E-Mail This Article to a Friend NFL Preview: the AFC By Christopher Young

It’s a simple question, really: has any AFC team improved itself enough to dethrone the Patriots as conference champions? And if no one has, has New England fallen enough from its lofty perch to allow another team to sneak in and grab that coveted Super Bowl berth?

The AFC again will boast a number of solid teams, and Sports Illustrated ranks eight AFC teams among its top 12 NFL teams overall. No surprise there: last year it seemed apparent that the Pats, Steelers, Colts, or even the Chargers could have knocked off the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

So how will this year’s AFC play out? Read on.

AFC East: I hear the New Yorkers squawking about how their teams have gotten better and could finish top of the heap, but I’m not having any of it. I learned from last year not to pick against the Patriots, and I haven’t seen enough downturn in coaching intelligence or personnel to warrant handing the East crown to anyone else. The only thing that could derail the Patriots early on is a brutal first-half schedule. Letting Drew Bledsoe go was probably the best thing for the Bills’ chances, but I have a tough time imagining J.P. Losman stepping in and supplanting Tom Brady & Co. atop the division. The Bills rebounded from an 0-4 start in 2004 to finish 9-7, and only an ugly late-season loss to the Steelers’ second stringers prevented Buffalo from reaching the post-season. The defense is aging but still top-notch, and RB Willis McGahee should flourish as long as the offensive line remains cohesive. I may be the only one suspicious of Chad Pennington’s surgically repaired shoulder, but that and the logical slowdown of Curtis Martin’s running prowess could stymie the Jets’ hopes of a return to the playoffs. NY’s O-line is dynamite, but I have some doubts about the defense, particularly DE John Abraham (lengthy contract holdout) and ex-Pat Ty Law (injury-prone and past his prime). Finally, Dolphins fans have reason to feel optimistic for the future — that is, years down the road. New coach Nick Saban is a Belichick protégé, which always is a good thing, but it doesn’t change the fact that prodigal son Ricky Williams will miss the first four games to a drug suspension and that Gus Frerotte is their QB. Look for an 0-7 start to begin things, and then a gradual turnaround.

AFC North: I like the Steelers to repeat atop the North, but not at 15-1 again. WR Plaxico Burress is gone, both starting RBs are on the shelf to start the season, and people are going to start solving second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger — just you watch. Not far behind Pittsburgh will be the Ravens, with their legendary defense but still relying on an untested Kyle Boller to guide the offense. RB Jamal Lewis, fresh from the slammer, should help offset Boller’s deficiencies, though he enters the season with a nagging ankle injury. The Bengals are coming off consecutive 8-8 seasons under Marvin Lewis, but that’s still a vast improvement over the Bungles teams of the recent past. Whether they capture their first winning record since 1990 is up in the air, but they’ll ride the arm of QB Carson Palmer and the legs of RB Rudi Johnson in hopes of not replicating the last two seasons’ 1-4 starts. Finally, the Browns will still stink despite the arrival of former Pats wizard Romeo Crennel.

AFC SOUTH: Is this the year for Peyton Manning to get off the schneid? Or is the seven-year pro due for an injury that KOs the Colts’ chances? The team has been riddled by injuries in the pre-season, but supposedly it’s made enough improvements on defense to improve their chances come January. Methinks we heard that last year. Right on Indy’s hooves in the South should be the Jaguars, who need QB Byron Leftwich’s continued maturation and for Fred Taylor to stay off the injured list consistently. Houston takes third but realistically still should be a lot better than they are after three years in the NFL. David Carr should be okay on offense, but the Texans’ defense is coming off a year in which it ranked near the bottom of every NFL defensive category. Finally, the Titans pried RB Travis Henry from the Bills and have a new offensive guru in Norm Chow, but Steve McNair’s health is always an obstacle, and Tennessee fields the youngest team in the league.

AFC WEST: I’ll stick with the Chargers out west, even though they’re softer than some of the other conference powerhouses. A lot of folks like the Chiefs’ chances, but I still think that Trent Green, Priest Holmes, and head coach Dick Vermeil are past their primes. The defense is enhanced by the addition of former Fin Patrick Surtain, but KC still has too many holes there. The Broncos? I give up. Finally, the renegade Raiders will likely start 0-5 and then find that Randy Moss is not all that great a team guy (even though he fits right in here).

Monday: the NFC preview.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com