E-Mail This Article to a Friend Gauging the National League BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

It came to me a few weeks back as I wandered the hallowed halls of the Baseball Hall of Fame, in Cooperstown. There, on the third floor, just inside the door of the Sports Illustrated cover gallery, were a pair of side-by-side laminated covers from October 2003. Occasionally, SI will publish different covers for different regions of the country, and for that particular week — with both the Cubs and Red Sox seemingly on a collision course to meet in a historic World Series — the magazine featured the Cubs’ Kerry Wood on one cover, with the Red Sox’ Pedro Martinez on the other. The tag line: DO YOU BELIEVE?

Then, as everyone knows, it happened. Maybe not because of the storied (and lately, fictitious) SI cover jinx, but perhaps because of otherworldly forces, both teams managed to blow their respective leagues’ pennants when five lousy outs stood between the Cubs and the Sox meeting in the most anticipated Fall Classic ever. Chicago blew it in a hailstorm of Marlins hitting (wrapped around a controversial foul ball), while the Sox went down to defeat on the weary arm of Martinez, the failing wisdom of manager Grady Little, and the improbable bat of little-used Yankee third baseman Aaron Boone.

The Sox, of course, went on to shed their demons last season in most unlikely fashion. The Cubs, on the other hand, managed to surrender a seemingly-in-hand wild-card berth by dropping seven of their last nine to fall three games behind the Astros for that final playoff slot.

Two covers, two teams; one sought and claimed redemption, the other gets its turn this year. That’s what I’m predicting, at least. The Cubs — anchored by the only Red Sox player to be traded prior to the deadline last season — will win the World Series. Do I believe? Cautiously.

Oh, it doesn’t seem plausible now, what with both of Chicago’s aces hurting and the closer situation a major question mark. But I think destiny steps in to Nomar Garciaparra’s toe-tapping spikes and helps #5 take the long-suffering franchise and city to the ultimate height — just one year after the other cursed organization reversed its fortunes.

Last week we previewed the AL race; today, the Nationals (and the National League).

There should be a doozy of a race in the NL East this year, with the Braves and Marlins deemed the front-runners, while the formerly woebegone Mets have taken expensive steps in order to return to relevance. Atlanta was expected to see its 12-year stretch atop the division come to an end last year when it lost key members of its vaunted pitching staff, but instead the Braves secured lucky number 13 during an exciting 96-win campaign. With the addition of A’s cast-off Tim Hudson and the return of John Smoltz to the rotation, the Braves should again have enough to capture the division. Still, the aging offense could be just enough of a detriment to allow the Marlins to return to the playoffs (and if they don’t win the division outright, I expect the Fish will take the league’s wild-card berth by a nose over the Cardinals). Carlos Delgado’s arrival, combined with the hopes of a return-to-form rotation, give Floridians hope for their team’s third world title in nine years (strange as that may sound). Pedro and Carlos Beltran bring big-name cachet to the struggling Mets, but the rest of their aging staff and the questionable bullpen will likely keep New York from joining its cross-town brethren in the playoff picture. I have real questions about the Phillies’ starting pitching, and bringing the much-traveled Kenny Lofton on board also could counteract the positive vibes accompanying new manager Charlie Manuel. Finally, moving the Expos out of the urban wasteland that was Montreal and bringing them to the political wasteland that is our nation’s capital was a long-overdue decision, but one that isn’t likely to pay immediate dividends as far as victories go — especially with Livan Hernandez and Esteban Loaiza considered the Nationals’ aces.

Another barn-burner likely in the NL Central, too, but I’ll give the Cubs the nod for now because of the aforementioned Monsieur Hamm and fate’s fickle fingers manning the wheel. I know, it doesn’t quite compute given the all-star offense that St. Louis will again field on a nightly basis, but I still have doubts about a rotation that was exposed as mediocre during last year’s World Series. Mark Mulder’s also been elevated to the level of Cardinal, having been the second of Oakland’s "Big Three" to be dealt this off-season, but the other Redbird starters don’t exactly conjure up memories of McNally, Palmer, and Cuellar. (Those were the starters of the famed Orioles teams of the mid ’70s, if you’re too young to remember.) The Astros losing Beltran along with Wade Miller (to Boston), Jeff Kent (to LA), and Lance Berkman (to the DL until at least May) will hurt Houston’s chances, and Roger Clemens’s deal with the devil for eternal youth is bound to expire any month now. Milwaukee’s got an up-and-coming squad that should eventually benefit when its owners decide to expend a little more resources to secure talent, but for now they’re still only better-than-average. The Reds should fight the Brew Crew for third, while the Pirates have few aspirations other than finishing above .500 — a level they’ve managed to avoid for the past 12 seasons.

The Padres improved by 23 games last season over their 2003 last-place finish, and quietly the team has brought itself back into the realm of respectability in the NL West. The Pods don’t have too many names that immediately come to mind. But I think the Giants’ loss of Barry Bonds for who knows how long, along with the Dodgers’ complete transformation (despite a division title last season), opens the door for San Diego to return to the post-season for the first time since their ill-fated match0up with the Yankees in the 1998 World Series. I’ll pencil in the Giants here for the runner-up only if Bonds has returned by the All-Star break; if not, then their aging offense will be lucky to take the third spot. The Dodgers, as mentioned, could be a factor, but I see too many potential head cases in the rotation (Derek Lowe, Jeff Weaver, Scott Erickson) and too few big bats (given the departure of Alex Cora and Adrian Beltre) to duplicate last year’s 93-win season. As for the division’s other two entities, the Diamondbacks last season became the first NL team to lose 110-plus games since the 1962 Mets, and then they went and traded lone star Randy Johnson to the Yankees. Enough said. The Rockies? They haven’t won more than 83 games once in their 12-year history (while their expansion mates of ’93, the Marlins, have gone out and won two World Series), and have had but two winning seasons during the course of their dubious existence. There is little doubt that this year’s Rockies incarnation will find it easy to finish in the division basement for the fourth time since 1999.

The time for talking is over, and it’s time for the ballgames to begin.

Attention, Boston Celtics: your brief time in the local limelight is now complete. Thanks for holding the fort!

Coming Thursday: a special "Opening Day at Fenway" supplement on this site, and in the pages of the Boston Phoenix.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com