E-Mail This Article to a Friend Baseball’s AL pennant race approaches the three-quarter pole BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Last week, we broke down the National League races with just a quarter of the season left to play; today, the Junior Circuit.

AL East. What, you expected something besides a New York–Boston battle? The Yanks and Sox have finished one-two in the East each season dating back to 1998, and Boston (68-47, 4.5 games up) is looking to hold off the Bombers and capture its first divisional crown since 1995. The Red Sox have led the division uninterrupted since July 19, and have been out of first place only one day since June 24. Can Boston hang on? Winning the East is doubly important this season, since the wild-card berth most likely won’t go to the division’s runner-up this season, as it has in the past two years. Big leads have come and gone in this rivalry before (see 1978 in particular), but after last year’s championship, Boston is less likely to hear or fear the Pinstripers’ footsteps as the final weeks unfold. Add to that a favorable schedule down the stretch — after the current 10-game road trip, 25 of the Sox’ final 37 contests are at Fenway — and a pitching situation far superior to the Yankees’ right now, and Boston should be able to keep New York at bay. Maybe. The New Yorkers have certainly valiantly stayed afloat despite unmercifully bad fortune striking their rotation, but then again, a $200 million team should be void of excuses — especially when the high-priced offense has largely been spared from the injury bug. Impressively, Toronto is five games over .500 even at this late date. Though the Jays are eight games back with little hope of winning the division, they’ve still given Boston fits this year (having won eight of 11 against the Sox) and will continue to be a factor in the coming years — if they continue to invest and spend well. Just two months ago, the Orioles led Boston by a full three games in the East; now they sit 12 games back — having lost 15 games in the standings in just eight weeks — as the result of a 15-42 swoon since late June. Fourth place seems secure for the Birds at this point, since the downtrodden Devil Rays (46-72) are still another dozen games behind. But the Orioles’ fall from grace (and the division lead) has been frightful.

AL Central. No such collapse would appear to await the Central-leading White Sox (74-41), who with a 12-and-a-half-game lead and the best record in the majors would seem a lock for their first post-season since 2000. The league’s best pitching staff (an AL-best 3.66 ERA) has offset a so-so offense (20th-best in MLB), but the bulk of the White Sox’ success has been their ability to win against their division mates (they’re 32-9 against the other Central teams). Second-place Cleveland (63-55) was expected to show much improvement this season, but the Tribe’s record is exactly the same as it was a year ago, when it ultimately finished 80-82. Minnesota had the inside track to the wild card just a few weeks ago, but now they’re just 60-57 and 15 games back after an 8-15 stretch that also saw them lose Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter for the season. Detroit’s high hopes for 2005 have also taken a hit; the Tigers (at 55-61, 19.5 games back) have proven themselves to be decidedly mediocre despite the majors’ seventh-best offense. Finally, KC is 38-78 and undeniably headed for its third 100-loss season in the past four years.

AL West. Where there once was no race to be seen, now there’s a doozy out west, thanks to the resurgent A’s. On Memorial Day, Oakland was 17-32 and in the basement, 12.5 games out of first. Even as late as June 17, the A’s were 27-39 and 11 out. Out of nowhere, though — in accordance with their recent history — the A’s went on a 40-11 tear, and at 67-50 the team is just one game behind the division-leading Angels. The Halos seemed to be coasting along unchallenged toward a West crown until Oakland’s run, but LA’s bullpen has been exposed of late; after playing .500 baseball over the past six weeks, their status as a legitimate championship contender has been called into question. Back on June 19, the Rangers were 37-29 and just a game-and-a-half back. Since then, however, Texas has lost 32 of its last 51 and fallen a distant 12 games back. Baseball’s eighth-best offense hasn’t lately come close to making up for the struggles of its pitching staff (Texas’s team ERA is a sky-high 5.16, 26th-best — or fifth-worst, if you like). Finally, at 49-67, Seattle’s just playing out the string toward its second-straight basement finish after four consecutive 90-win seasons.

Potential post-season match-ups: LAA at Chicago; Oakland at Boston. Prediction: Boston at Chicago, unless Oakland maintains its torrid pace through September. I give either Boston or Oakland the edge over the ChiSox for the AL pennant, and then on we go to St. Louis to close down Busch Stadium for good.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com.