E-Mail This Article to a Friend A Super Bowl preview BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

To spare you the keystrokes scrolling down to the end, I’ll tell you here in the very first sentence that I have little doubt that the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl XXXIX. Make that no doubt.

Of course, my faithful readers will counter, "Why should we listen to you? After all, you picked a 13-0 shutout by the Pats in last year’s game, and it turned into a high-scoring bonanza decided by three points! And don’t forget you also chose the Raiders to beat the Bucs the year before. What cachet do your predictions carry?"

I’ll grant you that my reputation in this regard is not exactly faith-inducing or wager-worthy, but I’ll simply break down things logically, and by the end of this column, it will be your prerogative to agree, or walk away unfazed.

Patriots. Eagles. Let’s take a look at the differences.

The Patriots are a squad experienced in big games — including Super Bowls, having visited three of the last four and four of the last nine. Philadelphia has eminent experience in NFC-title games, having played in four straight, but the Super Bowl is a whole ’nother story, and the franchise hasn’t been there since Reagan was inaugurated — the first time. The Eagles celebrated grandly when they beat Atlanta two weeks ago to advance to the big game; the Patriots casually walked off the Heinz Field turf, with little fanfare or hoopla. Therefore, the Philly players will likely be all wide-eyed and wondrous at the Super Bowl spectacle on Sunday, while the Patriots will look upon the get-together as simply old hat (or helmet, if you will). Nerves could undoubtedly be a factor for the Iggles.

Philadelphia won the NFC East — the league’s second-most woeful division, where the three other teams combined to win 18 games — with a 13-3 record. The Pats finished 14-2 in the NFL’s toughest division, and beat the playoff-bound Jets (10-6) and the surging Bills (9-7) twice each during the regular season. The Eagles’ opponents’ collective record this season was 140-159 (.468), while New England’s was 160-143 (.528). In the playoffs, Philly beat two "dome" teams (9-9 Minnesota and 12-6 Atlanta) on its home field to advance to Jacksonville, while the Patriots defeated two teams (the 13-5 Colts and the 16-2 Steelers) that were both ranked in the top five in most media outlets’ power rankings at the time of their meetings (and Pittsburgh was top-ranked at 16-1, riding a 15-game win streak, and playing at home).

Philly’s impressive road wins were, um, uh, hmmm . . . we may have to get back to you on that one. Lions, Bears, Browns, Cowboys, Giants, Redskins; not a seven-win squad in the bunch. Well, the Eagles did play the Steelers, too — but lost, 27-3, in week nine. Philly’s only regular-season victories over winning teams were a 15-10 victory over the Ravens and an admittedly impressive 47-17 home triumph over the Packers. Two, count ’em, two.

The Patriots decisively won road tilts at Buffalo, St. Louis, KC, and NYJ, along with home wins against the Colts (twice), Seahawks, Jets, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals (a total of eight regular-season wins against above-.500 teams). New England’s playoff wins, as noted above, provided incredible tests of will and ingenuity, yet neither game was even close on the scoreboard.

A week after the Steelers snapped the Patriots’ record 21-game win streak (34-20 at Heinz), they hosted the 7-0 Eagles. In what should have been a classic letdown game — especially with Pittsburgh missing leading rusher Duce Staley — the Steelers pounded Philly, 27-3. I know that Eagle RB Brian Westbrook was coming off an injury in that game (and carried only six times), but Philadelphia was completely outclassed, and the final score didn’t even reflect the true disparity between the two teams that day.

The Pats and Eagles have met twice in the last 17 months; in 2003, the Patriots, coming off a 31-0 opening-game loss in Buffalo, smoked the Eagles in Philly, 31-10. This past August, the two teams met again in the pre-season opener, and again New England dominated, 24-6. I know, exhibition games mean little, but in the first game of the season, you should be able to show something — and the Eagles have yet to do that against this Patriots team. And can one dismiss the fact that the Steelers dusted the Eagles in week eight, and the Patriots handily dismissed those same Steelers just two months later? I think not.

Mobile QBs have never posed a problem for a Belichick/Crennel defense, as Eagles signal-caller Donovan McNabb has (as mentioned) been summarily stymied in both his match-ups with the Patriots (including that 18-for-46, 186-yard performance in 2003 when he was sacked eight times) — as has the similarly mercurial Michael Vick (2-for-9, 22 yards, and sacked three times in a 24-10 home loss in November, 2001).

The Eagles, despite their penchant for falling short, have a handful of loudmouths on their squad, including the inimitable Terrell Owens (his rep precedes him), Freddie Mitchell (in a recent ESPN interview, he haughtily couldn’t name any members of the Pats’ secondary), and safety Brian Dawkins (who when asked on Media Day to rate the best at his position in the NFL, reportedly said, "I would put myself above the best"). The Patriots, meanwhile, have shown themselves to be masters of humility and character, and despite their success have provided little bulletin-board material.

The Eagles will be playing for their long-suffering fans on Sunday (even though the fandom’s level of fickleness and obnoxiousness are clearly off the charts), as well as for each other, but the Patriots’ emotional level will be doubly sky-high, since they will be playing their last game under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (off to the Irish) and defensive guru Romeo Crennel (likely to Browns-ville). Remember the last time a team wanted to give its departing top assistant a great send-off? Bears 46, Patriots 10. And what about the inspiration provided by Corey Dillon, appearing in his first Super Bowl, and the return of Richard Seymour, who as the Patriots’ best defensive back didn’t even play in the impressive dispatching of the Colts and Steelers?

I know the Eagles are good, and they deserve to be in this game. But I think that either Indy or Pittsburgh (which already has) could have beaten them had the Patriots not advanced to this point. But they have, and they know what to do now that they’re here. The New England brain trust has had two full weeks to game-plan the Eagles, and Philadelphia knows full well it has yet to figure out how to beat the Patriots — and two weeks will again prove to be not enough time.

It’s been 24 long years since the Eagles lost to Oakland, 27-10, in Super Bowl XV. They’re finally back to the big game, but they picked the wrong opponent to mess with, and the results will be remarkably the same.

Patriots 27, Eagles 10.

And next year, the question will be, can the Patriots snare their fourth title in Super Bowl XXXX?

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com