E-Mail This Article to a Friend Previewing the American League BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Let’s not mince words here. There are two teams in the American League that far surpass the others, and two more that are better than average. After that, the remaining 10 teams in the league are vastly unbalanced or just don’t have enough inherent talent. It’s not surprising, however, that the two top squads are also the proud owners of baseball’s top two payrolls, and were the same ones that last October waged an epic ALCS battle.

Fortunately, unlike in past years, the AL doesn’t seem to have that many truly awful teams. There really are only two, and that’s as much an indictment of those teams’ owners as it is the rosters that those moribund franchises will field.

But we’ll get to that.

Let’s start at the top and work downward. The AL East has pretty much already been decided; either the Yankees or the Red Sox will prevail, while the runner-up takes the league’s wild-card berth. After that, it really doesn’t matter how you mix and match the remaining three East squads. They’ll all be beaten up on a regular basis by their higher-salaried division mates, and will therefore trail by double-digit games by the time the All-Star break rolls around in July. Who’s the presumed division-winner? By a slight margin, the Yankees probably have more talent on the pitching side, what with the addition of three of the top free-agent hurlers available during the past off-season. This kind of splurging is out of character for the pinstriped ones, of course, but prying open the wallet in this instance may very well lift the team out of the championship-starved doldrums it has wallowed in for all of four straight seasons. Of course, there are questions: can Randy Johnson handle the spotlight that will be shone upon him (which was relatively absent in his previous stops in Seattle, Houston, and Phoenix)? Can Carl Pavano replicate his 18-win season (he was a sub-.500 pitcher the previous three years)? Does Jaret Wright have the mental make-up to succeed under these circumstances (he proved to be a disappointment in Cleveland and San Diego prior to his 15-8 break-out year for the Braves last year)? We’ll see.

The Sox are probably better offensively, but they likely can’t match the nightly gems that will be turned in by the Bombers’ rotation. Barring injury to key components of either team, however, the race should remain close all season long. Beyond that, I think Baltimore won’t benefit from adding Sammy Sosa and his huge strikeout totals (and the Orioles’ pitching is downright woeful). Toronto lost Carlos Delgado, but I trust that JP Ricciardi’s moves as GM will carry the Jays’ youth movement into a third-place finish. Tampa Bay, despite many years of losing while earning plenty of revenue-sharing dough, remains one of the two worst teams (along with KC) in the league, and it’s done little in the off-season to help its cause from a talent perspective — especially starting-pitching-wise.

A lot of folks have made the Twins a fashionable pick in the Central, and why not? Their pitching — anchored by Cy Young winner Johan Santana — is top-to-bottom the best in the league (and virtually all homegrown). Still, I’m not sold on their bats, and that’s why I think that with a little luck, the surging Indians could give Minnesota a run for its money in this division. The Tribe’s got some pitching problems right out of the gate, but despite a cast of no-names, I think that former Sox product Eric Wedge can build upon last year’s surprising 80-win season. Signing oft-injured Juan Gonzalez was a colossal waste of moola, but free-agent pick-ups Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton could turn around their careers here if the breaks fall Cleveland’s way. Detroit improved by 29 games last season after a 43-win 2003 campaign, but a sleeker (hmmm ...) Pudge Rodriguez will have his hands full this season trying to coax solid performances out of the Tigers’ subpar starting pitchers. Two former Yankees bolster the White Sox’ 2005 rotation, but since their names aren’t Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, it’s unlikely to make much difference for the South Siders. Righties "El Duque" Hernandez and Jose Contreras will find that there won’t be as much offensive firepower to carry them to easy wins as there was in the Bronx — especially with Magglio Ordoñez signing with Detroit and Frank Thomas on the DL (surprise!). The Royals took the promise of a surprising 83-win season in 2003 and lost 25 games off that total last season. Now they’re playing a full season without Carlos Beltran and boast Mike Sweeney as their lone "marquee" player. Everything is not up-to-date in Kansas City, so big changes are needed there — and MLB should perhaps step in to make sure things go as far as they can.

The West race will be fun to watch this season, as all four teams, except for the perennially pitching-rich A’s, have improved. Moneyball maven Billy Beane supposedly knew what he was doing by trading two-fifths of his 2004 rotation (Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson), yet the additions Beane made this off-season (catcher Jason Kendall arrives from Pittsburgh) have been negligible. After folding late and handing division honors to the Angels last season (despite a 91-win campaign), Oakland is very likely to find itself in a most unfamiliar spot this season: the basement (for the first time since 1998). The A’s will be fighting it out with last year’s cellar tenant, the Mariners. Despite improving drastically on the offensive side with the additions of Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexon, the Mariners haven’t addressed their biggest shortcoming — starting pitching. Who’s their "ace," anyway? And why hire a rehash like Mike Hargrove (whose Orioles never won more than 74 games during his four-year stint at the helm) to manage here when somebody like, oh, maybe Grady Little is available? The Rangers surprised everyone by hanging around the divisional race until the final weeks, and despite questionable starting pitching, Texas won 89 games and finished just three games out. They will continue to pound the ball mercilessly this year. Still, the Rangers did little to enhance their suspect rotation, and they’ll likely have to rely on the likes of towering rookie Chris Young (gotta like that fella’s name), who joined the club last August and even put the kibosh on the Red Sox’ 10-game win streak in early September when he shut them down at Fenway. By default, then, the Angels should likely prevail in the division despite their ridiculous new moniker (the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) and their shaky rotation. How much longer will that tub o’ lard Bartolo Colon continue to anchor the staff — and how much do you trust the rest of the starters? The bullpen’s solid despite losing Troy Percival to free agency, and with any luck Orlando Cabrera can bring to Anaheim the same spark he brought to Boston last August. But the Halos’ primary strengths are in their patented aggressiveness on the base paths and in their outfield, with three certified bashers (Garret Anderson, Vladimir Guerrero, and Steve Finley) patrolling the gaps. The defending division champs should also be able to survive the departures of sparkplug David Eckstein and slugger Troy Glaus to St. Louis and Arizona, respectively.

Coming Monday: A glance at the National League, and be sure to check back on Thursday, April 7 for a special "Opening Day" supplement on this site.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com