New England Patriots fans have been accustomed to the catbird seat for a good long time now. The Super Bowl championship in 2002 was a wondrous surprise, the 2002-’03 letdown was disappointing but not totally unexpected, and 2003 — marked by the remarkable 15-game win streak to close out the season — offered another miraculous turn of events. The aura of invincibility that enveloped the team and its fans was unprecedented and satisfying, and speed bumps endured in Pittsburgh and Miami this past season did little to sully the team’s image in its backers’ minds. You can’t win ’em all, after all — even though for the longest time the team did exactly that. Fifteen wins in a row to run the table last season, six more to start this season, and a closing burst of eight of nine to put the finishing touches on a 14-2 2004 season make the team once again one of the favorites to clutch the glittering trophy in Jacksonville on the evening of February 6. I just don’t know, though. For many Patriots fans, it’s been eons since any kind of doubt about their team crept into their minds. The loss in Pittsburgh in late October was the streak-breaker after 21 straight wins, but injury-wise the team was at its worst that day, and no one could blame them for losing on the road to a fired-up team that ultimately finished 15-1. The loss in Miami? No good reason, other than a bad day (or rather, a bad final five minutes). Simple as that. The AFC semifinal clash with the Colts poses a real challenge for the Patriots, though. You can lecture me until the horsies come home that Bill Belichick has Peyton Manning’s number, that dome teams don’t play well in the elements, that the Colts haven’t won in Foxborough since 1995, and that New England has advantages in many key areas on both sides of the ball. I don’t care ... I have real doubts about this one, and I can’t imagine that I’m alone in that regard. And I’ve come to realize why this is such a wholly unfamiliar feeling: it’s because it’s been a mind-boggling 15 months since I had reservations about whether the Patriots were going to win that particular week. Fifteen months! The last time I felt that the team’s opponent was superior and would likely emerge victorious was October 5, 2003, when the Pats hosted the Steve McNair–led Tennessee Titans. The 3-1 Titans visited the 2-2 Patriots on the same gorgeous Sunday afternoon that the Red Sox rallied to beat the A’s, 5-4, in game four of the 2003 ALDS, knotting that series at two. David Ortiz (surprise) was the hero for the Sox, and as a result the Patriots’ surprising 38-30 victory was secondary news that day. Little did anyone know that New England’s hard-fought victory would be the one that ignited the record-setting win streak. Once the team began barreling along on that greased-lightning run toward Super Bowl glory, it was virtually unbeatable. The team has not been an underdog in the oddsmakers’ eyes since November of ’03 (at Indy), and that favorite-son streak has now extended through 23 games. Now the Colts come to town for the third time in a year. Despite the Colts’ lack of success against the Patriots, many feel that the torch will be passed from the mercurial Tom Brady and his mentor, Belichick, to Manning and Tony Dungy. Nonsense, you say. Who’s the home team in this match-up? The Pats. Who’s coming off a bye week? Pats. Who will benefit from the fact that the Gillette Stadium turf hasn’t been covered all week despite rain, snow, and meltdowns? Pats. Whose coach is acknowledged as the genius? The Pats’. What team has a documented recent history of winning the big games? Pats. Whose team defense is superior? The Pats’. Who has the best clutch kicker, particularly given the conditions? Pats. Who faced down the tougher schedule and survived more injuries? The Pats. (New England, from the tough AFC East, played 10 teams that finished .500 or better and won nine of 10, while Indy, playing in the AFC’s easiest division, played just eight teams of .500 or better, and won just five of them.) The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls and just completed a 14-2 season even though their secondary was (and still is) decimated by injury. Indianapolis hasn’t even been to the Super Bowl since 1971, when the team was based in Baltimore, and has lost the two AFC title games (’95 and ’04) it has participated in since. Belichick has four Super Bowl rings, and was part of five conference champions and eight division winners; Dungy has overseen a trio of conference finalists (not champs, finalists) during his tenure with the Bucs and Colts, and two division titles. It seems that history, brains, and talent favor the champions from New England. Still, the sight of Randall Gay, Troy Brown, Earthwind Moreland, and the like in Manning’s field of vision on Sunday as they try to defend the Colts’ vaunted receiving corps represents a downright mismatch. Give Indy a quick lead on Sunday, and the Pats will struggle; allow the elements and the coverage to slow down the Colt receivers and in the process permit the Pats to establish a lead of their own, and New England likely prevails. I have a feeling you’ll know the outcome of the game by how the first four possessions play out. Right now, I have no reason to believe that the Patriots will fail to deliver, but as mentioned, it’s been a while since I felt otherwise. Local fans probably have more faith than I right now that their team will advance to Pittsburgh next weekend. For their sakes, I hope I don’t find myself writing about the Celtics on Tuesday. "Sporting Eye" will return on Tuesday, January 18 at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com
|