WINS AND LOSSES
Caucuses count
BY SETH GITELL
You are what your win-loss record says you are, a wise sage (former Patriots coach Bill Parcells) once said. That admonition applies to the results of the Massachusetts caucuses last Saturday. Senate president Tom Birmingham and State Treasurer Shannon O’Brien took the bulk of delegates over the weekend. And former secretary of labor Robert Reich — in what was wrongly seen as a surprise by some commentators — did well; he won more than 400 delegates, giving him a good chance of meeting the ballot requirement to garner 15 percent of the delegates at the state Democratic convention May 31–June 1.
Reich did exactly what he was supposed to do during Democratic caucuses last Saturday. He organized an energetic group of supporters — many of them relative strangers to the machinations of ward politics — to blitz caucus halls in key areas in Cambridge, Brookline, and the western part of the state. Reich wisely spent what little money he had raised on radio ads in the days leading up to the caucuses, urging supporters to participate. For the first time since Michael Dukakis defeated Ed King for the Democratic nomination in 1982, those unaccustomed to the party process walked into ward halls and voted — for Reich.
Though former Democratic National Committee chair Steve Grossman’s campaign says it has the support of 500 delegates, a portion of these are ex officio delegates whose status is automatic. In what was a blow to Grossman, Reich shut him out of Brookline, where he had expected to do well, and cut into his base in Newton as well. Obviously, Grossman’s strategy of distributing campaign videos to previous state delegates failed. Despite his poor name-recognition, he steadfastly refused to spend money on TV advertising, even as rumblings of support for Reich grew louder.
If Grossman had spent some of his money earlier and created more buzz, Reich might never have entered the race. The Grossman camp, which claims a third-place performance, is optimistic. "It’s not just about Brookline and Newton," says Grossman spokeswoman Alex Zaroulis. "This is about a message that will resonate across the entire commonwealth, where we did surprisingly well from Lexington to Hingham. We feel we are on our way to getting our 15 percent."
Warren Tolman also found the caucuses something of a disappointment. Tolman, who put Clean Elections at the center of his campaign, garnered around 200 delegates. Reich cut into him in the western parts of the state. But the Tolman campaign, buoyed by the Supreme Judicial Court’s ruling in its favor last month, is also optimistic. "If we get our money, we’ll get our 15 percent at the convention," says Tolman spokeswoman Karen Grant.
There’s another wrinkle in this as well. O’Brien, who named millionaire businessman Chris Gabrieli as her running mate last week, forged a coy deal with Reich to split the delegates in Brookline. On the surface, this arrangement merely reflects O’Brien’s pragmatism — a decision to escape from Brookline with some guaranteed votes while showing willingness to allow another prominent Democrat to get on the ballot. But there’s more to it. In a statewide primary, Grossman represents a wild card for O’Brien. The Newton businessman’s got something she lacks: money ($2.1 million in cash on hand versus her $1.2 million). And he wants to appeal to the same fiscally centrist voters. Gabrieli strengthens O’Brien in these two areas. Reich, by humiliating Grossman on his home turf, can help her get rid of him.
It gets even better for O’Brien. A field that ends up Birmingham-O’Brien-Reich would be perfect for her. She could try to paint Birmingham as a hack’s hack, while depicting Reich as a member of the loony left. While Reich will battle for the "outsider" status in the primary battle, O’Brien, perhaps thinking that Reich will be capped by his left-leaning politics, will focus on mainstream Democrats — particularly those in the voter-rich areas in the Route 128/495 belt and the central part of the state. Nobody knows, of course, how far Reich’s charisma can take him, but O’Brien seems to have a keen sense of the state’s electoral dynamics.
For his part, Reich says he knows nothing about O’Brien’s strategizing. "I could game it in a lot of ways," Reich says. "I just want to inject a lot of energy into the party."
That said, you are what your win-loss record says you are. Things are looking good for O’Brien, Birmingham, and Reich — not as good for Tolman and Grossman.
Issue Date: February 7 - 14, 2002
Back to the News and Features table of contents.