammate Keyshawn Johnson. The Cowboys got to the post-season last year on defense, though, and that is where the Tuna’s leadership has always been strongest. I still don’t think that putting malcontents Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, and Johnson on the same team was such a good idea in terms of clubhouse chemistry, though. I have a lot of friends in upstate New York who won’t like me putting the NY Giants in fourth, but there’s a reason why Kurt Warner was let go in St. Louis. His liabilities will likely cost the team until Eli Manning is ready — which may be a while. Let’s also see how the team takes to the regimented direction of new coach Tom Coughlin, who didn’t make too many friends in training camp. I see the team starting off 1-4 before making a mid-season run toward respectability. We predict: Philly 12-4; Wash 9-7; Dallas 8-8; NY 7-9.

NFC North. It’s hard not to like the Minnesota Vikings, who would have represented the North in the playoffs last season if not for a defensive breakdown on the last play of the last game against the hapless Arizona Cardinals. Third-year head coach Mike Tice is nonetheless a rising star in the league, and this year the combination of an electrifying offense, a solid defense, and a so-so division should lift the Vikes back into playoff territory and beyond. Daunte Culpepper–to–Randy Moss remains a lethal combination. Minnesota needs to get off to a good start (like last season’s 6-0) and not get complacent down the stretch, as it did last year when it lost its final five road games en route to its 9-7 finish. Benefiting from last year’s Minny meltdown was Green Bay, which took the surprising division crown and got to the NFC semis before imploding in OT against the Eagles. Brett Favre is still there, annually threatening to retire but still posting solid numbers and running around like a man half his age (which is nearly 35). Favre won’t have to carry the whole load this season, as he’s got two capable backs to hand off to, and Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport could each win a rushing title if given the chance. The opportunity for the offense (and thereby the team) to prosper will come down to the efforts of the defense, which is questionable at this time, and will go a long way in determining the Pack’s post-season fate. Continuing its gradual rise back to even halfway decent is Detroit, with head coach Steve Mariucci again resting his hopes on the arm of third-year QB Joey Harrington. The patience of Lions fans will again be tested, though, as the team should continue to improve from its last three years of win totals (five, three, and two), but will likely have enough problems on both sides of the ball to find itself outside the playoff picture come January. For a team that hasn’t won 10 games since 1995 and annually drafts high, Detroit’s road back has been a rocky one. Finally, Chicago. Another long-suffering franchise (only one Super Bowl appearance in 38 years) looks to a new coach to solve its ills. In this instance, the Bears have turned to former Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith to rejuvenate a franchise that has had two dismal seasons since it went a surprising 13-3 in 2001. Still, only linebacker Brian Urlacher is a household name, and depending on how Chicago does in its home opener against the Lions, the Bears could be facing an 0-6 start and a schedule that does them no favors. We predict: Minn 13-3; GB 9-7; Detroit 6-10; Chicago 5-9.

NFC South. Last season it was Carolina’s defense that got it all the way to the Super Bowl, and though the D vanished at times during the team’s 32-29 loss in Houston, the offense did some great things and for a time put the fear of God into Bill Belichick’s bunch. Unfortunately, this off-season the Panthers weren’t able to retain much of the offensive line that sprung Stephen Davis for so many big gains, and the defense could be porous at times, particularly against the pass. Still, Carolina should coast in this division because of its weak division mates, including Atlanta, which will live and die on the health of QB Michael Vick, and two other squads looking to restore some past glory. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl just two years ago, but head coach Jon Gruden isn't the genius du jour anymore, and the roster no longer includes some of the marquee names that took the team to the apex of the NFL in 2003. Keyshawn, Warren Sapp, and John Lynch are all out west, and in their place are a bunch of no-names. Nevertheless, without the bull’s-eye on their chests and a new GM in place, the Bucs should bounce back somewhat from their lackluster 7-9 2003 season. Until they show me otherwise, the vastly talented but chronic underachieving New Orleans Saints will get little respect here. Last season the consistently inconsistent Saints finished the year W-L-W-L-W-L-W. And this was a year after they dropped their last three regular-season contests, thus blowing an almost certain playoff berth. We predict: Carolina 11-5; Atlanta 9-7; TB 8-8; NO 7-9.

NFC West. For perhaps the first season ever, the Seattle Seahawks are being picked as divisional champs not only by me, but by numerous other prognosticators. Who are these guys, anyway? Well, in his fifth season at the helm, former Green Bay coach Mike Holmgren finally got these guys to a double-digit win total last season, and even into the playoffs, where the Hawks lost in OT at Green Bay during wild-card weekend. Former BC QB Matt Hasselbeck continues to blossom, RB Shaun Alexander hopes to establish big numbers to guarantee a big-money free-agent deal this off-season, and the receivers, though unheralded, should contribute mightily to the NFC’s (potentially) most prolific offense. Defensively, they’re reasonably solid, and their division mates in the West shouldn’t pose too many problems. Remember when the St. Louis Rams were being fitted with the NFL’s "dynasty" label? For what? One measly title in 2000 and then a Super Bowl loss two years later to a 14-point underdog? Head coach Mike Martz’s "genius" tag was again tarnished when the Rams dropped a divisional playoff at home against the Panthers last season, and not enough serviceable youth has been injected into this aging squad to make anyone believe they’ve got another Super Bowl run in them. Still hanging around and still beat up on a regular basis are the last vestiges of that 2000 championship squad — Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace, and Torry Holt — but the team’s hopes will rest on Warner’s successor, Marc Bulger, and first-round draftee Steven Jackson, Oregon State’s explosive RB. Still, many Rams fans share my feeling that Martz cannot be trusted not to screw this thing up somewhere, and the team’s return to the post-season is dubious. The decline of San Francisco’s program continues, and Mariucci, Jeff Garcia, and TO are all gone from a team that just two years ago reached the NFC semis; instead, the 49ers’ roster is littered with who-dats. It’ll be a long autumn and winter in the Bay Area once Barry Bonds & Co. close down for the season. In our final spot is the team that has had losing seasons in each of the last six years, and will likely regain the top overall draft pick come next spring. You guessed it: your Arizona Cardinals. Former Vikings coach Dennis Green has been hired to restore order, but all you need to know is that Emmitt Smith is your lead back and the immortal Josh McCown is your signal-caller. We predict: Seattle 12-4; St.L 9-7; SF 6-10; Ariz 5-11.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com