E-Mail This Article to a Friend If I’m the Yankees ... BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

If I’m a member of the New York Yankees roster, or its front office, or its coaching staff, or its masseur staff, or even of its legion of fans worldwide, I’ve got to be pleased about our already-clinched playoff spot and our impending divisional crown — the seventh straight in the always-tough AL East.

On the other hand, if I’m heading into the post-season in a week’s time, I’ve got some real concerns about the inherent strength of our team, and the length of stay we will be spending in the Hotel Playoffs.

Yet if I’m the Yankees, I know that we have a ton of battle-tested all-stars on our squad, and one of the most ferocious line-ups that any major-league ball club has ever assembled. That’s usually good for at least five runs a game (we’re second in the majors in runs scored, with 876 in 156 games to this point), along with a majors-leading total of 235 home runs.

Still, the Pinstripers’ team batting average is only .269, which is 12th-best in the big leagues, and ranks behind such inconsequential teams as the Orioles, Padres, Rockies, Indians, and (gulp!) Tigers. And we’re second in runs scored to those fellows from Boston, who have already put up over 900 runs.

But I’ve got to be happy that our 97 wins heading into the final week of the regular season is tops in the American League, and second only to the runaway Cardinals in the NL. We’ve been in first place for the bulk of the season, and even a late torrid run by the Red Sox wasn’t enough to catapult them over us. Consequently, the Bostonians will most likely have to settle for their seventh straight second-place finish when the dust finally settles on Sunday evening. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Yet there seems something really wrong when this juggernaut of a team, with baseball’s highest payroll by at least one-third, is 20th in team ERA, at 4.73. Lordy, even irrelevants like Montreal, Milwaukee, Texas, and, God help us, Pittsburgh have lower earned-run averages than our staff, and we’ve got the likes of Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Orlando Hernandez, and Jon Lieber anchoring our staff.

If I’m the Yankees, though, I can point to the fact that we have to play such offensive stalwarts as Boston and Baltimore 19 times apiece during the regular season, so our pitching numbers are bound to be deceptively inflated. After all, those two teams are second and third in the majors respectively in team average, and they’re certain to post big numbers on a regular basis.

Still, Tampa Bay’s in our same division, and the Devil Rays’ ERA is just one one-100th higher than ours. They’re not only playing Boston and Baltimore 19 times each as well, but they’re also playing us those 19 times — and our pitching staff is drastically superior to theirs, isn’t it?

No matter. The Yankees have endured some significant injuries to the starting rotation during this season, and at times we’ve had to throw out onto the hill the likes of Brad Halsey, Alex Graman, and Donovan Osborne, so those pitching numbers are undoubtedly a bit skewed. The proof is in the pudding when it comes to our relief corps, with Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, and Mariano Rivera providing the prototype bullpen that wins championships. The latter, after all, has already won four World Series rings. The other two are set-up men extraordinaire, and have provided the stability in the late-inning relief corps that had been missing in prior years.

Still, one has to admit that with that contingent, you would expect the statistics for the bullpen staff to be right up near the top in Major League Baseball. Do you know where New York’s relievers rank as a group? Unbelievably, they’re 22nd, with a team ERA of 4.53. Heck, that’s worse than the Royals, for cryin’ out loud, and that team’s going to lose 100 games.

Really, though, if I’m a Yankee, I know we’ve got guys who will come through at crunch time, just like the bunch that won four championships in five years back in the late ’90s. Guys like Mussina, A-Rod, Flash, Quantrill, John Olerud, Lieber, and even Jason Giambi are champions in their own rights, and will be able to show that mettle in the post-season.

Yet if that’s true, how come none of them has ever actually won a World Series to this point in his career? And why are Yankees backers concerned about the number of games that Quantrill (first in the AL), Gordon (second), and Rivera (seventh) in which those key components have appeared? (Let’s not even talk about Quantrill getting lit up — again — on Saturday night in a 12-5 loss to Boston, and Esteban Loaiza stinkin’ up the joint in similar fashion in relief of Brown — two-thirds of an inning pitched, four earned runs — on Sunday.)

If I'm the Yankees, I feel privileged to know that Pedro Martinez considers us his "daddy," and that we seem to have his number, having beaten him twice this season and two more times during last October's ALCS.

Yet despite Pedro's recent struggles against us, I cannot ignore the fact that he shut us out, 2-0, at Yankee Stadium back in April.

If I’m the Yankees, though, in the bigger picture I know that our team has beaten Oakland seven times out of nine games this past season, and the A’s won just one of six in Yankee Stadium this year. Since we’ll have home-field advantage against them (or the Twins) in the upcoming ALDS, does slumping Oakland even have a prayer?

Yet strange things happen in the post-season, a fact with which we’re all too familiar. The Twins and A’s are one and two as far as AL team ERAs go (4.01 and 4.14), and the Red Sox are third (4.16); we’re only seventh, with a mark closer to five than to four. And Minnesota, should we play them in the first round, already beat us two of three in the Hanky Dome, holding our offense to just a pair of runs in each of those two losses. The three games the teams play in the Bronx this week could help sort that out, but either way, I don’t think that I want to play the Twins at all in the first round.

But even if we do have to play them, I’m confident if I’m a Yankees fan. After all, the Twins aren’t exactly veterans of the post-season, and if I remember correctly, that franchise hasn’t won a title in about 13 years. Oakland? They’ve been waiting around since 1989, and the team hasn’t even got out of the first round in four straight seasons! And if I’m the Yankees, I don’t worry about the Red Sox, either, since the next time they beat us in a game that counts will be the first.

So why don’t I, as a Yankee, feel that $183 million swagger? Why am I not more confident about my team’s chances in the post-season?

Could it be because Boston won 11 of the 19 regular-season meetings this season? Could it be that Oakland’s vaunted pitching staff could revert to form at any time and shut us down? Could it be that Minnesota is on paper a much better team when it comes to pitching match-ups?

If I’m the Yankees, I do feel confident. I feel secure in the knowledge that come the post-season, Oakland will gag in the first round, Minnesota’s questionable bats will be silenced (thus overcoming the pitching advantage), and Boston will do what it always has done.

But then again, what exactly have we done the last three seasons that would automatically make us the favorite? Sure, there have been a couple of pennants, but we were favored in every one of those post-season match-ups, and instead we lost a couple of World Series and a first-rounder to Anaheim. Sure, it’s impressive even to get there, but for New Yorkers, anything short of a championship is a disappointment, and it’s been four long years since the team won the whole chalupa. Furthermore, to be honest, those Yankees teams were in many ways better than the one assembled right now, particularly in the arms department.

Bah. The Yankees haven’t won anything grandiose in a while, but adding a solid relief corps, A-Rod, and past World Series champions like Gary Sheffield and Brown to an already-potent squad should be enough. This is undoubtedly one of the most talent-laden ball clubs ever put together, and more often than not, strength produces — especially when it counts. If I’m a Yankee, then that helps me sleep at night.

But if that team was composed as a virtually invincible force, how come the Red Sox are only three-and-a-half games behind in the division as of Monday? The Red Sox played practically the whole season without Nomar Garciaparra, Trot Nixon, Scott Williamson, and Ellis Burks, and also lost for extended periods AL batting champ Bill Mueller and Pokey Reese, yet they’re still hanging around. Giambi, Brown, and Mussina also missed some time for the Yankees, but the offense has for the most part been intact, and it still hasn’t been a runaway in the division.

If I’m the Yankees, I hope that things will work themselves out as they always seemed to in the glory years of 1996, ’98, ’99, and 2000. The cream, as they say, always rises to the top, and the Bronx Bombers’ roster has more of the whipped stuff than any other squad in baseball. But that’s about all I have to be cocky about.

Because truly, while Mussina and El Duque have pitched pretty well as of late, Javier Vazquez, Brown, and to an extent Lieber have not, and that poses all kinds of questions for the post-season rotation. Add to that an overused "big three" in the pen and a slew of set-up guys who have shown little this season, and you’ve got even more questions — with answers hard to come by.

So while Oakland has a penchant for choking, Minnesota apparently lacks the offensive firepower to contend for a pennant, and the Red Sox always seem to find a way to lose, things change. They always do. Eventually.

And if I’m the Yankees, I’m really not too sure about my team’s chances or its karma this year. I’m downright terrified that this could be the beginning of the end — of the swagger, of the championships, and of the curse.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com