E-Mail This Article to a Friend Roster-juggling: The Red Sox ponder the post-season BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Given the Red Sox’ history, it may be a bit premature, risky, or even downright dangerous to embark on this topic, but I am a forward-thinking person who believes that certain issues need to be addressed. Therefore, I’ll come right out and say it: I truly believe the Boston Red Sox baseball club will qualify for the post-season.

Is this really a dicey proposition? Heading into weekend play in the Bronx, the Sox have a five-and-a-half-game lead in the wild-card standings, and Boston’s primary challenger for that spot, the second-place Anaheim Angels, have been playing .500 baseball for the past three weeks. Even worse for Halos fans: while Boston has to play the division also-rans (Tampa Bay and Baltimore) in its remaining 11 non-Yankee games, Anaheim must contend with Texas, Seattle, Oakland, Texas, and Oakland again — with the last seven on the road. Those are some tough foes against whom to make up nearly six games in the standings, and I don’t think the Angels can do it.

There. The Sox will make the playoffs. It’s out there for all to see. Now what?

Well, during the team’s tremendous run through the latter half of August and into September, the Sox have "benefited" from some disabled-list vacancies, and, on September 1, the expansion of the 25-man roster to a full 40. It allowed Boston to bring up some people from Pawtucket, try a few fellows out, and rest some weary veterans as they prepared for the playoff wars.

A 40-man roster in September undoubtedly is a good idea.

But once the Sox complete regular-season game number 162 on October 3 in Baltimore, the clock will strike midnight for the 40 princes in the coach as they head back to their palace. They will revert back to the standard 25-man roster — and that’s where it will get tricky for manager Terry Francona, GM Theo Epstein, and the other personnel guys charged with making these kinds of decisions.

Who will stay, and who will go? Who deserves to remain on board for the ALDS, and who ultimately must be sacrificed in order to create a deep and balanced line-up, capable of charging through the first round and beyond?

Frankly, some guys’ feelings are going to be hurt. Some members of the squad who made key contributions throughout the year will be on the outside looking in when cut-down day comes. It could be ugly, and one can only hope the close-knit nature of this club will encourage the cast-offs to accept the decisions that are made, knowing additional roster revisions can be made if the Sox advance to the ALCS.

I’m certainly not privy to the inner sanctum over on Yawkey Way, but I’m certain that discussions on this topic already have begun to simmer. Here are the 25 gents who I predict will represent the Crimson Hose when they begin post-season play on October 5.

The locks:

Infielders: Kevin Millar (1B/OF), Mark Bellhorn (2B), Orlando Cabrera (SS), and third baseman Bill Mueller (assuming his current knee problems are not long-lasting).

Catchers: Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli.

DH: David Ortiz.

Outfielders: Manny Ramirez (LF) and Johnny Damon (CF).

Pitchers: Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Keith Foulke, Alan Embree, and Mike Timlin.

That’s 15. We have 10 spots left, but we’ve also obviously left off some integral components of this year’s late-summer bashers. So let’s fill some holes and debate who merits the coveted remaining slots.

In the infield, some utilitymen have to be considered, and that’s where it may get tough. They’ll need a defensive-minded first baseman in the mold of mid-’80s-staple Dave Stapleton for late-inning substitutions, and that’s where Theo & Co. will need to decide between trade-deadline acquisition Doug Mientkiewicz or career back-up David McCarty. They’re both putting up similar (subpar) numbers (.242 and .245, respectively), but Mientkiewicz, the ex-Twin, is a former Gold-Glover who is batting .273 for his career. McCarty, though valuable at times this season, is a .240 career hitter. Would the brass take into consideration McCarty’s possible availability for pitching duty if a 15-inning game were to unfold? Probably not. Mientkiewicz likely will get the nod.

The back-up for second base and shortstop will probably be Pokey Reese, assuming he’s sufficiently recovered from his list of injuries this season (thumb, toe, ribs). Though he’s hardly an offensive threat (.228 as of this writing), he’s also a former Gold-Glover and will likely be chosen over former Cub Ricky Gutiérrez, who’s played in only 14 games for Boston. Given the fragility of Mueller’s knee, surprising rookie Kevin Youkilis also will be a necessary addition to back up the hot corner.

Now we’re up to 18 spots, with only seven remaining.

Back to the outfield. I don’t know see how the team could possibly leave Gabe Kapler off the roster, given his solid production while spelling the oft-injured Trot Nixon in right field this season. Kapler’s batting .273, and his all-out hustle and leadership have been exemplary despite his fill-in role; he is eminently deserving of a spot in the post-season. The remaining outfield opening, though, is a bit less settled: will it be Nixon, who finally seems healthy after his lengthy stint on the DL (quadriceps strain), or trade-deadline pick-up Dave Roberts, whose speed (especially for pinch-running opps) and ability to play several different positions — infield and outfield — make him a valuable and versatile commodity? Let’s say for now that both of ’em make it, but that will all depend on how many pitchers Francona wants to carry. Either way, there’s no room for Ellis Burks, who has been a nonfactor throughout the season because of knee problems. Even though Burks might be close to returning to action this weekend, it could be too late to make a difference for the classy veteran.

Twenty-one spots have now been filled, and that leaves only four open pitching spots. Because the skipper likely will prefer some depth in the bullpen, Nixon or Roberts might well get axed for first-round action, and that will be a very difficult decision.

Glad I don’t have to make it.

So the roster’s back down to 20, and we have five pitchers to choose from a pool of nine.

We filled only three starter spots above, but I believe that both fourth starter Tim Wakefield, who could fill a bullpen role if necessary, and fifth starter Bronson Arroyo will be added. Wakefield hasn’t pitched well in his past four outings (14 earned runs in 15-plus innings), but the versatile veteran was left off the playoff roster in 1999 and doesn’t deserve the same fate this season. As far as Arroyo goes, he too could come out of the pen (as he did in last year’s playoffs), and he’s been a solid spot starter as well, so he’ll likely be kept.

That leaves three more spots for set-up men in the bullpen. The Red Sox would love to have a healthy Scott Williamson pitching lights-out, as he did in last season’s post-season (a 1.12 ERA over eight games), but despite his recent activation from the DL, he is too fragile and therefore too much of a liability — if Williamson’s elbow flares up, the team will be unable to replace him mid-series. Consequently, that leaves three choices from the following talent pool: Ramiro Mendoza, Lenny DiNardo, Terry Adams, Mike Myers, Curtis Leskanic, and Pedro Astacio. I think we can safely eliminate Astacio, who was recently activated but is coming back from off-season shoulder surgery, and has appeared in only one game since his call-up (and his 10.80 ERA in his debut is noteworthy in a dubious sense). The only two lefties among the relief corps (other than Embree) are DiNardo and Myers, and just one is likely to get selected. DiNardo went on the DL in early July for a finger blister, and for some reason didn’t get activated again until last week (must have been one whale of an infection). Myers has been healthy since Boston acquired him from the Mariners on August 5, but his 4.15 ERA in 16 appearances hasn’t exactly been awe-inspiring. Still, look for Myers to get the call for southpaw relief, which leaves us with a single roster spot remaining.

Adams has posted an unsightly 6.28 ERA since his late-July trade from Toronto, so I don’t think he instills overwhelming confidence. Mendoza had a wide assortment of mystifying injuries this season, and in truth his free-agent signing last season has been seen as one of Epstein’s sole miscues. Yet the former pinstriped Sox-killer has been surprisingly effective since he was activated in mid-July, and his minuscule 1.88 ERA over the course of his 21 outings is second on the team. Leskanic has been called upon for much more frequent duty (44 appearances) and he has some background as a closer, but his 6.14 ERA really jumps out. And frankly, for all his maladies, Mendoza has more reliably done the job in recent weeks. Advantage: the former Yank.

The 25-man roster is now complete, even though I remain unsure as to whether Roberts or Nixon will get the gate, thereby leaving a potential offensive weapon on the bench. Still, most of the unsung heroes who made this season such a remarkable one for Boston fans will be on board for the first-round ride, and, should the roster play out as outlined above, it will provide Red Sox Nation with a potent arsenal for which to cheer as the team matches up against the A’s, Twins, or Angels.

With whom would the local 25 prefer to tangle in the ALDS come October? And would a division crown be preferable to that kissin’-your-sister wild-card berth? Those, my friends, are stories for another day.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com